DUAL TACTICS: Jaswant cold-shouldered Sattar in Kathmandu (left); Fernandes inspects a bunker on the Indo-Pak border

Islamabad's negative response to the most-wanted list has India planning tougher diplomatic offensives.

That Delhi is still not assured of Islamabad's commitment to action against terrorism directed at India was symbolically conveyed by External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh at the SAARC summit in Kathmandu. Signalling a tough Indian stand on terrorism, Jaswant merely shook hands with his Pakistani counterpart Abdul Sattar when he met him on January 2 and smiled for the cameras. He did not initiate any formal or informal dialogue despite intense international, particularly the US, pressure to ease tensions.

India is upset over Pakistan's response-"show us the evidence"- to the list it submitted of 20 terrorists and criminals most wanted in India who are believed to have taken refuge in Pakistan. India wants Pakistan to take action against those named in the "most wanted" list under the UN Security Council Resolution 1373 that urges all countries to eradicate the scourge of terrorism. Delhi's effort, however, is not confined to the list but on making the world aware that Pakistan is part of the terrorism problem and not the solution. The Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government is prepared to take stronger diplomatic measures against Pakistan if it does not take immediate steps to deal with terrorism against India.

The perception is that while General Pervez Musharraf made a strategic choice to act against terrorist groups targeting America under US pressure, he is still to come to terms with the extremists operating in Jammu and Kashmir. And till such time, Delhi will have the options
of withdrawing the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status from Pakistan and abrogating the Indus Water Treaty. "We should make it clear to Pakistan that if it can bleed us in Jammu and Kashmir, we have the capability to starve them," says G. Parthasarathy, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan.

COVER STORY VOICES OF RESTRAINT AMERICA "US is leaning on the Musharraf regime to rein in the terrorists. President Bush has expressed understanding for the feelings in India." Colin Powell, Secretary of State G-8 COUNTRIES "We urge Pakistan to take further action against such groups, to arrest and severely punish their leaders and to curtail their financing." G-8 statement EUROPE "The European Union considers it indispensable that the strongest measures be taken by Pakistan for putting an end to the actions of terrorist groups." EU statement RUSSIA "We understand your outrage. Your demands for prohibition of terrorist groups are justified. There is no good or bad terrorist." Igor Ivanov, Foreign Minister BRITAIN "These violent groups have no place in a modern society. I urge Musharraf to continue his action against them with resolve." Jack Straw, Foreign Secretary UNITED NATIONS "I condemn the attack on Parliament in the strongest possible terms. I am grateful for the continued restraint being shown by India." Kofi Anan, UN Secretary-General

The strategy of deft diplomatic manoeuvres combined with military posturing against Pakistan has paid some dividends with the international community now convinced that the locus of terrorism has crossed the Durand Line from Afghanistan. India's approach since the outrageous attack on Parliament has been to ensure maximum international pressure on Pakistan to make it act against terrorist groups on its own and avoid a military conflict with India. Clarifying what he expected from Pakistan, Vajpayee told the press before leaving for Kathmandu, "The two crucial elements in this would be strict curbs on sources of finance and denial of safe havens for training, arming and operations of terrorists."

While Vajpayee is determined to adopt a strong diplomatic posture, the Government is signalling that India, as a responsible South Asian power, has no intentions of initiating military action against Pakistan. Signs of this were evident in the prime minister's New Year message and the Government's statement welcoming Pakistani action against the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorist groups.

At the same time, the Government is on guard against any repetition of the Kargil and the Agra fiasco that followed the prime minister's Lahore bus journey and the Kumarakom musings. The Indian strategy involves a "measured and calibrated" action on the diplomatic front that goes hand in hand with determination to repel any Pakistani misadventure on its borders.

While there has been no dilution of the Indian diplomatic posture, the military option seems to have temporarily taken a back seat after Pakistan arrested LeT and JeM leaders and clamped down on their activities. However, Delhi is not convinced by reports that Musharraf has asked the ISI not to back jehadi movement in Kashmir. Senior officials say, "Terrorism is terrorism even if it assumes a different name. Violence is unjustified whatever be the end game. By simply breaking the Pakistani link from Jammu and Kashmir, Islamabad thinks that it can fool the international community."

OFFENSIVE DEFENCE: BSF men take position as Pakistani troops open fire in the Jammu sector. Military build-up on the border has continued despite international pressure.

"If diplomacy fails, we are left with the option that the US exercised." G. Fernandes, Indian Defence Minister

While Delhi has given serious thought to the US calls for restraint, the Vajpayee Government finds it difficult to buy the American line that Musharraf is a changed man and will deliver on terrorism. Despite the US operational requirements in Afghanistan, Pakistan is known to have deployed two infantry divisions from its Peshawar-based 11 Corps and Quetta-based 12 Corps on the Indo-Pakistan border. The Indian military build-up on the Line of Control (LoC) and the borders, the biggest since the 1971 Indo-Pakistan conflict, is primarily aimed at deterring any Pakistani aggression.

Delhi's military posture, described as "offensive-defensive" by Defence Ministry officials, is calibrated to ensure that no Pakistani misadventure goes unpunished. While the Indian armed forces will not initiate hostilities, they have been primed to retaliate against Pakistani assaults-from Poonch-Rajouri sector on the LoC to the Raghubir Singh Pura sector on the international border.

Given the low Pakistani nuclear threshold, the Indian assessment is that a conventional conflict has every chance of going nuclear. However, this does not prevent the Indian side from taking military action against any infiltration from across the borders.

India's long-term strategy is to ensure that terrorism is rooted out from the subcontinent and to make the political establishment in Pakistan realise that India will not compromise on the Jammu and Kashmir issue. While Vajpayee has indicated that India was ready to walk "more than half the distance" to sort out all outstanding bilateral issues-including Kashmir-with Pakistan, the Indian Government has also shown willingness to open new diplomatic fronts to convey its seriousness on the terrorism issue.

But with Islamabad dilly-dallying even on the "most wanted" list, at best a sideshow in the war against terror, the Vajpayee Government may be forced to look beyond diplomacy. As Defence Minister George Fernandes warns, "If they should fail, then we are left with the only option that the US exercised to deal with terrorism." Everyone knows what that means.