April 19, 1999

There are no winners in this round of political uncertainty. If Vajpayee goes, the new lot will be equally unstable.

By Sumit Mitra, Saba Naqvi Bhaumik and Javed M Ansari

The Compromise If Vajpayee settles with Jaya, he will save his Government but will become a figure of ridicule. The Respite If BJP survives, it will be a minority government exposed to unreasonable pressures from new backers. The End Losing power will be blamed on failure to manage a coalition. BJP will suffer in a general election.

If the dance of peacocks and the croaking of frogs herald the rains, there is a certain drill associated with political uncertainty in Lutyens' Delhi. Huddled busybodies around the gracious bungalows, lines of white Ambassador cars, the incessant totting up of numbers in dinners and conclaves, overworked cell phones and wild rumours of comings and goings -- these are the sights and sounds of India in a coalition. Plus the usual quota of intriguing template statements like "the Government will last its full term" and the vacuous punditry that "the next 24 hours will be crucial".

It's been different this time. AIADMK General Secretary J. Jayalalitha's tea-party "earthquake" may have sent the political class reeling in fright and anticipating a sixth prime minister in three years, but it is an uncanny stiff upper lip that is on view. Defence Minister George Fernandes is busy fighting his battle with sacked chief of naval staff Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat; Principal Secretary Brajesh Mishra is preoccupied with Kosovo; and Home Minister L.K. Advani is still reading Richard Carlson's Don't Sweat The Small Stuff with evocative chapter headings like "Let Others Have the Glory" and "Choose Your Battles Wisely". "It's business as usual," says Steel and Mines Minister Naveen Patnaik, unconcerned with speculation that BJD MPs will switch sides.

It's a little more hectic on the other side but only nominally so. Gadfly Janata Party President Subramanian Swamy is notching up more air miles these days to enhance his reputation as a one-man demolition squad and Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Arjun Singh's Canning Lane residence gives the appearance of being the nerve centre of Operation Topple but their hyperactivity is only shared by CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet. There are no busloads of arguments outside 10 Janpath to urge Sonia Gandhi to take up the cudgels of dynastic democracy. Even the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM) stalwarts, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav, have floated back to their states. "It would seriously compromise our image," says Congress spokesman Ajit Jogi, "if we are seen to be actively engaged in toppling the Government." If the political uncertainty at the Centre wasn't so real, it would almost seem like a phoney war.

The Failure If Sonia doesn't dislodge Vajpayee, she will cut a sorry figure. The Price An alternative rag-tag arrangement will undermine Sonia's long-haul strategy to rebuild the Congress. The Risk A Sonia government will be as vulnerable to conflicting demands from its allies as the Vajpayee Government.

The analogy isn't contrived. Delhi resembles a battlefield awaiting action because the first shots have to be fired by the Amma of all crises when she returns to the capital from Chennai. Having declared war by withdrawing her two ministers from the Vajpayee Government and opting out of the Coordination Committee, the onus is on Jayalalitha to go the whole hog. She could, of course, be very predictable, formally withdraw support of her 18 MPs and prompt President K.R. Narayanan to ask Vajpayee to prove his majority in the Lok Sabha. In which case the numbers game, the horse trading, the futures trading -- in short, the real fun and games -- begin.

After Parliamentary Affairs Minister P.R. Kumaramangalam's assertion that Jayalalitha "lacks credibility" and BJP Vice-President K.L. Sharma's description of her demands as "absurd", this seems the most likely scenario. Last month, after attending a Coordination Committee meeting and fulminating over the Bhagwat issue, she handed Vajpayee an unsigned charter of demands. Apart from more cabinet berths, more portfolios and the inclusion of Swamy in the Government -- eight months ago she had pressed his case for appointment as finance minister -- she demanded nominees of her choice in as many as 25 bureaucratic posts. Curiously, she never said a word about Bhagwat and Fernandes. For an otherwise accommodating Vajpayee this was against the "dharma of coalition government". For the allies, it was preposterous. Says Samata Party General Secretary Jaya Jaitley: "She must be looking into the mirror and thinking she has an audience. She has a psychological kink about showing she's the most powerful person."

Perverse pride apart, Jayalalitha's desire to extricate herself from the BJP alliance has a definite political dimension. She knows that the only way to wriggle out of the corruption cases slapped against her by the DMK Government in Tamil Nadu is to reclaim the chief ministership. The state assembly election is due in 2001 but the AIADMK chief has to prepare for it well in advance. Having unilaterally terminated her local alliance with Vaiko's MDMK, S. Ramdoss' PMK and Vazhapadi Ramamurthy's TRC, Jayalalitha needs the Congress for that crucial incremental vote. Says a BJP MP from Tamil Nadu: "Jaya would need the vote share of the Congress which would no longer go to the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) which has exhausted its potential after Sonia's entry." This means reviving the old Indira Gandhi-MGR seat-sharing formula. However, in the interim period she needs an obliging Centre to protect her from M. Karunanidhi's determined bid to secure her conviction and subsequent disqualification from the electoral arena.

The Gamble If BJP survives with DMK help, she will be friendless in Chennai and Delhi. The Tussle Third Front doesn't want AIADMK in a new Government. The Outcast Jaya risks becoming the new pariah.

That being so, why did Jayalalitha go out of her way to provoke a confrontation with the Vajpayee Government at this point? In view of the Congress hesitation in openly identifying with her, there are no clear answers. There are suggestions that she will not be averse to an early Lok Sabha election where the advantage would lie with the Congress and, by association, her. Consequently, she wouldn't really mind the Vajpayee Government collapsing, the others failing to provide an alternative and fresh elections by November. But what if Vajpayee cobbles together a wafer-thin majority and lives to fight another day? More ominously, what if the victory is effected through an arrangement with the DMK's six MPs? Alternatively, what if the Congress shies away from pulling the trigger at this juncture? These are imponderables that could leave Jayalalitha high and dry. Perhaps even have her crawling back after some face-saving formula.

That would be a colossal anti-climax, inevitably inviting charges of another rollback. No wonder Sonia is being so circumspect. "We are not going to jump to anything. We are watching the situation and will act when necessary," she said. Even while wishing the demise of the Vajpayee Government, the Congress is wary of casting the first stone. Congress MP Kamal Nath, who shot off his mouth on television and said his party would move a no-confidence motion, was immediately called to order by a high command that doesn't want to convey the impression of indecent haste. Some over-imaginative partymen are also putting out the suggestion that Jayalalitha's fallout is a devious Advani ploy to simultaneously get rid of Vajpayee and force the BJP into combat mode.

The call for caution is warranted. Associating with Jayalalitha is just one fear. Much more pressing is the uncertainty over a future dispensation in case Vajpayee falls. Ideally, the Congress would have preferred waiting until the outcome of the November elections in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh to dethrone the BJP and then engineering a general election in March, along with the state elections in Orissa and Maharashtra. By jumping the gun, the AIADMK has upset Congress calculations. No wonder Swamy spent time impressing West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu to persuade Sonia to take the plunge. With the BJP preying on fears that the alternative to Vajpayee is another election that the average MP is loath to encounter, Sonia has been forced to confront the issue of an alternative government within the constraints of the present Lok Sabha. For the record, both the Congress, the Left and the RLM have indicated that it has to be a step-by-step approach. "The question of government formation will unnecessarily bog us down," says Surjeet. "First, let's ensure their defeat."

BJP' OPTIONS Jaya Retreat: The AIADMK makes up with Vajpayee, abandons demands for Fernandes' resignation and JPC probe and waits for another day. Bull's Eye: Support from Karunanidhi, Chautala and Kanshi Ram helps Vajpayee win a trust vote. BJP pays a price for BSP support in UP. Minority Raj: Strategic abstentions help Vajpayee tide over crisis. Minority government hangs by a slender thread. Losers' Gambit: Vajpayee loses confidence vote after a thundering speech in Lok Sabha. BJP sits back, allows formation of an alternative government and raises the spectre of Rome Raj.

The most appealing prospect for the two communist parties -- although some of the smaller allies have problems -- is for the Congress to form a government with outside support of the others. This has two advantages. First, it will negate the possibility of the Congress bringing down the government, as happened with Charan Singh, Chandra Shekhar, H.D. Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral. Secondly, it will obviate the need for others having to transfer local rivalries to Delhi. For example, an AIADMK presence will make it very difficult for the Left, DMK and TMC to support an alternative government. Says TMC leader and former finance minister P. Chidambaram: "One can only dine with the devil with a long spoon. But there is no spoon long enough to dine with Jayalalitha." In a remarkable turn of events, the Congress has become the least unacceptable choice for leading a non-BJP government.

However, on this count too there are problems. The most fierce resistance has come from Mulayam's Samajwadi Party (SP) which is engaged in a bitter turf war with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh. The battle is really over the Muslim vote that Mulayam has hogged since 1993. If the Congress emerges as the main anti-BJP force, so the argument goes, why should the Muslims have any need for the SP? It is this argument that UPCC President Salman Khurshid has been driving home with vigour. It's a thought that has also unnerved Mulayam. To ally with the Congress at the Centre, he wants reciprocity in Uttar Pradesh. His party thinks that if the Congress wants an arrangement with the SP in Delhi, it must recognise Mulayam as the main secular force in Uttar Pradesh. In view of the Congress basing its rejuvenation strategy on a comeback in the state, that is easier said than done. To accommodate Mulayam, Sonia will have to reassess her entire long-haul approach, not to mention the Pachmarhi declaration.

No wonder there are Congress leaders like Sharad Pawar and Madhav Rao Scindia who believe that the party shouldn't compromise on fundamentals. If the Vajpayee Government falls, they advocate the Congress staking a claim on the basis of its own manifesto. If the supporting parties agree, well and good. If not, the Congress shouldn't shy away from elections at the earliest -- a threat that may deter Laloo, Mulayam and Surjeet, though not Jayalalitha from making impossible demands. Says CWC member Rajesh Pilot: "If Vajpayee now goes, there must be general elections this year." It sounds appealing but goes against the impulse of the entire political class. A chemistry that could ultimately benefit Vajpayee.

CONGRESS OPTIONS Kill BJP: This is the Congress' foremost priority. The party is divided over when and what next. In Command: Once Vajpayee falls, Sonia can set the agenda. It will be either a Congress government supported from outside or elections. Repeat Performance: Yet another short-lived arrangement from now till the November assembly elections after which the Congress wants general elections. Caretaker Atal: The BJP Government falls, Sonia says no alternative is possible, Vajpayee remains caretaker prime minister and general elections are held in November.

In the perilous numbers game that leaves the option of a Congress-supported Third Front government headed by either Mulayam or Deve Gowda, both of whom are keen on the job. Since the CPI(M) has barred itself from joining a government where it is not a dominant partner, such a coalition will have a nucleus of not more than 60 MPs. It can, at best, be a comic passing show.

It is the complication of forging an alternative that has emboldened Vajpayee to make forays into the camp of waverers, particularly those who are guided by anti-Congressism. The DMK heads the list of possible new allies and the initial response from Chennai has been encouraging. Less certain is the conduct of Chautala's four MPs, now being courted by a rehabilitated Madan Lal Khurana, though here too anti-Congressism is a factor. As for the five BSP MPs, Kanshi Ram may demand too steep a price for either support or abstention. Which means if Vajpayee survives, it will be courtesy strategic abstentions. He will head a weak minority government.

In public, both the Congress and the BJP have projected the crisis as a win-win situation. For Congress partisans, it's either the demise of the BJP or a crippled Vajpayee Government on its last legs. For the BJP, it's either a Vajpayee martyred by a "power-hungry Italian in cahoots with a psycopath and international tout" or victory in the face of incredible odds.

The reality is more dismal. Having destabilised the Centre for an entire year, Jayalalitha has ensured another bout of uncertainty and missed opportunities. She may have won a dubious world statesman award and a place in history but has ensured India enters the new millennium a clear loser. We deserved better.

--with L R Jagadheesan and Harinder Baweja

National Politics: Feminine Machismo

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