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NEW POSITIONING: Musharraf wants to
tell the world that he is the great moderate hope for Pakistan
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During his
illustrious career in the Pakistan Army, General Pervez Musharraf came
to be known as a commander who led from the front and was not afraid of
taking risks. His peers also complimented him for having a sharp and analytical
mind. Not only was he decorated for valour in the 1965 and 1971 wars against
India, he is a rare soldier who rose from the ranks
of the Special Services Group-the commando unit known more for its daring
than its tactical prowess-to become the army chief. The General now faces
his toughest ever challenge, in which he must bring all his purported
qualities to ensure not only the security of his country but of his vision
for Pakistan as well as his own personal position.
Since the WTC attacks, Musharraf has presided over tumultuous changes
in Pakistan's geostrategic outlook. He abandoned Pakistan's erstwhile
allies in Afghanistan, the Taliban, even in the face of the possibility
that this would be exploited by India, Pakistan's longtime rival in the
region. In doing so, he also managed to convince his military colleagues
to rethink a three-decade-long policy of cultivating "strategic depth"
in Afghanistan to counter India. By siding with the US, he weathered criticism
that he was America's general.
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COVER STORY |
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THE
MANY FACES OF MUSHARRAF |
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Mr Kargil, May 1999: General Pervez Musharraf,
chief of army staff, masterminds the Kargil offensive.
Its failure puts him out of sorts with the Nawaz Sharif
government.
The Usurper, October 1999: Musharraf pre-empts
a move by Sharif to sideline him and successfully stages
a bloodless coup. Assumes total control of all levers
of power.
The Great Dictator, November, 2000: In a masterstroke
he gets rid of a major political headache by sending
Sharif into exile in Saudi Arabia by a presidential
pardon. He also keeps Benazir Bhutto at bay by pursuing
the graft charges against her.
The Politician, July 2001: Wins the propaganda
war at the Agra Summit and emerges as champion of the
Kashmir cause. Holds local bodies elections and makes
moves to establish himself as a politician.
America's General, September 2001: After the
September 11 attacks agrees to ally with the US and
abandons the Taliban and its two-decade-old policy of
controlling Afghan affairs.
The Artful Dodger, December 2001: After the
December 13 attack Musharraf makes cosmetic moves to
take the alleged culprits such as JeM leader Masood
Azhar into custody to satisfy international demands.
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Understanding that Pakistan would come under pressure to curb religious
fundamentalism soon after the end of the Afghanistan campaign, the general
moved briskly. He took decisive steps to curtail the jehadi culture that
had taken root in the country primarily thanks to his predecessors. Even
President George W. Bush acknowledged that Musharraf was delivering. As
expected, his efforts in this regard earned him the wrath of the right
wing religious parties and hawks who stood to lose the most from this
realignment. But Musharraf rode out not only the public fury at his decisions
but also the resentment within his army. He sidelined some recalcitrant
colleagues to emerge as a leader firmly in control.
The December 13 attack on India's Parliament, however, put Musharraf
in a piquant situation. The US and much of the world put pressure on Pakistan
to take action against the groups alleged to be behind the assault. The
massive build up of Indian troops on the border now poses the most serious
threat to Pakistan's security since he took charge as President through
a coup in October 1999. Especially after he left the Agra Summit with
India in July 2001 as a leader unwilling to compromise on his country's
fundamental interest. Having justified policy reversals in Afghanistan
as necessary for preserving the security of Pakistan and its Kashmir cause,
he is now faced with the prospect of abandoning one or the other.
With the threat of war with India looming, Musharraf must make critical
decisions. His vision of Pakistan, which he has outlined many a time,
has no place for the kind of religious dogmatism promoted by the jehadi
parties. Yet to move against these elements under obvious pressure from
India may invite the kind of backlash even he may not be able to bear.
And a Pakistani leader perceived as having abandoned the emotive "freedom
struggle" in Kashmir would only be signalling his own political death.
The general is truly in a jam.
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If the General abandons the emotive 'freedom
struggle' in Kashmir, the backlash could be politically suicidal.
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In the past week, Musharraf demonstrated some deft footwork in the face
of such adversity. Understanding that he had to appear to the world, especially
the US, as someone who was serious about tackling terrorism in his own
backyard, he made the correct noises, rounded up leaders of some jehadi
groups and the New York Times reported that he had even ordered the ISI
to stop backing Islamic militant groups fighting in Kashmir and only to
support organisations with local roots. So much so that President Bush
mounted pressure on India to give the General time to act and prove his
credentials rather than push him with war cries.
To demonstrate that he was not doing all this under Indian pressure,
Pakistan brushed aside India's demand to hand over 20-odd alleged terrorists
before a dialogue could be resumed (see accompanying story).
Foreign Minister Abdus Sattar claimed in Kathmandu-where he was attending
the SAARC conference-that those arrested could be handed over to India
only if the Indian Government provided proof against them and fulfilled
legal formalities. President Musharraf took a much tougher stand. Just
before he left for Kathmandu, he declared at a joint meeting of the National
Security Council and the Cabinet on January 2 that "there is no question
of anyone being handed over". If proof of involvement in terrorist
activities is furnished against anybody, he continued, they would be proceeded
against in Pakistan.
While such tough talk kept his domestic constituency happy, Musharraf
also took steps to counter India's massive troop build up on the border
and the threatening noises being continuously made, especially by India's
Defence Minister George Fernandes. Pakistan put its own strike corps on
high alert. "Pakistan has only deployed such forces that ensure Pakistan's
defence," said Major-General Rashid Qureshi, the President's spokesperson.
"It continues to exercise maximum restraint. However, the Pakistan
Government will ensure that Pakistan retains the capability of a reciprocal
action, depending on what the Indian armed forces do."
Pakistan made no bones that even if India limited its strike to the
LoC on the Kashmir border, it would not restrict just to this sector its
options of striking back. Any talk of opening up other fronts either in
Punjab or Rajasthan essentially meant that Pakistan was ready for a full-scale
conventional war. That set off alarm bells in Washington D.C. and in other
world capitals-something that Pakistan knew would see them putting pressure
on India to back off.
Musharraf was clever enough to understand that the US would not want
a subcontinental war that would derail its Afghan campaign. With US troops
stationed on its soil (at least two air force bases-at Jacobabad and Pasni-are
being used by America for "logistic support") and Pakistani
armed forces patrolling the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan to
help the US capture fleeing fighters of Osama bin Laden's Al Qaida, Pakistan
has significant importance for the coalition forces. Any diversion of
Pakistani forces in a war with India would not only endanger the security
of US troops, it would jeopardise the US strategy in Afghanistan. In addition,
the risks of the US staying neutral in such a conflict would be as profound
as the dangers of choosing sides.
The Americans did help in defusing a critical situation around December
22, according to highly placed sources. According to them, Pakistan was
convinced that an Indian attack was imminent when it received intelligence
reports about IAF planes being brought out of their hangars. Musharraf
then conveyed to US Secretary of State Colin Powell that he would pull
out his troops-almost two corps-from the Afghan-Pakistan border to move
them to the east. This greatly worried the US and Powell's subsequent
phone calls to Indian leaders only just managed to pull the situation
back from the brink.
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