Oct 18, 1999

Cover Story

Mandate 99

Columns

Newsnotes

From the
Editor in Chief

Editorials

Eyecatchers

Voices

Offtrack

Sports

Books

Bodyline

Centrestage

Issue Contents

Mulayam and Mayawati confound cynics and critics by picking up half the seats in Uttar Pradesh.

By Subhash Mishra

Nobody gave them a ghost of a chance. They were supposed to fall victim to an incumbent BJP and a resurgent Congress. But Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati surprised even their friends with their strong showing in Uttar Pradesh, numerically the most important province in the country. Between them they won half the state and, along with the Left, lead a stronger-than-expected "third force" presence in the new Lok Sabha. For the two gladiators, it must be a sweet moment.

MULAYAM SINGH YADAV
"Netaji" is at his best swimming against the current. Barely six months ago Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav stood alone, isolated by his "secular" allies after he foiled Sonia Gandhi's bid to form a post-NDA government. Even some of his partymen, including 13 MLAs, deserted him apprehending that his supporters, comprising the Muslims and the Yadavs, would turn against him. But with the SP winning 26 out of the 84 seats it contested, Mulayam has emphatically silenced his opponents.

Though the SP's vote share fell by 6 per cent, it has added six seats to last year's tally, wresting 14 seats from the BJP and two from the BSP. Not only did it retain the hold on its traditional vote bank, it also attracted a sizeable vote from the non-Yadav obcs, especially in central Uttar Pradesh.

In hindsight, it was Mulayam's aggressive campaigning that did the trick. Just when it appeared that he was losing ground, he played the anti-incumbency card to the hilt and went about staging rallies, demonstrations and dharnas to protest against the BJP's failure to ensure proper civic amenities in Uttar Pradesh. First off the mark to launch the campaign, he personally covered all the constituencies in the state. The ferocious pace paid off. The lone ranger pitted against the might of the RSS network and the media finished just three seats behind the BJP.

While Mulayam lost no opportunity to remind voters of the infighting within the state BJP, rumours that a "marginalised"Chief Minister Kalyan Singh would join hands with him added to the confusion. In fact in Farrukhabad, Sachchidanand Sakshi Maharaj, Kalyan loyalist and BJP rebel who was refused a ticket, actually campaigned for the SP, which eventually won the seat. Etawah, the hometown of Mulayam, similarly went the SP way.

Repeated claims of Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Salman Khurshid that the Muslims had deserted Mulayam to join the Congress were also disproved when Khurshid's wife, Louise Khurshid, suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the sp in Farrukhabad. Though the number of Muslim MPs in the party came down from three to two, the heavyweights prevailed. They included Mulayam (Sambhal, Kannauj), Balram Singh Yadav (Mainpuri), Raj Babbar (Agra) and Phoolan Devi (Mirzapur). sp state President Ram Sharan Das claims the sp would have been No.1 if "rigging had not taken place in some places".

The bravado notwithstanding, by turning adversity into opportunity, Mulayam has yet again emerged a formidable force. In the state, he will be the BJP's main challenger; at the Centre any "third front" will have to be built around him.

MAYAWATI
For the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Election '99 has been an unqualified triumph. Weighed under the burden of "redeeming" itself after its last-minute switch that cost the BJP its government in April, the party more than trebled its tally by cornering 14 seats in the quadrangular contest in Uttar Pradesh. The strategy of party leader and two-time chief minister Mayawati -- who retained the Akbarpur seat despite supposed challenges -- to project a more mellow face clearly paid off.

With a monopolistic hold over the Dalits, particularly the Chamar sub-caste, Mayawati sought to widen acceptability by fielding many candidates from other castes. As she pointed out in meeting after meeting, among the 85 BSP candidates, 38 were OBCs, 20 from the upper castes -- and 17 Muslims. It was an eye-opener of sorts when at least three upper-caste dominated pockets voted BSP candidates to power.

Even in Sultanpur, where the contest was essentially between the Congress and the sp after BJP candidate Satyadev Singh filed incomplete nomination papers, the upper-caste Thakurs sprang a surprise by voting for Jaibhadra Singh of the BSP. In Ghosi, Dara Singh Chauhan stunned the BSP when he defeated longtime MP Kalpnath Rai's widow (Congress) and son (BJP). Though the BSP lost in Billhaur, a Brahmin stronghold, the slender 3,000-vote margin by which the BJP candidate won was encouraging enough for the party. "More than a dozen of our candidates lost narrowly," says Dayaram Pal, the BSP's Uttar Pradesh president. "If they had made it, the BSP's showing would have been even more stunning."

Bad news also came from those constituencies represented by the party last time. Barring Mayawati, the other three MPs from the 12th Lok Sabha, including the high-profile Arif Mohammad Khan (Bahraich) and Akbar Ahmed "Dumpy" (Azamgarh), were trounced.

This notwithstanding, the party's tally crossed the double digit mark for the first time. Its growth has been dramatic. In 1991, the BSP's tally was reduced to one from two in 1989. And though it secured six seats in 1996, it could manage only four in 1998. Its vote share which peaked at 20.6 per cent in 1996 from 8 per cent in 1991 has been on the upward swing since.

Much of the credit goes to Mayawati herself. She spearheaded the party's campaign in the state. Through her fiery speeches, she targeted the BJP and Congress alike. By exploiting the anti-incumbency factor in Uttar Pradesh and broadbasing her vote bank, the "villian" of the 12th Lok Sabha will walk into the 13th House triumphantly. With state elections two years away, maybe earlier, Mayawati must be confident that nobody can win without her backing. The lady's in business.

Back | Next