BY SWAPAN DASGUPTA

Misleading Wisdom

The people know their mind, politicians lag behind.

One of the inexplicable features of the Indian political grapevine is its penchant for misreading the popular mood. Almost every general election since 1971 has been preceded by a wave of predictions gone awry. When Indira Gandhi confronted the Grand Alliance with the slogan of "garibi hatao", there was virtual unanimity among the pundits that the outcome would be a hung fifth Lok Sabha. In 1977, the buzz was that the electorate would return a "chastened" empress. In 1980, not even the wildest optimists anticipated Mrs Gandhi's spectacular comeback, and in 1984, the chatterati failed to gauge the extent of the ordinary voter's fear of India breaking up. Likewise, in 1991, the chroniclers of caste and sub-caste minutiae were made redundant by the decimation of the Mandalite forces, and in 1996, no one expected the Congress to slump to second position.

If the early signals emanating from Lutyens' Delhi are any indication, the general election of 1998 presents another opportunity for the contrarian. The despondent faces in the Central Hall of Parliament, the outrage of the backbenchers against their party leadership and the flurry of last-minute, face-saving formulae to avert dissolution conveyed one message: that fresh elections are an exercise in futility because the composition of the 12th Lok Sabha will be no different from the 11th. In other words, the political class believes that money and energy will be needlessly expended in a journey that ends in no movement.

The problem with this outburst of cynicism is that it is based on the self-serving fallacies of those who know no life beyond politics. True, there is widespread disgust among the people at the politicians having made a complete mess of governance. But this exasperation is tinged with an important realisation -- that India deserves better, that it deserves a coherent government. This, in particular, is the realisation that is creeping through the haze of murky confusion that marked the final four weeks of the I.K. Gujral government. It is not necessarily an indictment of coalition government or some kind of re-endorsement of the centralising features of the Nehru-Gandhi era. With nothing spectacular dividing the Congress, the United Front (UF) and the bjp in terms of policy (except by way of emphasis), what Indians are looking for after the 18-month UF experiment is purposeful leadership and internal consistency. Today, the role of the government is far smaller than it was six years ago and if the economic reforms are carried to their logical conclusion, the government will matter even less. Wielding the levers of power at the Centre no longer means disbursing patronage at the taxpayers' expense. It involves ensuring an environment and pursuing policies conducive to people just getting on with their lives.

The next few weeks will witness frenzied activity centred on intricate caste calculations and other pre-election games. Those have a role in shaping electoral outcomes. But a national election, uncluttered by local and parochial considerations, is not settled on the basis of mere alignments. Success comes to that party or combination that can blend the face of a leader with the broadest pan-Indian appeal. This is what determined the outcome in 1971, 1980 and 1984 and what should tilt the scales in 1998. If India follows its instincts, we should be bidding farewell to unstable coalitions for at least five years. It is one of those times when, to use Leninist imagery, the people are way ahead of the vanguard in understanding self-interest.

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