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India Today issue dt September 6, 1999
Sep 6, 1999

Elections 99

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GUIDE TO VOTING
Who will you Vote For?

There are speeches, pows-wows on television and impressive manifestos that rarely outlive the results. For the Indian voter who doesn't vote along caste and religious lines, choosing a party is quite perplexing. You know what you want but can't be sure which party can give it. As India votes for the 13th Lok Sabha from September 5, INDIA TODAY guides the voter through the unending question marks.

National Democratic Alliiance (aka BJP)

YOU GET... ...BUT
One overriding leader who can lead from the front. Alliance partners demand hefty state packages and RSS claims its agenda.
N-weaponisation, increased defence expenditure and oodles of patriotism. International wariness over India's hegemonic intentions in the region.
Tough-talking Pakistan policy and no-nonsense stand on Kashmir. Tacit understanding with the US to make LoC the international border.
More liberalization, privatization and industry-friendly policies. Swadeshi means some Indian businesses are more equal than others.
Low personal taxes, low interest rates and lots of middle-class sops. Mounting deficit because there is no will to cut government expenditure.
National pride on display, foreigners out of culture and more Bollywood. Intolerance of the avant grade and to hell with Prasar Bharati autonomy.
Goody-goody Vajpayee style secularism, Ayodhya on hold. Quiet saffronisation of education in anticipation of the next time.

CHEF and His Cooks
For the three elections since 1991, the BJP's election appeal was based on a simple tack: you've tried the others, now try us. In 1998, the voters responded and the BJP reacted by obliterating its "distinctive" identity. Now the presidential-style campaign is for the re-election of the "tried, tested and trusted" Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The 24-party NDA promises the moon: stable government, vibrant economy, federal harmony and, above all, a strong India. The BJP agenda of a strong state has been married to economic liberalisation, technological razzmatazz, Dravidian nationalism and Hindutva. An unlikely synthesis forged by an incredibly lucky prime minister and a famous victory in Kargil.

To some, voting for the NDA is an act of faith, an expression of national self-respect. That is the easy part. More complex is digesting the belief that a coalition that includes the old Janata Dal rump can bring stability. Equally incredible is the conviction that yesterday's Ram bhakts have suddenly imbibed Nehruvian secularism. Less disingenuous though is the dilution of swadeshi. When it comes to economics, the NDA is possibly more pro-reform than anyone else. It didn't create the public sector and it won't blink dismantling it. It believes in low direct taxes. The middle class, consumerist instincts of the BJP guide it. Equally, don't snigger at its vision of a strong India. The bomb was part of the old National Agenda of Governance and when the Nuclear Doctrine talks of nuclear weaponising, the NDA means it.

CONGRESS
In the Family Way

It's sometimes hard to believe that the Congress was ruling the country just three years ago. Actually, Congressmen have not forgotten it, which is why, despite compelling evidence to the contrary, they still dream of single-party rule. It makes political sense though. The strongest plank of the Congress is the overwhelming public disapproval of coalitions. The party hopes to capitalise on it with the aid of India's best known political brand: the Nehru-Gandhi family. That's when it gets into all sorts of problems and faces embarrassing questions about the inexperienced Italian-born bahu.

YOU GET... ...BUT
Experienced middle-level leadership familiar with managing power. Party is faction-ridden. For every successful leader there are two to spite him.
Nuclear ambivalence, back to Third Worldism and non-alignment. Soft touch makes it tough to sell hard decisions like signing of CTBT.
Liberalise the economy further, redefine public sector, junk socialism. Too much Nehruvian baggage and lingering faith that socialism wins elections.
Flexible on personal taxation and generous with welfare programmes. Congress sees itself as party of the poor, regards middle class as enemy.
Maintaint the sanctity of the Constitution and promote liberal values. Non-friendly state governments are dispensable. Forget Prasar Bharati.

But dynasty is one aspect of the Congress package. Accompanying it is the claim -- sometimes made credible by the NDA's blunderings -- that it is the natural ruling party which knows how to manage power. It also claims to be better at managing change. That means the Congress is more inhibited about the free market than its opponents. It created the public sector and the gigantic bureaucratic apparatus and is, therefore, more cautious about disinvestment and deregulation. It is less sensitive to the middle class because the middle class doesn't vote for it. At the same time, the Congress is eminently pragmatic and will do what is expedient rather than ideologically correct. There is the Pachmarhi declaration and there are ground realities. The latter will inevitably prevail under Sonia as it did under Rajiv and Indira.

If today the Congress is spouting peacenik rhetoric, don't be misled. In power, its nuclear policy won't be all that different. The imagery will be. It will be as combative against Pakistan but won't wilfully upset the delicate communal balance at home unless it believes there is a percentage in changing tack. Like most well-entrenched centrist parties, the Congress doesn't have firm beliefs. It has a definite purpose: winning power and retaining it. It's the party of the old establishment that hates the new saffron interlopers. Vote for it if you believe India was a better place before.

ALSO IN THE RUNNING
The Third Front has disappeared but there are parties whose future lies in a hung 13th Lok Sabha. A fractured verdict gives them the space for manoeuvre.

» MULAYAM SINGH YADAV (SP): A secular coalition government that will put the BJP and Sonia out to grass. Will join any non-BJP government that recognises he is prima donna in Uttar Pradesh.
» H.S. SURJEET CPI (M): Can't join any government till CPI(M) gets a majority or Jyoti Basu gets his way. Doesn't care who forms the government as long as it's not the BJP and the CPI(M) brokers the deal.
» KANSHI RAM (BSP): Stability is an upper-caste plot, the Bahujan Samaj wants instability. Never averse to joining any side or ditching it as long as elections keep happening and his vote share keeps rising.
» SHARAD PAWAR (NCP): The NCP fights Congress authoritarianism and BJP communalism. The character of the government is negotiable except on two counts: Sonia must not be PM or Pawar less than deputy PM.

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