In September last year we predicted that despite the euphoria over the Pokhran blasts the Congress would triumph in the state polls held in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. We were proved correct, and a month later in our nationwide poll, Sonia Gandhi's popularity at 31 per cent had edged past Atal Bihari Vajpayee (27 per cent) for the first time. Moreover, had the elections been held in December 1998, we surmised that the Congress with 295-305 seats would easily outstrip the BJP with 125-135 seats.

In May 1999, after the Vajpayee government lost the vote of confidence, we held another nationwide poll. With Sonia's bungled bid for power the public mood swung sharply the other way. Vajpayee (43 per cent) regained his edge over Sonia (32 per cent) as the best prime ministerial candidate, and with a projected 220-232 seats the BJP and its allies had overtaken the Congress and allies (191-203 seats). It promised to be a close battle.

Our poll this week, continuing a tradition that we began in 1980, shows a further fluctuation in the public mood. It projects a sweep for the BJP, estimating 322-336 seats for the party and its allies, and a paltry 132-146 for the Congress. In addition 50 per cent feel Vajpayee should be prime minister, with only 26 per cent opting for Sonia.

It is a changing equation laced with ironies. The Vajpayee government actually generated a wave of sympathy when it lost the vote of confidence by one vote. Furthermore, only as a caretaker government did the BJP begin to get its act together, as demonstrated by its sure-footed handling of the Kargil crisis. Public opinion since has swung sharply its way.

Five weeks are left for the elections but as Wilson said one is a long time. The message is clear: the BJP should hold on to its laddoos for the time being.

(Aroon Purie)