August 9, 1999

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With Vajpayee as its trump card, the BJP hopes to reap the dividends of moving from the fringe to the mainstream of politics.

By Swapan Dasgupta

There was a time, not all that long ago, when political life began with the Congress and ended with the Congress. "One-party dominance" was perceived as the pillar of democracy, the guarantor of liberalism and the agency of modernisation. The Congress, wrote political scientist Rajni Kothari in 1970, "was like Hindu society in miniature, accommodative and agglomerative, given less to specificity and differentiation and more to consensus and catholicism. The Congress was a grand coalition ... representing the Indian nation in most of its essentials."

It would hardly be unfair to the millions of Indians who stamp dutifully election after election on the hand symbol to suggest that today's Congress bears tangential similarity to the organisation described by Kothari. The Congress still commands an all-India following. Both in 1996 and 1998 it polled more votes than the BJP which emerged the largest single party. In ideological terms, it remains non-doctrinaire and pragmatic. More than any other party, it is instinctively at ease managing power. Yet, today's Congress is not the Congress of yore. Dynasty is not the aberration. From Mahatma Gandhi to Rajiv Gandhi, the Congress has relied on the leader for both inspiration and direction. The dynastic principle that Indira Gandhi formalised meant that the leader identification process was short-circuited. The Congress became an inheritance. This proved an anathema to many, beginning from the Syndicate in 1969 to Sharad Pawar earlier this year. But dynastic democracy has its devotees and their faith isn't based on mindless sycophancy alone. The Nehru-Gandhi name is a pre-sold, national brand and they accept it as easily as the BJP accepts the RSS. Dynasty wasn't a deterrent to the party winning elections, nor has it been the reason for its many defeats. Sonia didn't click in the 1998 general election but she wasn't the obstacle to the Congress sweep in the three Assembly elections last November.

Where the Congress has faltered is in the inability of the leadership to retain the grand coalition. In the early '70s, it failed to absorb the intermediate castes who were the beneficiaries of the Green Revolution. Subsequently, Rajiv was caught unawares by the Hindu consolidation around the BJP during the Ayodhya movement. P.V. Narasimha Rao's seeming complicity in the Babri Masjid demolition cost the party Muslim support in the Hindi belt and Kanshi Ram added to his woes by stealing the Dalit vote in Uttar Pradesh. Over the years, social groups have walked out of the Congress and the party has done precious little to regain their loyalty.

There was an ideological dimension to the shrinkage too. Till 1984, the Congress epitomised mainstream Indian nationalism. Now, nationalism itself has been redefined with the centre of gravity shifting sharply to the right. Traditional Congress symbols have been refashioned in such a way that the Congress is conveying an impression of being a party of dissent rather than the authoritative voice of the establishment. In striking a discordant note on Kargil, Sonia has taken a dual gamble. She knows her Italian origin will also be a subtext of the campaign.

That there are many hurdles before the Congress is undeniable. It could have checked its electoral slippage in two possible ways. By either going for a long-haul strategy of recovery as suggested in the Pachmarhi declaration or by entering into strategic coalitions. Unable to adjust to the loss of its pre-eminent status and unwilling to lose out on the disgust with fractious coalitions, it has fallen between two stools. It is amenable to local alliances but can't countenance power sharing. It's a schizoid approach. Sonia wants to recreate the Congress coalition but on her terms.

Whether she succeeds or falters will depend as much on her appeal as the party's message. In September-October, India will witness a presidential election where two leaders will be more important than their parties. It will be a bitter, vicious campaign. In questioning Vajpayee on Kargil, Sonia will try to pit the charisma of the Gandhi family against the euphoria of victory. If she succeeds, the Congress will be back in business as the natural party of governance. If she is worsted, it will be back to the long-haul strategy for Sonia's Congress.

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