August 2, 1999

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A ready reckoner of who is teaming up with the BJP, why and for what.

NEW RELIABLE
M. KARUNANIDHI, DMK
The DMK wasted absolutely no time after Jayalalitha withdrew support to the Vajpayee government last April to enter into a formal alliance with the BJP. It swallowed its Dravidian nationalism in allying with the Hindu nationalists. It was Vajpayee's personal rapport with Karunanidhi and Murasoli Maran that did the trick. If the NDA succeeds in the elections, the DMK will be an active participant in the government, just as it was in the National Front and United Front administrations. The seat-sharing details haven't been finalised but it is expected that the DMK will contest those seats left to the AIADMK in the previous alliance. If the Tamil Maanila Congress of G.K. Moopanar stays out of the Congress-AIADMK-Left alliance, the NDA will start with an advantage. The BJP is not strong in Tamil Nadu but Vajpayee's presence could influence the mood in a national election. 

NEW UNRELIABLE
NITISH KUMAR AND GEORGE FERNANDES, SAMATA PARTY
As convener of the NDA, Fernandes enjoys a position next only to Vajpayee and Advani. Despite the controversy over his performance as defence minister, he managed to use his clout to successfully press ahead in his mission to reunite the old Janata Parivar minus Laloo and Mulayam. With Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan walking into its parlour, the Samata-BJP alliance in Bihar can realistically hope to turn the tables on Laloo. The mood is definitely upbeat. The only problem is that the growth of the Samata may affect its delicate seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP. The Samata has already demanded seats from the BJP in south Bihar in the hope that this will compel the BJP to yield ground in north and central Bihar. Always an excitable lot in the best tradition of Lohia, the Samata Party's conduct in the dissolved Lok Sabha was exemplary with even Fernandes exercising uncharacteristic restraint. However, with the mantle of the old Janata Dal falling on his shoulders, Fernandes is certain to press home his newly acquired clout. If the NDA manages only a wafer-thin majority, the Samata Party could become a particularly troublesome part of the alliance. On two occasions in the previous Lok Sabha, a ministerial expansion was delayed because there were too many Samata claimants.

HOME GROWN
BAL THACKERAY, SHIV SENA
Despite being the senior partner in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena is on the defensive because it knows that its only hope lies in the Vajpayee card working both in the Assembly and the Lok Sabha. The NDA hopes to benefit from Pawar's split but only if the anti-incumbency move dissipates.
P.S. BADAL, AKALI DAL
After G.S. Tohra split, Badal will have to struggle to maintain his 1998 tally. The Congress is bouyant in Punjab and it is the Vajpayee and Kargil factors that could come to the rescue of the NDA. The Akali-BJP combine swept the polls in 1998. This time it may not do so well.
O.P. CHAUTALA, LOK DAL
Having succeeded in his bid to remove the Bansi Lal government, Chautala's focus will be on the Assembly. He will inevitably demand a heavy price from the BJP and the party will be very hard put to oblige. There are troubles ahead.

STORMY PETRELS
VAIKO, MDMK
The hardest of the hard Dravidian nationalists has emerged as a key Vajpayee loyalist. He even swallowed his pride to rub shoulders with the DMK in the NDA.
MAMATA BANERJEE, TRINAMOOL
Having got over her initial wariness of the BJP, Mamata has announced she will join a future Vajpayee government. The problem is that she hasn't formally joined the NDA.

MINOR HICCUPS
R.K. HEGDE, LOK SHAKTI
With J.H. Patel joining his fold, Hegde believes he is now the senior partner in Karnataka. The local BJP won't be happy to oblige.
NAVEEN PATNAIK, BJD
Beset with internal party problems, Patnaik looks to the BJP to keep his own house in order. Is too decent to rock any boat.
GEGONG APANG, AC
Having lost his government in Arunachal Pradesh, he will be looking to the Lok Sabha election to stage a comeback.

SYMBOLIC
FAROOQ ABDULLAH, NC
Will not formally join the NDA but will support any government at the Centre. He needs to show he is the post-Kargil boss in the Kashmir Valley.
S. RAMDOSS, PMK
A Jayalalitha ally who stayed with Vajpayee, he is uneasy with the DMK. He will play ball as long as clout in the Centre can be used in Tamil Nadu.

EXPEDIENCY
N. CHANDRABABU NAIDU, TDP
The last thing Naidu wanted was simultaneous polls at the Centre and in Andhra Pradesh. Now that is a reality, he is likely to team up formally with the BJP which polled 18 per cent of the votes in the state in 1998. Without the BJP, Naidu stands to lose power in the state. He too will bank on Vajpayee's charisma to persuade voters into giving him another high-tech chance.

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