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There
was an element of Bushism in the resolution adopted by the Union Cabinet
which met just five hours after the attack on Parliament, including the
Texan brag in the choice of words: "We will liquidate the terrorists
and their sponsors, wherever they are and whoever they are." Now
all India has to do is walk the big talk as the US president has done
in Afghanistan.
It was the statement "wherever they are" that was going to
be the crimson test for what a senior Defence Ministry official describes
as the new "hammer and tongs" Indian approach towards terrorists.
For if evidence mounted that it was Pakistan-backed militants who were
behind the crime, the giant question was whether India would swing the
proverbial hammer across to what even Benazir Bhutto now terms as Pakistan-Occupied
Kashmir. That, of course, would mean war. Even if India may want to limit
its attack to training camps of militants located on the other side of
the Line of Control (LoC).
India initially seems to have opted for "cold pursuit"-a term
derisively used by security experts to describe the country's typically
delayed and graded response to such strikes. The matter of crossing the
LoC was hotly debated at the Cabinet Committee for Security Affairs (CCS)
meeting that preceded the full cabinet meeting. Intelligence agencies
which briefed the CCS were against such precipitate action. They believed
that part of the objective of the militants' strike was to goad India
into a war with Pakistan.
The agencies then successfully argued that this would be playing into
the hands of terrorist organisations which are now reeling under the body
blow to Islamic fundamentalism in Afghanistan. The reasoning was that
the disintegration of the Al Qaida network in Afghanistan had made terrorists
in Jammu and Kashmir, who received funds, arms and moral support from
it, feel endangered. Moreover, under international pressure Pakistan was
showing signs of cutting off support to such organisations. So if India
acted now it would bring the Pakistani establishment and terrorists into
an undesirable union for survival.
There were other factors that had to be taken into consideration before
taking the battle into Pakistani territory. A limited war may be the objective
but things could easily go out of control. As General Shankar Roy Choudhury,
former chief of army staff and Rajya Sabha MP, points out, "There
is a limit to which the counter terrorist operations can be intensified.
The Government will have to understand that this could lead to horizontal
escalation and a full-blown conventional conflict." The overarching
worry is that in an act of desperation Pakistan may want to turn it into
a nuclear war. Something that makes the US extremely concerned, making
it constantly advise India to exercise restraint while planning hostilities
against Pakistan.
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KAPIL
KAK
Retd air vice-marshal and dy director, IDSA |
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RAISE
THE STAKES
This attack doesn't come as a surprise. There have
been enough intelligence inputs over the past weeks
to suggest that Parliament was a target for attack.
We are living in an era not of uncertainty but of inconceivability;
if airliners can be used as weapons, then a five-man
suicide strike is chicken feed. Nothing can be ruled
out, not even a terrorist strike against our nuclear
installations. Politically and militarily, a cross-border
strike is an unwise decision and can be regarded as
macho immaturity. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-
weapon states and we cannot afford to play around with
nuclear thresholds. There are sufficient instruments
available within the regimes of restraint. For example,
we could conduct operations with special forces to increase
the costs to Pakistan of fighting a proxy war.
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J.G.
NADKARNI
Former navy chief |
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DON'T
BE RAMBO
The strikes were audacious no doubt, but the fact
that they could not penetrate the inner sanctum was
commendable. The task before us now is to increase our
internal security and hunt down the terrorists. Air
strikes by the US and Israel are Rambo-ish options,
but let's not get carried away. All you can hope to
do is hit a few terrorist camps. Even if these are destroyed,
the problem of terrorism won't go away and could land
us in a war we can't afford. While a strike across the
border can lift the national ego, the disadvantages
outweigh its benefits-for starters, this is just what
Pakistan wants us to do, to paint us as the aggressors.
Secondly, I'm convinced that this attack is one of the
last gasps of terrorism. After September 11, terrorists
won't find it easy to get state sponsorship without
which they cannot last very long.
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The CCS, therefore, used the Bush ploy of "either you bring them
to justice or justice will be brought to them". Pakistan was told
firmly that it would have to curb all activities of the Lashkar-e-Toiba
and the Jaish-e-Mohammed, which India says are based in Pakistan, arrest
their leaders and cut off all funds.
Meanwhile, security forces were asked to do everything short of crossing
the LoC to crush terrorism. A.K. Suri, Jammu and Kashmir police chief,
says, "Inflicting maximum damage on militants and cutting our losses
will be the centrepiece of our counter-militancy strategy." The army
may still try to inflict damage to militants holed up across the border
by using precision artillery strikes with laser-guided shells that may
need air support for identifying the targets.
Yet as the past years have demonstrated these haven't lowered the intensity
of militancy in Kashmir. This year alone over 2,000 militants have been
killed and the security forces have lost 100 men. Despite the high losses,
militants have not been deterred from mounting daring attacks, including
one on the J&K Assembly on October 1. As Suri points out, "Militancy
continues to be on an upswing, and infiltration is high. It's time for
the country to define the threshold. How long can we take this nonsense
exported from across the border?"
It is a question the Government will have to address sooner rather than
later. The common refrain echoed in former foreign secretary J.N. Dixit's
words: "Just look at how Israel reacts. Unfortunately, it doesn't
seem in our nature to act." In the past decade despite grave provocations
India has shied away from taking the battle to Pakistan. In 1993, when
militants laid siege to the Charar-e-Sharif shrine in the Valley, the
army and the Foreign Ministry had recommended strikes at camps across
the border. But the P.V. Narasimha Rao government demurred stating that
the country was passing through a grave financial crisis and a communal
one with the fall of the Babri Masjid the previous year.
Now tough action will find favour. There is international support for
action against terrorism. India's unstinted support to the US in Afghanistan
and its growing closeness to the superpower means that America could be
made to see India's reason. The military, which has been on high alert
after Kargil and September 11, now has enough troops on the border to
launch a war if needed. There is likely to be domestic support for stern
measures. Politically too with a crucial state election in Uttar Pradesh
due, it may suit the BJP-led Government to go in for the hard option.
If Pakistan doesn't react to the demands, India may finally be forced
to act.
-with Ramesh Vinayak and Sandeep Unnithan
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