The Nation: President's rule: War over the Badlands

Confronted with certain defeat in the Rajya Sabha, the government looks for ways to extract maximum political mileage and keep the pressure on Laloo.

It's not often that the BJP has occasion to celebrate these days. Last Tuesday's Holi, however, was different. Having taunted the Opposition for constantly "jumping into an empty well", Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee joined Home Minister L.K. Advani and Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha in literally painting Lutyens' Delhi red with gulal. "It's been three lucky Bs for the BJP," said Advani, "the bus to Lahore, the budget and Bihar."

In a sense, the Bihar victory evoked the greatest satisfaction. What once seemed a question of the Vajpayee Government's very survival was transformed into a resounding motion of confidence once the 29-vote margin of victory was announced by the Lok Sabha Speaker. Thanks to Vajpayee's own spirited initiative, the Government succeeded not only in keeping all its allies by its side but also winning the support of the Bahujan Samaj Party. In getting the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Akali Dal to endorse President's rule in Bihar, the Government even succeeded in winning over those who have never concealed their distaste for Article 356.

WEIGHING THE OPTIONS

ťGo to the Rajya Sabha for ratification. Motion turned down. Rabri Devi government restored in Bihar.

ťAvoid taking ratification to Rajya Sabha. The proclamation lapses on April 12. Rabri's government is restored.

ťRevoke President's rule and restore Rabri's government without risking a Rajya Sabha vote.

ťCite P.B. Sawant's judgement in the Bommai case to dissolve Bihar Assembly after presidential proclamation lapses or is not ratified by the Rajya Sabha. Matter goes to Supreme Court.

Of course, the elation was bound to be short-lived. It is one thing winning a prestige battle in the Lok Sabha. The real hurdle is the Rajya Sabha where the BJP and its allies are in a hopeless minority. If the Upper House votes down the ratification of President's rule, it would automatically lead to the restoration of the state Assembly and, by implication, the Rabri Devi government.

When Parliament reconvened on March 4, Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav managed to successfully disrupt the Lok Sabha, demanding that the Bihar proclamation be introduced immediately in the Rajya Sabha. Anxious to dispel the impression that Sonia Gandhi had somehow miscalculated in taking on the Government on Bihar, the Congress joined the boisterous Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM) chorus. Said Congress spokesman Ajit Jogi: "The Government should give a categorical assurance it will not undermine democratic and constitutional institutions. The resolutions should be brought to the Rajya Sabha." The Congress was anxious to not lose out on this chance to draw blood.

For the Government there are no easy choices. It can chicken out of its hopeless predicament in the Rajya Sabha by unilaterally issuing another proclamation, revoking President's rule. But such a step involves paying a price. When President K. R. Narayanan readily endorsed the second Cabinet decision to dismiss Rabri, he wasn't merely rubber stamping the executive. The President actually stated in writing that his misgivings of September last year had been adequately addressed in both the Cabinet's recommendations and the governor's report. For the Government, this was a moral victory and it makes no sense to resile from this high ground without extracting full political mileage.

True, the TDP and the Akalis are in favour of the Government extricating itself from Bihar at the earliest but then, these parties have no stake in the state. Within the BJP and the Samata Party, the mood is in favour of prolonging President's rule as long as it is legally tenable. But here too, there are tactical differences. One lot, perhaps the majority, prefers a grandstanding approach in the Rajya Sabha with a clear focus on embarrassing the Congress for its alleged indifference to the plight of Dalits. Defence Minister George Fernandes had, after all, done precisely that in the Lok Sabha.

Another section, however, believes that a defeat in the Rajya Sabha shouldn't be treated as the last word on the subject. At the risk of aggravating political confrontation, the Centre is seriously exploring ways of extending President's rule beyond April 12. One proposal centres on the P.B. Sawant-Kuldip Singh judgement in the S.R. Bommai case.

Although the issue of ratification of Article 356 was not central to the Supreme Court's judgement, Sawant and Singh had noted that the restoration of the status quo ante was not inevitable in case Parliament failed to ratify a presidential proclamation. "The inevitable consequence in such a situation is fresh elections and the constitution of a new legislative assembly and the ministry in the state." Since P. Jeevan Reddy had delivered a contrary judgement in the same case, the Government has the option of approaching the Supreme Court to clarify matters and, pending a judgement, stay the revocation of President's rule.

Unfortunately for the Government, this line of thinking is not even favoured by its own legal luminaries. According to them, the Sawant-Singh observations are per incuriam and unlikely to stand up to judicial scrutiny. An adverse judgement by the Supreme Court will not only deflate the Government's claims of moral and political legitimacy, it could confer an element of sanctity to the opposition charge that the BJP-Samata alliance is out to scuttle democracy in Bihar.

"They must come forward and let us know when they plan to take it up in the Rajya Sabha," says Sharad Pawar, leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha. By hinting that this will perhaps not be the case before March 8 -- when Vajpayee makes his reply to the President's address -- the Government is clearly buying time. There is method in the prevarication. By prolonging President's rule till the bitter end, the Government has a clear political agenda:

In a sense, these are fall-back strategies since there is little hope of the Government winning the constitutional battle. The Government ministers grudgingly concede that the charge of Congress perfidy is unsubstantiated. At no stage, they admit, was the Government explicitly assured of Congress' support for the ratification of President's rule. Congress General Secretary Sushil Kumar Shinde, who met Advani with a list of demands -- setting up of a police station, a primary school and rehabilitation of the families of the Jehanabad victims -- apparently told the home minister that Sonia had not made up her mind on the issue. When Advani telephoned Sonia after his meeting with Shinde, he did not broach the subject of Congress support.

Clearly, the Government took a gamble. Now, as it struggles to cling on to Bihar in the face of overwhelming odds, it is trying hard to justify its decision of recommending President's rule. This was clear from the impressive Rs 25,800 crore "Bihar development package" announced by Vajpayee. It is no coincidence that the prime minister was accompanied by Fernandes, Sinha and Railway Minister Nitish Kumar in whose constituencies various projects were sanctioned, including the setting up of an ordnance factory, a railway project and three mega power projects. The Home Ministry too requisitioned an additional 20 companies of para military forces, taking the strength up to 64, even as Bihar BJP leader Sushil Modi demanded the arrest of Laloo, saying he was responsible for "masterminding" the killing of four Ranbir Sena activists on March 2.

In the rapidly escalating war involving the BJP-Samata alliance, the Congress and the RJD, it is imperative for the Government to put a final lid on the question of President's rule. The Government seems to be in a hurry to position itself on a future political battle. But first it must settle the present one. Before the advantage it gained from its victory in the Lok Sabha is nullified in the cross-currents of partisan politics and one-upmanship.