February 16, 1998

Will we end up voting for another election?

By Swapan Dasgupta

The Election Commission (EC) has not made India entirely safe for democracy by outlawing opinion polls after February 14, but it has certainly left the field wide open for speculators. Sonia Gandhi's elocutionary forays and Priyanka Vadra's frenzied gesticulations may or may not translate into a decisive pro-Congress wave, but they have certainly electrified the Star News-watching classes. Those who until a month ago were discovering their undetected family connections with the erstwhile Hindu Mahasabha are now shrugging their shoulders. If the people want her, goes the chatter, who are we to say otherwise? The lady's campaign has become a talking point, and one of the conventional wisdoms doing the rounds is that there will be another hung Parliament followed by a Sonia-friendly government.

Thanks to the EC's misplaced sense of fairness, we will not have a real opportunity to test this hypothesis before the counting. However, assuming that the BJP's Sonia-phobia is not unwarranted and we are witnessing a spectacular Congress revival, what are the consequences?

First, not even the most slavish Gandhi family devotee believes that the Sonia wave is of such magnitude as to propel the Congress beyond the 270-seat mark. Going by published opinion polls, the Congress is still hovering around the 150 to 170 mark. Secondly, it would seem that the prime casualty of the Sonia surge is the United Front (UF), notably the Janata Dal and the Telugu Desam (TDP). Finally, while Sonia cannot ensure an outright Congress victory, she can prevent Atal Bihari Vajpayee from walking off with the prize. Sonia has the ability to put the cat among the pigeons.

Then what? By the time the results are out, the UF for all practical purposes will become the Left Front. The CPI(M) looks set to emerge as the largest constituent of the 13-party formation. In its bid to correct its 1996 "historic blunder", will Jyoti Basu end his career as 10 Janpath's nominee on Race Course road? Alternatively, will we see Harkishen Singh Surjeet as the Rasputin of a Sonia-approved Congress government? The possibilities are interesting. On record, the CPI(M) has said it will be in opposition if the UF fails to make the grade. Is this the last word on the subject? The voters have a right to know.

If the Left's position is non-negotiable, a post-Sonia wave Parliament will be left with three alternatives. Vajpayee may end up as prime minister, but at the head of an amorphous and unruly post-poll coalition. The tail will wag the dog, and it will be another disastrous coalition that could even pave the way for a Vadra government the next time. Alternatively, the Congress will discover another Shankersinh Vaghela within the BJP and the saffron alliance will disintegrate. Fair-weather friends will detect a RSS conspiracy and find greener pastures. The final possibility is the Loktantrik Congress reproducing itself at the national level. Will a fractured verdict institutionalise the historic compromise between the two nationalist streams?

The truth is we don't know. At a time when tactical voting is imperative, the EC has denied the voters an informed choice. A well-intentioned decision could be a reason why India may end up voting for another election. Unless, of course, the Sonia wave belongs entirely in the realms of the imagination.

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