India 2047

Standing on the crossroads of a millennial opportunity, will India be able to make a leap -- let alone a great leap -- into the next century? Here is the big picture.

I N T E R N A L || S E C U R I T Y
Truce and Tension

• Communal and caste violence will disappear altogether; this route to political power would have outlived its utility in a modernising society.
• Crime, including white-collar crime, will increase in number and gravity.
• Narcotics trafficking will remain a prime currency of the underworld.

The challenges to unity will be less threatening over the next 50 years. India's identity was historically based on civilisations, not politics. It is now based on both. And as the country grows economically stronger, with a large middle-class and increased mobility, the Indian identity will gain greater strength.

Yet, the inability to meet rising expectations against the background of deregulation, globalisation and consumerism could tempt many to circumvent the law. The rise of syndicates, speculators and mafia gangs, coupled with any continuing disrepair of the criminal justice system could, in the short run, make India a more violent place.

However, communal and caste violence will disappear altogether in the long run, not because of the spread of secularism and non-violence, but because it will no longer be profitable to exploit communal and caste divides. This route to political power will have outlived its utility. Religion and caste will no longer offer a viable political or ideological base in a modernising society.

The phenomenal increase in population and urbanisation, coupled with widening disparities and pools of real deprivation, are going to create serious problems. Crime, including white-collar crime, could increase in number and gravity, luring unemployed youth who find that jobs may not be easy to secure. Crime will become more organised and sophisticated, with mobile gangs and international networks making full use of new technology.

The whole philosophy and structure of policing and intelligence will need to undergo a change.

Democratic institutions will come under increasing pressure. Insecurity and frustration with ineffective government could make authoritarianism and fascist formations more respectable unless strong measures are taken to ensure the rule of law. Effective power will probably move from the Union government to the states. Even if they nominally survive, all-India services like the ias and ips will, for all practical purposes, become state services. India will be more truly federal but will not balkanise because of economic compulsions, despite a possible resurgence of sub-nationalism, or strong regional pulls.

Insurgency is likely to recede as political answers are found to current discontents such as in jammu and Kashmir. But terrorism will continue to pose a threat. The North-east could remain turbulent for geopolitical and strategic reasons as neighbouring countries might try and foment trouble in order to pressure India on matters affecting their national concerns. Regional cooperation could, however, have a contrary effect on account of a mutual, interlocking cross-border interest in peace and stability that promises shared prosperity.

Narcotics trafficking will remain a prime currency of the underworld while the proliferation of ever more sophisticated small arms will keep alive the pursuit of politics and economic aggrandisement by other means. Notions of national security and its management will undergo change and the paramilitary forces will need considerable recasting to fulfil a new role that is not dangerously dependent, as at present, on military aid to civil power.

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