The NewspaperToday  |  HOME      

  IN THIS ISSUE
SEE COVER IMAGE

COVER STORY


The General in a Jam
India's Most Wanted
Soft Options Hard Battles
Big Brother Barks

 
OTHER STORIES


The Sop Target
Banking on Dole
Trying Times
The Future is Here
True Colours of US-64
Pay Less to Talk More
The Bull that Failed
Changing Direction
Scitech Monitor
Jehad's Dirty Money
Hot and Happening
Sir Mark
History Dawns

 
COLUMNS


Fifth Column: Tavleen Singh
Kautilya: Jairam Ramesh

 
METRO TODAY


Diary of Events

 

This British Asian DJ has created ripples in the Asian
music industry.

NRI DIARY

London Diary
India Calling
People: Queen's Knights
Entertainment: Stars & Strides
Looking Glass
American Roundup
Weekly Round Up
Books: Jaunty Ride

 

 
WEB ONLY FEATURES

The Bhopal conference on Dalits gives the Congress an opportunity to assess its policies on the backward classes and recognise some hard political truths. India Today's Special Correspondent
Neeraj Mishra reports.
Caste Apart
 
INDIA TODAY CONCLAVE

India Today brings together the world’s most respected names to discuss the strategic, geo-political and economic future
of India.
Register Now
 
CARE TODAY
 
INDIA TODAY HINDI
 
 
 CURRENT ISSUE JAN 14, 2002  

STATE POLL 2002: UTTAR PRADESH

The Sop Target

To woo the electorate ahead of the February polls the Rajnath Government offers inducements but the response among voters is at best tepid

By Subhash Mishra

As Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Rajnath Singh holds several portfolios. But there is one that is not his, yet a lot of people in the state think he is a doing a great job with it. In Lucknow as well as in the other cities, he is now increasingly referred to as the ghoshana-nath mantri (minister for making announcements). The Election Commission announced the poll schedule for the assembly only in December, but preparations had begun months in advance, at least for the chief minister. In the past year, Rajnath has announced nearly 300 schemes. All or most of them aimed at the February showdown. His claims ranged from the historical, a 180-ft tall Bamiyan-style statue of Buddha, to the soppy, a statue of Madhavrao Scindia, senior Congress leader who died in a plane crash last year.

SCHEMING POLLS: Rajnath's proactive appeasement might yield electoral dividends

When Rajnath took over the reins in October 2000, the BJP was on its way downhill. The damages wreaked during the regime of an ailing Ram Prakash Gupta seemed irreversible. Rajnath did not waste time ruing his luck. He held talks with the various support groups like farmers, teachers, traders, labourers, even sportspersons at his residence and these "panchayats" were followed by a series of announcements: to each according to their vote strength. If primary school teachers were promised salaries in tune with the Fifth Pay Commission recommendations, the traders got excise concessions in more than 150 items. Another voluminous vote bank, the government employees, was given two more years of employment, the retirement age being increased to 60.

   STATE POLL

THE FRACTURED VERDICT

Party Positions In Assembly Election in 1996
(Total Seats: 425)

BJP 174 (32%)

SP

110 (22%)
BSP 67 (18%)
Congress 33 (8%)
Others 41 (18%)

Following the bifurcation of the state in 2000, 22 seats were shifted to Uttaranchal. This year, elections will be held for 403 seats.
Vote percentage in brackets

SOPS

> Salaries to teachers on a par with the Fifth Pay Panel recommendations;
Cost Rs 850 crore.
> Tax relief to traders on 150 items; Cost Rs 75 crore.
> Grants to panchayats; Cost Rs 75 crore.
> Hike in procurement prices; Cost Rs 350 crore.
> Govt staff retirement age relaxation; Cost Rs 50 crore.

The BJP's Thakur stalwart was a man in a hurry. He had a near impossible task to do and just about a year to do it in. Uttar Pradesh's caste equations came in handy. He tried to please all the castes all the time. Even the Brahmins were offered tax exemptions on janeu (sacred thread), rudraksh (sacred fruit) and khadaun (wooden sandals).

The most talked about among Rajnath's caste cards was the reservation within the reservation. He rushed through a quota for the Most Backward Castes (MBC) among the OBCs and the Scheduled Castes following the recommendations of the Hukum Singh Committee, which submitted its report within a month. With one stroke, Rajnath managed to breach the traditional bastions of main rivals Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), but ran into legal obstacles when the Supreme Court stayed the ordinance. However, the MBC quota still has the Opposition worried. The other backward castes, particularly Mulayam Singh's support group of the Yadavs, are not too happy at the smaller size of their reservation pie and the SP's muted protest against it. The Bahujans who constitute a major chunk of the MBC, on the other hand, are expected to shift their allegiance from the BSP and its newly anointed leader Mayawati to the BJP.

But reservations that are still to come into effect are not enough to recast the caste-dictated voting patterns. Throughout the year the chief minister addressed numerous caste conventions, a habit he has picked up after assuming the post of chief minister.

CASTING COUNT: Mulayam's OBC-Muslim strategy does not add up to a winning number in a four-cornered contest

The crucial Muslim vote bank was also courted assiduously, if a bit half-heartedly. Initially, Rajnath opposed a ban on SIMI (Students' Islamic Movement of India) and when the Centre banned the controversial group regardless, he called a panchayat of the Muslims and announced a Rs 1-crore grant for madarsas.

This tide of generosity is in stark contrast to the previous poll preparations presided over by the BJP renegade Kalyan Singh. "During the last Lok Sabha elections, Kalyan Singh had described the teachers and state staff as kaam chor (lazy) to sabotage the party's prospects," explains a senior official in chief minister's secretariat. Rajnath is busy making up.

Kalyan's departure, however, may have cost the party the support of the Lodhs. Also, the emergence of a regional outfit, the Apna Dal, has eroded BJP's other backward vote bank of the Kurmis, at least in pockets of eastern Uttar Pradesh. The MBC quota was aimed at carving out a new vote bank to compensate this loss.

CAGED IN: Rajnath's MBC ploy has hijacked Mayawati's Bahujan card

But caste is only one aspect of Rajnath's sop strategy. The farmers comprise the most numerous vote bank, if caste considerations can be set aside. Rajnath factored this in and organised meetings with the farmers and gram pradhans to announce a series of rebates on agricultural equipment.

An even more attractive inducement is the hike in procurement prices of sugar cane and paddy. To facilitate purchase of paddy crops at these bloated rates, he opened more than 1,500 centres. There is something for the rest of the rural voters too. The state Government has not only increased the budget of the panchayats, and their financial powers, but has also promised to construct "panchayat bhavans" all over the state.

The urban constituencies have not been forgotten. Rajnath has announced tax concessions to oblige the trading community. The appeasement is not merely financial. Rajnath has asked the state machinery to go slow on raids on the traders. As for the lower-income groups, he has announced insurance cover for labourers in the unorganised sector at the state's expense.

All this poll largess has taken a toll on the state exchequer. And the returns are not too certain. Even the chief minister does not sound too confident about the BJP's return to power. The sickly state finances and red tape in the state machinery make his promises ring hollow.

In the flurry of his innumerable promises, Rajnath has forgotten to keep many of them. He may have laid the foundation stone for the Bamiyan-type Buddha statue, but forgotten about the Scindia one. He can only hope the voters don't remember these when casting their all-important vote in February.

Index

[an error occurred while processing this directive]