Third front is a distant third

An alliance between Lakshmi Parvati's TDP(NTR) and the BJP by itself is unlikely to make a difference to the electoral fortunes of either party. Unless there is a big swing in favour of the alliance, the battle will be fought once again between N. Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and its allies and the Congress.

Gains for BJP-BJD at JD's cost

It all depends on how many of the JD votes are captured by the newly formed Biju Janata Dal (BJD). If the popular votes are evenly shared by the two factions, the Congress may gain a seat in spite of the BJP-BJD alliance. But if the BJD manages to win at least 70 per cent of the JD votes, the BJP-BJD combine could pick up five seats. In both the cases, the official JD is likely to fail to open its account. 

Akali-BJP alliance comfortably placed

Ever since their return to electoral politics, the Akalis have dominated the state, first in alliance with the BSP in 1996 and then with the BJP during the assembly elections in 1997. If the party retains its popularity, the Akali-BJP alliance can win virtually every seat. The Congress-BSP alliance can cost them only one seat.

Anti saffron pact can turn the tables

An effective alliance of all the currently demoralised anti-BJP formations looks like the only way to stall a further saffron surge. Even a partial unity of the Congress with the SP and the Republican Party of India can make a difference in as many as nine seats. A full Congress-Progressive Democratic Front alliance can put the BJP-Shiv Sena combine on the defensive.

Chautala-Kanshi pose threat to Bansi Lal

Few analysts have noted the import of the Haryana Lok Dal-BSP alliance, a textbook illustration of alliance arithmetic. If one goes by the assembly election results of 1996 to estimate the support base of the parties, the newly formed alliance can pick up half the seats in the state at the expense of the Congress and the ruling Haryana Vikas Party-BJP combine.

INDIA VOTES

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