Will the turnout fall this time? Which party will gain if it does?

If one goes by the earlier record of mid-term elections, it is likely that the turnout in 1998 will drop by anything between four and six percentage points over the already low polling of 58 per cent in 1996. But the last decade has witnessed greater voting and political participation by various underprivileged sections. If this trend offsets the mid-term poll fatigue, the fall may not be so steep.

Notwithstanding a good deal of speculation on this issue, it is still not clear as to who benefits from a lower turnout. Conventional wisdom would suggest that cadre-based parties like the BJP and the CPI(M) stand to gain from it as their supporters are committed to coming to the booth while others may decide to stay away. But that is only one part of the answer.

Beyond a point, it is not enough to look merely at the total figures of percentage turnout. The real question is, who turns out and who does not. If electoral fatigue affects underprivileged sections, it may damage the prospects of the UF and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). If the apathy is more pronounced in the urban "middle class", the BJP has reasons to worry.

Can the next election yield a different verdict?
Can the Congress halt its decline?
Will BJP cross the 20 per cent mark?
Can JD survive the '98 mandate?

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