Can JD survive the '98 mandate?

Ever since the electoral reversal in 1991, the JD has been an alliance of three independent regional parties which shared a symbol and a head office in Delhi. The death of Biju Patnaik in Orissa, the departure of Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar and a three-way -- H.D. Deve Gowda, J.H. Patel and Ramakrishna Hegde -- factional split in Karnataka may have brought even that arrangement to an end. Bereft of any assured mass base, the JD faces a challenge to its very existence.

However, the fate of the JD is in no way symptomatic of the rest of the UF. In fact, the Left and various regional parties -- the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh is a case in point -- can even look forward to marginal gains in this election. The point is, can the UF continue to bind together popular regional voices all over the country and remain indispensable to any Central government formation? What will be the politics of the "third force" without even a nominal national party?

Can the next election yield a different verdict?
Can the Congress halt its decline?
Will BJP cross the 20 per cent mark?
Will the turnout fall this time?

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