May 10, 1999

Determined to project herself as a key player in national politics -- without or without power -- a new Sonia Gandhi bargains, compromises and manipulates to ensure the Congress' primacy.

By Swapan Dasgupta, Sumit MItra, Javed M Ansari and Harinder Baweja

The fortnight from AIADMK General Secretary J. Jayalalitha's regal arrival in Delhi to the dissolution of the Lok Sabha has been an involuntary roller-coaster ride for India. With governance on hold and the economy frozen in uncertainty, normal life was taken over by the politics of speculation. It was a fortnight of comings and goings, of shadowy intrigues, cynical deals, bluff and deceit. A fortnight in which fortunes see-sawed and disinformation clouded the air. It was a fortnight that exposed Indian democracy at its disagreeable best.

In time to come, as the election gets underway, the realities of what happened and why are certain to be clouded by emerging myths, sinister conspiracy theories and convenient evasions. Post-facto rationalisations are useful in detecting broad patterns but are inconvenient in mapping the immediacy of events. More important, the winners write history in a manner of their choosing. But this was a crisis that had no winners.

Looking back, there were six crucial moments that shaped the final outcome. A different turn and the story may have had another ending. They were happenings that caused consternation and have so far evaded explanations. In investigating these six questions, India Today has relied on the reconstruction of events by the players themselves and privileged information. In a sphere where conspiracies abound, we have tried to separate facts from expedient theories. The events being too recent, many participants were loath to be quoted since the past isn't always a guide to the future. At least not before new friendships are struck, the past overlooked and the votes counted.

Why did the BJP-led government lose?
In a game of bluff the government smiled a little too early. Badal worked on Chautala and Advani sent policemen to guard friendly MPs. But the fifth column on the Opposition benches was told not to bother. Sangma made sure his message reached Balayogi.

On April 7, when it was clear that Jayalalitha's 18 MPs were lost to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, home minister L.K. Advani was asked for his prognosis. "It looks like a minority government," he said. "I'm optimistic about survival, though not entirely confident."

Advani had reason to hedge his bets. In terms of numbers, the government appeared to have 259 MPs against 273 of the combined Opposition, a seemingly hopeless situation. But Vajpayee was in touch with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi whose six MPs were crucial. Not only was the DMK willing to vote for the government, it was also ready to participate in it subsequently. Karunanidhi's my-enemy's-enemy approach was also expected to fetch the abstention, if not support, of its Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) ally with three MPs. With the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) tilting towards abstention, the mood in the PMO on April 14 -- the day Jayalalitha pulled out -- was gung-ho.

The optimism was bolstered by feedback from the opposition delegation that met the President. Those present -- Arjun Singh apart -- came away with the impression that K.R. Narayanan was inclined towards letting the Lok Sabha resolve the tangle without guidance. For the government, this meant that the Opposition would first have to come to some arrangement about an alternative before rushing a no-confidence motion. This meant time.

Then, at 9 p.m. came the President's instruction asking the government to seek a confidence vote. A confident Vajpayee scheduled the debate for the next morning. By then, the DMK had confirmed its support and Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal was making headway with Indian National Lok Dal leader Om Prakash Chautala. By the morning of April 16, the second day of the confidence debate, the government camp was exuding overconfidence. Parliamentary affairs minister P.R. Kumaramangalam was shepherding MPs from the North-east to meet Vajpayee while the Home Ministry was ensuring police protection for them through the night. At 1.30 p.m, over a glass of chilled melon juice, Chautala announced his support for Vajpayee "in national interest". The mood in BJP circles was celebratory. "My job now is to ensure an outright majority for the government," Kumaramangalam was heard telling some MPs.

There were two imponderables: the TMC and BSP. Yet, the government had to be composed. The slightest hint of nervousness would have been a signal for the waverers to respond to overtures from the other side. The problem was it overplayed its hand. As mithais were distributed to celebrate Chautala's second coming, those opposition MPs who didn't really want the government to fall were reassured. If the government was "comfortably home", as a PMO official said after Mayawati's 11 p.m. speech, they could afford to vote along party lines. In a game of bluff the government fell a victim of its posturing.

So much so that it didn't prepare Speaker G.M.C. Balayogi for the challenge to Orissa Chief Minister Giridhar Gamang's participation. As the procedural debate raged, few noticed a note being passed by former Speaker P.A. Sangma to Lok Sabha Secretary-General S. Gopalan who, in turn, made some scribbles on it and sent it for typing. It constituted Balayogi's ruling leaving it to Gamang's conscience. With that vote and the BSP's no, Vajpayee was pipped at the post.

Why did Mayawati switch at the last minute?
Why did Sonia claim support of 272 MPs?
Why did Mulayam say no to the Congress?
Why did the Congress veto Jyoti Basu?
Why was Vajpayee not invited again?

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