Can the next election yield a
different verdict?

It can. Not because it is bound to yield a clear majority for any one formation. But because it can change the present coalition equation and break the legislative deadlock. There are two interesting possibilities in this election:

• The strength of the alliances can change substantially.
• The strength of parties within the alliances can change significantly.

In 1991 and 1996, the overwhelming majority in the Lok Sabha belonged to the centre-left of the political spectrum. The making and unmaking of governments were their privilege. The question this time is: will the Congress and the United Front (UF) put together continue to control a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha? If they don't, it is a wide open game.

The game will open even further if the legislative strength of national parties such as the Congress and the Janata Dal (JD) changes substantially. A decline will affect their bargaining power in any non-BJP coalition they may enter into.

Can the Congress halt its decline?
Will the BJP cross the 20 per cent mark?
Can JD survive the '98 mandate?
Will the turnout fall this time?

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