SIGN OF THE TIME: Supporters of jehadi groups show their solidarity at a demonstration in Islamabad; despite the tough measures, the army continues to back Musharraf (below)

Musharraf understands the US would not want an Indo -Pak war that could derail its Afghanistan campaign.

With the US mounting pressure to act, Musharraf moved further than any previous Pakistan Government to crack down on religious militants within the country-one of the key demands of the Indian Government. In countrywide operations, the offices of all the major jehadi groups were shut down, a ban on their collection of donations was enforced and a number of activists were arrested. By Thursday, over 100 members of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)-the two groups alleged by India to be involved in the attack on its Parliament on December 13-had been rounded up, though the exact numbers were disputed. More significantly, the leaders of both groups, JeM's Maulana Masood Azhar and LeT's Hafiz Mohammad Saeed had been put behind bars, officially for making inflammatory speeches.

The spokespersons of both groups confirmed the arrests and the shutting down of operations. "All our offices in Pakistan have been closed down and all our operations are now limited to the region of Jammu and Kashmir," explains LeT spokesperson Yahya Mujahid. "It is very unfortunate and unjust that the ameer of Jamaat Al-Dawa (LeT's spiritual parent organisation), Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, has been arrested merely because of Indian propaganda against us." Similar resentment was voiced by Hasan Burki, the JeM spokesperson, who was contacted in Bahawalpur. "We have repeatedly said that we were not involved in the Indian stage-managed drama of the attack on their Parliament. The Government says Maulana Azhar has been arrested because of law and order issues. We are waiting to see if this is true or whether this is state terrorism on the part of the Government."

The Indian Government initially expressed a cautious welcome of the arrests, with Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh calling them "a step in the right direction". But it also added that much more needed to be done by the Pakistan Government before matters could be deescalated. Many in Pakistan view this pressure as counter-productive. They point out the Indian Government needs to realise that Musharraf has already taken as significant measures as he could in the prevailing circumstances. "No civilian government could have taken these steps, especially not under such pressure from India," says Aamer Ahmed Khan, editor of the monthly newsmagazine Herald. "It would have been swamped by protests or booted out by the army which would have seen the moves as the Government capitulating to India. The question is, does India want to encourage this realignment of policy or does it want to create conditions for the hawks to take over?"

In a bid to pacify such constituencies, Musharraf's Government may allow jehadi groups some leeway. Analysts believe that many of the jehadi outfits will now attempt to re-profile themselves as political forces within Kashmir, dissociating themselves from their Pakistani origins. This would help them to remove the tag of "foreign terrorists" in the international arena and also allow the Pakistan Government to claim that it is not playing host to such groups on its territory. That is something India is clearly worried about and has already voiced its concern vociferously.

So far, the situation on the border with India has only strengthened Musharraf's position vis-a-vis the political opposition. All political parties have expressed support for the Government's approach in the stand-off with India, proving yet again that nothing brings a fractured polity together better than an external threat. "Elections are very important but this is not the time to pressurise the Government for them," says Shah Ahmed Noorani, leader of the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Pakistan. "We have to set aside our differences. This is a time to be united."

In a bid to bolster internal support, Musharraf recently met with a number of political leaders, including former president Farooq Leghari, Asfandyar Wali of the ANP, leaders of the MQM and the Jamaat-e-Islami, who all reportedly called for efforts to defuse tensions with India but also expressed their unity with the Government in any possible conflict. Predictably, the smaller religious parties were the most vociferous in their support, sensing in the tensions an opportunity to reclaim some of the space they lost in the past few months. But a sign of the lack of credible opposition to Musharraf is the fact that the NWFP-based ANP has thrown its full weight behind him in recent times, even to the extent of walking out of the multi-party Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD).

The two major political parties, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League stayed away from the meeting but for differing reasons. The exiled former premier's faction of the Muslim League was not invited and its convenor, Raja Zafrul Haq, refused to attend in his personal capacity. PPP Senior Vice-President Makhdoom Amin Faheem later claimed he could not catch a flight to Islamabad in time for the meeting. In a surprising gesture of reconciliation, the Government then sent a special envoy to Benazir Bhutto in Dubai. She said later that "the ice was broken" between the Government and her party.

Fortunately for Musharraf, Pakistan's economy is, in some ways, in a much better shape today than it has been for over a decade. Foreign exchange reserves are at around $4.5 billion whereas they usually hovered around the $1.5 billion mark, primarily due to an influx of money from expatriate citizens. The recent rescheduling of loan payments with the Paris Club donors and the IMF has also given the country some much-needed economic breathing space. In addition, inflation is the lowest it has been in some time and agriculture is flourishing.

But having said that, the economy can scarcely absorb the impact of a war with India. As it is, industrial production and manufacturing are reeling from the impact of the US-led war in Afghanistan which resulted in a substantial loss of export orders. Musharraf's economic managers had been hopeful of an economic revival in the post-Afghan war situation, especially after negotiating favourable deals with European countries and the US as a reward for Pakistan's help to the anti-terror coalition. But for that economic revival to materialise, it is necessary that there is stability and peace in the region.

There are voices of dissent even within Musharraf's own constituency. The American pressure to crack down on militants in Pakistan is viewed with some concern within the Pakistan establishment. "We can't trust the US," says one senior official on condition of anonymity. "It has LeT us down before. We're not even sure they really want to prevent a war between India and Pakistan."

They fear that the US, having achieved its ends in Afghanistan, will abandon Pakistan and is in fact interested in cutting its military down to size. In particular, they feel that after the Taliban, Pakistan will come under pressure to renounce the Kashmir issue and its nuclear weapons. Many also feel that the US' real concerns in the region relate to the growing influence of China, for which it wants to use India as a counter-balance.

Musharraf continues to walk the tightrope. He has bought himself and Pakistan time by seemingly taking action against jehadi groups. However, the perception in Pakistan is that he has gone as far as he can go at the moment in cracking down on religious parties. For the General to go any further without risking a serious backlash, he would require breathing space that the threat of war is fast choking up.