Cover Story: India-Pakistan: From Breakdown to Detente and Entente Cordiale

I walk down the same street/ There is a deep hole in the sidewalk/
I see it there/I still fall in... it's a habit./I walk down the same street/
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk/I walk around it./
I walk down another street.
-- Sogyal Rinpoche,
Tibetan Book of the Living and Dying

Colombo, July 29, 1998: Talks break down within hours of the summit

Atal Bihari Vajpayee took the bus instead. As a result, both India and Pakistan have journeyed to a totally different street -- paved now with hope, not bitterness.

The ride took less than an hour. But from Pokhran to Chagai and thence to Wagah, Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif, his fellow traveller, had traversed an incredible distance. Especially in a relationship that had dipped so low that, as External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh in his resonant voice, put it, "Every little addition is regarded as an additionality."

So why has the spring of '99 brought so much warmth and good cheer in a 50-year relationship where drought and hostility was the norm? More importantly, will the bonhomie last?

To be cynical would be safe. After all, when President Zia-ul-Haq flew into Delhi in 1987 he got a similar reception for his version of cricket diplomacy. And the following year, after Zia died in an air crash, prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi again held out the promise of change. At that time too the summit meeting in Islamabad was hailed as a "historic" one. But after the first flush, which saw the signing of an agreement not to attack each other's nuclear facilities, the hardliners in Pakistan struck back and the relationship went into deep freeze again.

New York, September 23, 1998: The two PMs agree to resume official-level talks

Nor have the events of the past eight months following the Pokhran and Chagai nuclear tests held out much promise. When Sharif and Vajpayee first met at the SAARC Summit in Colombo last July, the talks broke down within hours,with Sharif terming it a "zero meeting". The second encounter in New York last September, held in the backdrop of the UN Assembly, saw both of them signal a detente and a resumption of talks.

However, when the foreign secretary-level talks resumed a month later in Islamabad, it turned out to be a desultory affair. Both sides talked at each other rather than to each other, especially on Kashmir. Nothing unusual here in what was always termed as the dialogue of the deaf. In November when the two sides met again to discuss freeing items of trade, they were still hard of hearing. Instead of hundreds of items planned, Pakistan whittled the list down to a disappointing 18. Miffed, Indian diplomats thought it wasn't worth the expense to fly so many officials down for so little.

By the end of the year, even cricket diplomacy between the two countries appeared to be floundering with the Shiv Sena trying to bury the short-lived detente in the holes its vandals had dug up on the Ferozeshah Kotla pitch in Delhi.

Yet, the deep undercurrents of change had begun unnoticed in those nine months. The impetus may have been given when the earth shook with multiple atomic explosions in the subcontinent. In many cities Pakistanis danced deliriously on the streets at what they hailed as a befitting reply to India's tests. As Zafar Ahmad, a shopkeeper in Lahore puts it, "We felt we were finally equal."

Forces of Dissent: Sharif has still to overcome the stiff resistance from the hardliners

That sense of parity also brought with it a responsibility for the two new overtly nuclear powers. Now was the time to act with maturity and move quickly to build up a series of confidence measures to ease the hair-trigger situation. Initially the hardliners did their chest-beating act and for a while the two leaders were prisoners of their domestic compulsions.

But Sharif and Vajpayee are also concerned over the terrible prospect of a nuclear war. Being the heads of government, they decided to do something about it. That meant taking charge of the talks directly. As Pakistan Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz points out, "Officials follow the brief, but politicians changed the brief." And if there are two leaders who can make a decisive difference to Indo-Pakistan relations without their motives being suspect, they are Vajpayee and Sharif. Both have validated their country's nuclear prowess so nobody can accuse them of bartering away their nation's security. And Vajpayee represents a party, the BJP, which has always been hawkish towards Pakistan.

A lot of hard-headed calculations went into the bus diplomacy. If Sharif moved away from Pakistan's demand for a third-party negotiation, meaning the US, there was a rider. When questioned persistently on whether Pakistan had finally given in to the Indian position of Kashmir being a bilateral dispute, Aziz let it slip, saying, "We have to exhaust the bilateral process before we can go back to the international community saying 'we tried'. If in three to six months we find that India is not being flexible we can seek mediation again."

FROM ISI'S TERRORISM TO INDIA'S RESILIENCE

On Kashmir there's still no give and take. But the dynamics are changing. The prospects:
ť India's position is unchanged: The time for redrawing maps is over.
ť Pakistan now says it only wants self-determination for Kashmiris.
ť In the October 1998 round of talks, both sides merely "reiterated their respective positions".
ť Shelling on the LoC has declined and militant activity confined to isolated attacks on security forces and soft targets in remote villages.
ť The Indian Army's role has reduced with the state police and paramilitary forces at the forefront.
ť There is little likelihood of escalation leading to war. Kashmir is less of a flashpoint.

Sharif and Aziz seemed to be working to a pre-planned strategy. While Aziz reiterated Kashmir was the core issue, he consistently reminded everyone of Vajpayee's statement at the G-15 summit in Jamaica last week in which he acknowledged that Kashmir was a crucial issue in determining the "content and contours" of the relations between the two countries. Aware of the domestic pressure that could build up once the euphoria died down, Aziz said, "Bus and cricket diplomacy are all very well but the Pakistani public opinion cannot indefinitely sustain a dialogue that does not record substantive progress on the core issue of Kashmir." In short, Sharif and Aziz were also building an escape route for Pakistan and themselves if the talks began to flounder.

With the militant Jamaat-e-Islami already breathing down his neck, Sharif is also aware of the forces against rapprochement. There are no dearth of sceptics about the latest initiative. Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, while welcoming the talks, reiterated that progress on Kashmir is still the key. In Islamabad, Lt-General (retd) Hamid Gul , former chief of the ISI, dubbed the trip a gimmick, saying, "There can be no moving away from the UN resolutions on Kashmir. That is the bottom line."

Meanwhile, Vajpayee realised that it was important for India to show its willingness to go more than half the distance to continue a dialogue with Pakistan despite rebuffs. He also brought in a crucial difference -- he was willing to move quickly on India's promises. As Jaswant Singh puts it: "The difference that we began to make as compared to governments in the past was between pronouncements and implementation. We have implemented."

FROM AGNI TO GHAURI

Significant progress is likely to be made on the nuclear front to ease the hair-trigger situation. Some of the issues are:
ť Delhi wants a no-first-use pledge. Pakistan seeks reduction in conventional weapons in a move to have parity with India.
ť Pakistan sees little value in India's offer to extend treaty not to attack N-facilities to cover population centres and economic targets.
ť Pakistan wants no-war pact while India feels that the pledge is covered by the Simla Agreement and UN Charter.
ť Pakistan wants strategic restraint by India while Delhi wants a minimum deterrent capability that factors in China.
ť The real movement forward could come if both sides agree on nuclear risk-reduction measures with secure communication links between the PMs and armed forces HQs.
ť Greater transparency is expected on testing of ballistic missiles and better rapport on international nuclear treaties like the CTBT.

The bus from Delhi to Lahore was a symbolic start. Before that India had begun to sweeten the relationship. Faced with a shortage of sugar, the Government cleared imports worth Rs 387 crore from Pakistan. Allegations by Pakistani politicians that the mills belonged to Sharif's family were ignored. Vajpayee and Singh then moved on to another area that had been talked of for years -- purchasing power from Pakistan.

Hectic negotiations were started between power ministry officials from both sides. Initially the proposal was for 2,000 MW, but there was a technical hitch. Although the frequency of power distribution is similar, the Indian grid is subject to wild fluctuations. Which meant that connectivity with Pakistan power plants would be a hurdle as the wires would frequently burn down. So the figure was quickly scaled down to 500 MW and then 300 MW, made feasible by setting up an isolating sub-station that would make the transfer of power compatible. Talks are now on to arrive at a proper tariff.

So even while official-level talks were floundering, Vajpayee kept them moving on different fronts. His threat to dismiss the Maharashtra Government if the Shiv Sena continued to create trouble over the Pakistan cricket tour showed how determined he was to keep the dialogue going. Given the excellent personal rapport they enjoy, and with Singh formally joining as external affairs minister in December, the two were able to move quickly on vital foreign-policy issues. It also brought an end to the confusion created by the host of dissonant voices dabbling in foreign affairs. When Sharif made the offer to Vajpayee to take the bus to Lahore, it was Singh, without consulting his MEA officials, who called up the prime minister in Jamaica and told him to agree. Result: India seized the diplomatic initiative.

If the Vajpayee-Sharif summit diplomacy is expected to go far, it is because the circumstances under which they meet are vastly different from the Benazir-Rajiv tryst. Benazir was a prisoner of the triumvirate that usually ruled Pakistan -- the president, the army and the ISI -- and was unable to adopt an independent stance. In the past year, Sharif has not only tamed the presidency, he has put the army in its place and also won a major battle with the judiciary. In doing so, he has emerged as the most powerful prime minister in Pakistan's history.

Also, unlike in the late '80s when Kashmir was spinning out of control, a decade later India has reasserted its ability to rule the state. There is an elected government in Kashmir and the army's role has been considerably reduced. Pakistan finds it no longer gets the international mileage for crying hoarse about Kashmir. So Sharif needs to get his country out of the no-win corner on Kashmir without appearing to compromise on its basic stand: an uphill task.

FROM INDIA'S CHEMICALS TO PAKISTAN'S POWER

A boost in trade could provide the glue to cement ties between the two countries.
ť Currently unofficial trade of over $650 million (Rs 2,760 crore) annually tops the official one by Rs 2,000 crore.
ť Pakistan intransigence has prevented the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement from getting off the ground.
ť Although items like Indian tea and textile machinery are cheaper, Pakistan continues to import these from Africa and other countries.
ť A recent breakthrough has been the purchase of 300 MW of power from Pakistan. The plan is to go up to 2,000 MW.
ť If there is even a partial lowering of barriers, formal trade is expected to double, but requires Sharif's green signal.

There is another major factor that is driving Sharif's bus: Pakistan's failing economy. The IMF bailed him out by reinstating the extended fund facility programme worth $1.6 billion. Pakistan's external debt today stands at $32 billion. Exports continue to be low. The fiscal deficit is ballooning. And the escalating prices are beginning to make the common man restless. The businessman in him makes Sharif realise that he has got to get the economy quickly back on the rails. One way is to cut down on defence expenditure -- and descalating tensions with India could help him push through such cuts.

That is an imperative that drives Vajpayee too. Apart from defence cuts, the two countries realise that they must make a move on signing the CTBT, a precondition of the US for fully lifting economic sanctions and also to demonstrate to the world that they are responsible nuclear powers. If either side is seen as giving in to US pressure, domestic political parties would nuke any such plan. But if they project it as a move to bring lasting peace within the region and as a goal they reached themselves, it has a much better chance of flying. They also sense that there may be popular support for such an entente cordiale between the two countries.

Yet, the road to detente is a long and winding one. Unless the two countries are able to put Kashmir on the backburner for a while the goodwill may be short-lived. As for trade, which offers the best platform to put relations on an even keel, the hawks in Pakistan want to calibrate it with progress on Kashmir. Sharif will have to use his business skills to break the deadlock.

Perhaps the most significant movement forward has come quite correctly on the nuclear front. It has also given the two countries a chance they have been missing for 50 years -- to catch a bus that could keep them firmly on the road to peace.