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INDIA TODAY-INSIGHT
POST-POLL SURVEY How India VotedTo understand verdict '99 a ppost-poll survey was conducted among 22,326 voters across 94 assembly segments. As Assistant Editor Ashok Malik finds out the post-poll seems to complement the real thing. Despite enormous advances, the BJP's reputation as being the favoured party of the entrenched sections of society is reflected in the fact that more than half the upper caste and many more men than women prefer it. Nevertheless, the strong showing among OBCs -- even if their support is down 4 per cent as compared to the CSDS survey reported in India Today after the 1998 elections -- indicates the sustained success of "social engineering" in what is now India's most representative party. There are two other pieces of good news for the BJP. One, from its traditional urban base it has made sufficient inroads to be the favourite party of rural India by a considerable margin. Two, in a nation whose population is becoming younger, it finds favour among nearly two of every voters under 24. For the Congress, the real story of this election is the return of the minorities. Its popularity among Muslims is a substantial 6 percentage points above the 1998 CSDS findings. Its appeal among SCs and STs must also be reassuring for its leadership in these sombre times. When did you decide which party you were going to vote for?
Should foreign origins disbar a person from
becoming PM?
Overall, Sonia Gandhi's Italian birth doesn't seem an overwhelming issue. More Hindus (48 per cent) than Muslims (31 per cent) did not want to see a naturalised citizen as prime minister. Among the states, support for Sonia on this score was highest in Kerala (58 per cent), Punjab (56 per cent) and Delhi (51 per cent). While 68 per cent of BJP voters wanted her disqualified, so did 20 per cent of Congress voters. Do you like the idea of a coalition government?
This is certainly not a vote for a coalition era. The negative response was at its highest among postgraduates (83 per cent) and the upper castes (82 per cent). It was sharp even in Maharashtra (80 per cent), Kerala (79 per cent), West Bengal (71 per cent), all of which of have long experience of multi-party governance. Nationally, of those who did prefer a coalition, 45 per cent opted for a BJP-led one and 30 per cent for one led by the Congress. Was Uttar Pradesh thinking differently? Results of the Lok Sabha poll already indicate the Uttar Pradesh voter's anger with the BJP. The figures below ratify that verdict. That people in the state regard the BJP as most corrupt among political parties -- nationally the Congress wins with 24 per cent -- suggest that much of the anger is directed at the local government and the petty day-to-day discomfort the citizen is put to. Even so, the Uttar Pradesh voter still has his reservations about the Congress president's foreign origins. The mixed signals are reflected in the thoroughly divided, if piquant, mandate the state has served up.
Did the BJP handle the Kargil crisis correctly?
While more agreed with the BJP's claim that it was best suited to protect the nation than with the Congress charge that the Vajpayee regime made a mess in Kargil, a significant 17 per cent were not even aware of the issue. Should the Lok Sabha's term be fixed for 5 years?
That about as many ruralites as urbanites (76 against 79 per cent) and Hindus as Muslims (78 against 70) want a fixed term indicates fatigue with frequent polls. Among states Kerala (34 per cent) stood out for being the strongest backer of the current system. |
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