May 10, 1999

Why did Sonia claim support of 272 MPs?
She was led to believe that the President would merely invite her to be sworn in. Stung by criticism of his confidence-vote decision, Narayanan played by his rules and asked for letters of support. Sonia was unprepared. But her ready reckoner listed 272. She banked on arithmetic and TINA.

Sometimes, television can be so accurate yet misleading. When Sonia emerged from Rashtrapati Bhavan on April 21, she walked purposefully to the assembled media and announced she had the support of 272 MPs for a Congress government with outside support. She would produce the necessary letters of support in another 48 hours. To the world, this was another member of the "dynasty" confidently reasserting her claim to her inheritance. Another Gandhi come of age.

Two days later that myth was shattered. On April 23, Sonia returned to tell the President that she had managed the support of 233 MPs and needed a little more time. Her wish was granted but two days later she admitted defeat. The Congress, she said, was once again willing to revert to its role as the "constructive opposition".

The Rashtrapati Bhavan communique issued after the dissolution of the Lok Sabha is curiously silent on what transpired on April 21 but Congress insiders maintain that Sonia met Narayanan that afternoon in the firm belief that she was going to be invited to head a new government on the strength of her position as the head of the second largest party. That was the interpretation that was proferred to her by her advisers, notably Arjun Singh. As things turned out, it was a complete misreading of the President's mind.

Stung by criticism that he had forced a political crisis by insisting on a confidence vote, the President was also upset by the suggestion that he had one rule for Vajpayee and one for Sonia. The reference was to the insistence on letters of support, a practice Narayanan followed before swearing in Vajpayee last March. Even as Advani and George Fernandes pressed home the demand that any alternative government must first show an assured support of more than 270 MPs, Rashtrapati Bhavan let it be known through a national daily that the 1998 procedure would be followed again. Narayanan was in no mood to allow a repetition of the 13-day Vajpayee farce of 1996.

Sonia didn't discuss numbers with the President that day. They spoke methodology. Returning to 10 Janpath, she found Arjun sitting in her secretary Vincent George's room with half a dozen Congress bigwigs. Ignoring them, she looked at Arjun and said, "You were wrong. He wants the list." Arjun's face fell. He instinctively knew that it was all over.

Sonia didn't. She had all along proceeded on the assumption that once the BJP fell, the "secular" parties would have no option but to support a Congress government. The alternative was a mid-term poll that no one wanted. This was also the understanding given to her by CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet, Sonia's bridge to the Third Front. Four days before the government fell, Surjeet, in fact, put the number of MPs who would support an anti-BJP dispensation at 288. With little experience of the grey areas, Sonia casually took the 270 votes cast against the Vajpayee government, added the names of AIADMK MP S. Muthiah and CPI's Kim Gangte and arrived at the magic figure of 272. It was simple arithmetic plus TINA (There is No Alternative).

Actually, Sonia's political understanding is disproportionately dependant on ready reckoners prepared by her office. In her guide to the arithmetic of the Lok Sabha, the Samajwadi Party was marked with a tick, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and Forward Bloc (FB) had question marks attached to them with a noting "Surjeet". Says CWC member Tariq Anwar: "If the party had dealt directly with these parties, we would have had a clear picture and would not have made the mistake of taking their support for granted." It's a characteristically Congress way of saying that Sonia's homework was flawed and that by making a unilateral declaration of support from 272 MPs she was being both arrogant and adventurist. Once it was apparent that 272 wouldn't materialise, the parallel operation to woo waverers from the BJP coalition also got unstuck. As Arjun conceded later, "The noise and unfavourable climate drove away the migratory birds."

By flaunting the magic number, Sonia was trying to bluff her way to power. It was a desperate gamble in the face of the President's insistence on proof. Of course, she could have approached the problem with greater openness and humility. The end result may have been the same but at least the lack of success would not have pinned on her disdain for the dharma of coalition politics. For a newcomer, the combination of failure and miscalculation is politically lethal.

Why did the BJP-led government lose?
Why did Mayawati switch at the last minute?
Why did Mulayam say no to the Congress?
Why did the Congress veto Jyoti Basu?
Why was Vajpayee not invited again?

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