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As Chief
Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Rajnath Singh holds several portfolios. But
there is one that is not his, yet a lot of people in the state think he
is a doing a great job with it. In Lucknow as well as in the other cities,
he is now increasingly referred to as the ghoshana-nath mantri (minister
for making announcements). The Election Commission announced the poll
schedule for the assembly only in December, but preparations had begun
months in advance, at least for the chief minister. In the past year,
Rajnath has announced nearly 300 schemes. All or most of them aimed at
the February showdown. His claims ranged from the historical, a 180-ft
tall Bamiyan-style statue of Buddha, to the soppy, a statue of Madhavrao
Scindia, senior Congress leader who died in a plane crash last year.
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SCHEMING POLLS: Rajnath's proactive appeasement
might yield electoral dividends
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When Rajnath took over the reins in October 2000, the BJP was on its
way downhill. The damages wreaked during the regime of an ailing Ram Prakash
Gupta seemed irreversible. Rajnath did not waste time ruing his luck.
He held talks with the various support groups like farmers, teachers,
traders, labourers, even sportspersons at his residence and these "panchayats"
were followed by a series of announcements: to each according to their
vote strength. If primary school teachers were promised salaries in tune
with the Fifth Pay Commission recommendations, the traders got excise
concessions in more than 150 items. Another voluminous vote bank, the
government employees, was given two more years of employment, the retirement
age being increased to 60.
| STATE
POLL |
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THE
FRACTURED VERDICT
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Party Positions In Assembly Election in 1996
(Total Seats: 425)
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| BJP |
174 (32%) |
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SP
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110 (22%) |
| BSP |
67 (18%) |
| Congress |
33 (8%) |
| Others |
41 (18%) |
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Following the bifurcation of the state in 2000, 22
seats were shifted to Uttaranchal. This year, elections
will be held for 403 seats.
Vote percentage in brackets
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SOPS |
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> Salaries
to teachers on a par with the Fifth Pay Panel recommendations;
Cost Rs 850 crore.
> Tax relief
to traders on 150 items; Cost Rs 75 crore.
> Grants to
panchayats; Cost Rs 75 crore.
> Hike in procurement
prices; Cost Rs 350 crore.
> Govt staff
retirement age relaxation; Cost Rs 50 crore.
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The BJP's Thakur stalwart was a man in a hurry. He had a near impossible
task to do and just about a year to do it in. Uttar Pradesh's caste equations
came in handy. He tried to please all the castes all the time. Even the
Brahmins were offered tax exemptions on janeu (sacred thread), rudraksh
(sacred fruit) and khadaun (wooden sandals).
The most talked about among Rajnath's caste cards was the reservation
within the reservation. He rushed through a quota for the Most Backward
Castes (MBC) among the OBCs and the Scheduled Castes following the recommendations
of the Hukum Singh Committee, which submitted its report within a month.
With one stroke, Rajnath managed to breach the traditional bastions of
main rivals Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), but ran
into legal obstacles when the Supreme Court stayed the ordinance. However,
the MBC quota still has the Opposition worried. The other backward castes,
particularly Mulayam Singh's support group of the Yadavs, are not too
happy at the smaller size of their reservation pie and the SP's muted
protest against it. The Bahujans who constitute a major chunk of the MBC,
on the other hand, are expected to shift their allegiance from the BSP
and its newly anointed leader Mayawati to the BJP.
But reservations that are still to come into effect are not enough to
recast the caste-dictated voting patterns. Throughout the year the chief
minister addressed numerous caste conventions, a habit he has picked up
after assuming the post of chief minister.
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CASTING COUNT: Mulayam's OBC-Muslim strategy
does not add up to a winning number in a four-cornered contest
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The crucial Muslim vote bank was also courted assiduously, if a bit half-heartedly.
Initially, Rajnath opposed a ban on SIMI (Students' Islamic Movement of
India) and when the Centre banned the controversial group regardless,
he called a panchayat of the Muslims and announced a Rs 1-crore grant
for madarsas.
This tide of generosity is in stark contrast to the previous poll preparations
presided over by the BJP renegade Kalyan Singh. "During the last
Lok Sabha elections, Kalyan Singh had described the teachers and state
staff as kaam chor (lazy) to sabotage the party's prospects," explains
a senior official in chief minister's secretariat. Rajnath is busy making
up.
Kalyan's departure, however, may have cost the party the support of the
Lodhs. Also, the emergence of a regional outfit, the Apna Dal, has eroded
BJP's other backward vote bank of the Kurmis, at least in pockets of eastern
Uttar Pradesh. The MBC quota was aimed at carving out a new vote bank
to compensate this loss.
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CAGED IN: Rajnath's MBC ploy has hijacked
Mayawati's Bahujan card
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But caste is only one aspect of Rajnath's sop strategy. The farmers comprise
the most numerous vote bank, if caste considerations can be set aside.
Rajnath factored this in and organised meetings with the farmers and gram
pradhans to announce a series of rebates on agricultural equipment.
An even more attractive inducement is the hike in procurement prices
of sugar cane and paddy. To facilitate purchase of paddy crops at these
bloated rates, he opened more than 1,500 centres. There is something for
the rest of the rural voters too. The state Government has not only increased
the budget of the panchayats, and their financial powers, but has also
promised to construct "panchayat bhavans" all over the state.
The urban constituencies have not been forgotten. Rajnath has announced
tax concessions to oblige the trading community. The appeasement is not
merely financial. Rajnath has asked the state machinery to go slow on
raids on the traders. As for the lower-income groups, he has announced
insurance cover for labourers in the unorganised sector at the state's
expense.
All this poll largess has taken a toll on the state exchequer. And the
returns are not too certain. Even the chief minister does not sound too
confident about the BJP's return to power. The sickly state finances and
red tape in the state machinery make his promises ring hollow.
In the flurry of his innumerable promises, Rajnath has forgotten to
keep many of them. He may have laid the foundation stone for the Bamiyan-type
Buddha statue, but forgotten about the Scindia one. He can only hope the
voters don't remember these when casting their all-important vote in February.
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