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REGIONAL CHIEFTAINS The Spoilers Cutting into an essentially two-horse race, marginal parties prepare to play kingmakers yet again. Another hung Parliament and they will call the shots with their clutch of MPs. By Swapan Dasgupta
India is a country replete with paradoxes. Nearly every opinion poll provides a clear pointer to the electorate's yearning for political stability. Nearly every election campaign results in the main contenders promising a stable government. Every political crisis throws up a demand for a constitutional amendment to ensure the Lok Sabha runs its full five-year term. And yet, every general election from 1989 has thrown up a fractured verdict. Out of the 12 Lok Sabhas elected since Independence, only six have run their full course. In most evolved democracies, there is a government and there is an opposition. In contemporary India, there is a fractured government and an equally fractured opposition. On every side of the divide there are parties and individuals waiting to play the spoiler.
The arithmetic tells the story. In 1977, the combined tally of the first and second parties accounted for 82 per cent of the Lok Sabha; in 1980 it was 72 per cent and in 1984, 80 per cent. These were years the electorate returned conclusive verdicts. Since then, electoral politics witnessed two developments: the demise of one-party dominance and the evolution of what has come to be known as the Third Front. In 1989, the first two parties shrank to 62 per cent of the Lok Sabha, rose marginally to 65 per cent in 1991 and touched all-time lows of 55 per cent in 1996 and 59 per cent in 1998. In the 11th Lok Sabha, elected in 1996, the situation took a comic turn with the three largest parties staying out of the government. And in the just-dissolved Lok Sabha, the AIADMK with 18 MPs held the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government to ransom for 13 months and facilitated its fall by one vote. With 20 MPs, Mulayam Singh Yadav successfully prevented the formation of an alternative government. Far from evoking popular disgust, the experiences of 1996 and 1998 have led some of the marginal players to believe that they can play kingmaker with just a handful of MPs. Kanshi Ram of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has made instability his avowed mantra. He believes the interests of the "Bahujan Samaj" can be best served in a hung Parliament. Likewise, even if he is no radical, Sharad Pawar believes his political future lies in amassing a "critical mass" in what he hopes will be yet another fractured Lok Sabha. His priority is not upfront pre-poll alliances but a post-election realignment centred on the fear of another general election. At one time, these alignments were based on expedient ideological platforms -- like anti-Congressism, socialism, anti-communalism and social justice. Today, even the fig leaf of programmatic unity has been abandoned. The BSP can just as easily align with the BJP as with the Congress. As India enters its third general election in three years, the outward appearance is that of a two-horse race -- the Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance versus the Sonia-led Congress combine. Don't be beguiled, waiting in the wings and sharpening their knives are the spoilers. Another hung Parliament and they will have their pound of flesh. SHARAD PAWAR
In 1979 after the Janata government fell, leader of the opposition Y.B. Chavan tested President N. Sanjiva Reddy's patience by repeatedly asking for more time to form an alternative government. When he returned a third time with the request, the President exploded: "If I'd asked your protege Sharad Pawar, he would have not only been sworn in but the government would have been functioning by now." Pawar's formidable reputation stemmed from his success in toppling Vasantdada Patil, managing a motley group of nine parties and becoming, at 38, the youngest chief minister of Maharashtra. To Pawar, politics is the art of the possible: power comes from taking chances. Ever since H.D. Deve Gowda was thrust into the top job in 1996, Pawar has been calculating the odds. Familiar with the Progressive Democratic Front (PDF) he forged in 1978, he believes it's PDF time again. The 1999 mandate, according to him, will be fractured. Which means anyone who achieves a critical mass can call the shots. "It's still early but I believe we should win 50 to 60 seats." So who will Pawar support? "Not the BJP." Would a non-Sonia Congress candidate be acceptable? "One cannot speak in isolation. We have to study the ground realities." And then in a sudden flourish, he adds: "Why are you ruling out the Third Front? I believe the Deve Gowda formula is still alive." Pawar believes he can produce the critical mass -- even if through a post-poll fission -- that will engineer the fusion. Despite the absence of a known symbol, Pawar hopes to win between 18 and 22 seats in Maharashtra. If the NCP and allies touch the 50 mark and no one gets a clear majority, Pawar could be in business. -V. Shankar Aiyar MULAYAM SINGH YADAV
For a man who entered politics via the mud pits of the akhara, Mulayam Singh Yadav loves a fight. In his three-decade career he has taken on almost everybody: Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, V.P. Singh, Kanshi Ram, the BJP and now, Sonia Gandhi. To this loyal soldier of Lohia what matters isn't the outcome of the fight but the fight itself. Foolhardy or not, this combativeness has paid dividends. He has built up a formidable base in Uttar Pradesh. Nationally, the Samajwadi Party polled over 20 per cent votes in 75 constituencies in 1998. This makes him both a kingmaker and a spoiler. This year, he begins the campaign without the assurance of solid Muslim support -- a casualty of his refusal to back a Sonia-led government last April -- but still has enough clout to influence the ultimate outcome. He has teamed up with Sharad Pawar nationally but the loss of Left patronage could prove damaging in the long run. He hopes to retain his 20 MPs and bargain in a hung Parliament. Adversity isn't going to prevent him from mounting a scorched earth anti-Congress campaign. For him, the BJP is a known enemy but a resurgent Congress threatens his very survival. -Farzand Ahmed KANSHI RAM, MAYAWATI Kanshi Ram brazenly pursues political instability. A hung Parliament gives the 65-year-old commander of the BSP and his lieutenant Mayawati the greatest scope to practise their brinkmanship games. Backed by a loyal and eminently transferable vote bank, Kanshi Ram gambles for the highest spoil stakes. His last-minute shift sealed the fate of Vajpayee's government and now his choice of allies in Uttar Pradesh could make or break either the BJP or the Congress. For him, numbers don't matter. What is important is how they can be put to use to expose the charade of "Manuwadi" parties. NUMEROLOGY -Saba Naqvi Bhaumik H.D. DEVE GOWDA -Javed M. Ansari and Stephen David G.K. MOOPANAR -K.M. Thomas |
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