Oct 18, 1999

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Andhra's Naidu is told to hang on. Karnataka's JD (U)-BJP team is summarily hanged. And the Maharashtra Assembly is hung.

It's every politician's nightmare, mixing state and Lok Sabha elections. This year three big states encountered this predicament: Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, not to mention Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. There were more than just a couple of election results at stake. For Sharad Pawar in Mumbai, his individual prowess was on test, given that he had just split the Congress. For N. Chandrababu Naidu in Hyderabad, the election was a referendum on a whole new style of techno-savvy governance. For the JD(U)-BJP combine in Bangalore, a shotgun political wedding sought public sanction. For amateur political scientists -- and there are a dozen born in India every minute -- it was yet again time to assess whether there is a correlation between assembly elections and the parliamentary poll. In the end old-fashioned political virtue triumphed. Don't underestimate the people. don't overestimate yourself.

ANDHRA PRADESH
When he flashed the V sign after asking for votes during the election campaign, few imagined that Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief Nara Chandrababu Naidu could pull off a convincing electoral triumph. But it was the seat-sharing arrangement, though delayed, with the BJP to capitalise on the popularity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee that gave both parties the cutting edge. Despite pre-poll expectations and its strident anti-Naidu campaign, the opposition Congress was restricted to less than 100 seats in the 294-member Assembly.

"The result is a positive vote for development," exults Naidu, whose various schemes for women, farmers and youth had raised hopes and won the party many supporters. If Naidu's pro-people policies turned incumbency into an advantage, his pact with the BJP enabled the alliance to sweep the Lok Sabha polls and get a two-thirds majority in the Assembly. The Congress, on the other hand, had never imagined it would get such a drubbing. Led by the ebullient APCC chief Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, the party focused only on removing the sheen off Naidu's public image but failed to match his well-calibrated campaign that relied on development and welfare packages aimed at different target groups. The Congress leaned heavily on the appeal party President Sonia Gandhi has on voters in the state. "The huge turnout at her rallies gave us the impression that we were on a winning wicket," says AICC General Secretary Anil Shastri, in charge of Andhra affairs.

That the Congress' counter-promises of free electricity to farmers and doles to jobless graduates did not go down as well with the electorate is a pointer to the greater endorsement of Naidu's governance. Having put Andhra Pradesh on the info-tech highway, in his second term Naidu pledges to take the state even faster along the rocky reform route. For this the "king-maker" is open to the idea of joining the Vajpayee ministry "because it helps protect the state's interests and get more funds".

While he hopes foreign capital and potential investors will endorse his comeback, in the coming months Naidu will also have to impose unpopular taxes to raise revenue for the cash-strapped state and take harsh steps to make the administration accountable. Considering that the latest triumph is largely due to his own efforts, Naidu will further tighten his hold over the party. That he has not encouraged nor will allow a second line of leadership to emerge is a safeguard against squabbles or a revolt in the ranks though several insiders dislike his autocratic style.

-Amarnath K. Menon

MAHARASHTRA
For someone whose symbol Is the clock, it is a great irony that Sharad Pawar got his timing wrong. Once again. Just last March, he managed a bunch of desperate Congressmen to win 33 seats in the 12th Lok Sabha, managed a lead in 211 of the 288 assembly segments and emerged as a serious contender for the top job at the Centre. Thirteen months later, a disgruntled Pawar split from the Congress and formed the Nationalist Congress Party. "We will return between 55 and 60 MPs," he had said in the course of the campaign. Close aide Praful Patel had claimed then, "Ours will be a decisive role in the next Parliament." In less than 24 hours of the ballot boxes opening last week, Pawar was left with little or no role to play with just six MPs in his kitty. His party had -- by default -- elected 28 Shiv Sena-BJP MPs and 125 MLAs, paving the road for a second term for the beleaguered alliance which feared a rout even on the eve of the polls.

The journey from national ambitions to regional aspirations turned out to be short and bitter. "His dreams lie shattered and he stands totally exposed," says Sena chief Bal Thackeray, all set to stake claim once again. What makes the tragedy worse for Pawar is that the Congress returned 10 MPs and 75 MLAs even without the Pawar prowess. With 58 seats in the state Assembly, he can't even offer his support to the Congress to form a possible alternative to the saffron alliance unless he swallows his pride. Such is the animosity between the Congress cousins that Mumbai Congress chief Murli Deora pefers "an enemy like the Sena to a friend like Sharad Pawar".

In his mind though, Pawar has achieved his first objective: damaging the Congress' chances at the Centre. His second ambition, to occupy the throne in Delhi, may take some time. But playing the waiting game is nothing new for a man who lived eight years in political wilderness after becoming the youngest chief minister at 38 and waited a decade for his second innings. Except he had to come back to the Congress. What is to be seen now is whether he can do without the Congress and a weakened Congress without him. The clock is ticking once again.

-V. Shankar Aiyar and Sheela Raval

KARNATAKA
The lotus withered. The arrow missed its mark. The tractor refused to move. And giants in Karnataka's various political parties just went for a toss: in one of the biggest surges, the Congress romped home in 132 (out of 224) Assembly seats -- almost 40 more than it expected -- in the southern state, humbling hot favourites the JD(U)-BJP combine. "We must actually thank Lok Shakti founder and Union Commerce Minister Ramakrishna Hegde for bringing the two parties together and handing us a comfortable majority," remarked a Congress leader. The sheer confusion the last-minute alliance created among the rank and file of the two parties only helped the Congress.

Somanhalli Maddur Krishna, 67, state Congress chief and the man chosen by the party high command as the new chief minister, is the architect of the party's success in the assembly polls. "The minority and the backward classes voted for us overwhelmingly," said Krishna, as visitors flocked his Raj Mahal Vilas Extension residence on October 7 night to congratulate him.

Krishna who was the object of a joke cracked by the outgoing Karnataka chief minister, the balding J.H. Patel -- "We don't hide anything unlike some people who wear wigs to cover up", a dig at Krishna wearing a wig -- was beaming after learning that Patel was among the political heavyweights who sunk without a trace. Patel got a drubbing at the hands of a BJP rebel candidate. Other prominent losers include: state BJP chief and chief ministerial aspirant B.S. Yediyurappa; state JD(S) chief Siddaramaiah, as also his mentor, JD(S) president and former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda (who lost in Hassan while his son H.D. Kumaraswamy lost from Satnur). Even Hegde's lieutenant and state Lok Shakti chief Jeevaraj Alva bit the dust.

The anti-incumbency factor which the BJP was planning to exploit earlier, favoured the Congress thanks to the last-minute controversy over seat sharing. Riding the Congress victory, senior state leaders like C.K. Jaffer Sharief (who won his seventh Lok Sabha term from Bangalore North) and Mallikarjuna Kharge (former CLP leader) also threw their hats into the ring -- although Krishna's choice was a foregone conclusion.

-Stephen David

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