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OTHER STORIES RELATED TO COVER Guest Column: Mushahid Hussain Case Study: Darul Uloom Islamia Guest Column: Talat Masood Guest Column: B. Raman

For India, the litmus test would be how much the General alters Pakistan's hardline agenda on Kashmir. In his speech, Musharraf was clear where he stood but conceded that "no organisation will be allowed to indulge in terrorism in the name of Kashmir".

For many months, several advisers as well as western leaders have been telling Musharraf he must radically alter government policy on Kashmir and attempt to pursue a diplomatic, negotiated solution. Many believe that could carry serious risks. "I think there is going to be a major shift in the Kashmir policy," said Ijaz-ul-Haq, Zia's politician son who is known to have close contacts with the army. "The Taliban was not such an issue for Pakistan but Kashmir is something that has been a core issue for the past 55 years. But if there is a 180 degree turn and if he seems to be making a compromise on the issue then there could be problems."

AIMING FOR PEACE: How soon elections are held may depend on how quickly the military build-up on the borders are de-escalated.

As a precursor to the new strategy, the Government has established a Kashmir Committee to publicise Pakistan's case in the Kashmir dispute, to downplay the role of Pakistani fighters and to stress the indigenous side of the campaign. The group will be led by Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan, head of the Muslim Conference party in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. Khan, a veteran politician, is known to be opposed to the involvement of Pakistani fighters in the war.

Alongside the Kashmir policy shift comes a complicated political battle at home. The military regime knows it will not receive the next, much-needed IMF loan without a civilian government in place. Senior Pakistani officials say Musharraf is now so confident of his position that he intends to bring forward general elections which were due to be held in October last year and which will be the first since he seized power in a coup two years ago.

Unless the current military tension with India escalates into a conflict Musharraf is likely to announce an election date as early as July or August. An early poll would allow him to capitalise on his perceived support at home and the backing he has secured from western governments since he agreed to help America's war in Afghanistan. Although Musharraf, who made himself President last year, will not stand for election himself he needs either a national referendum or a vote in Parliament to endorse his coup and his position as president.

First though, he must convince India that his intentions are sincere. Delhi is clear that Musharraf must " walk the talk" before any demobilisation of Indian forces takes place on the Indo-Pak border. India has decided to maintain its diplomatic-military posture till Pakistan stops infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir and hands over the 20 terrorists named in the most wanted list that was handed over to Islamabad. Although the visiting US Secretary of State Colin Powell has called for a dialogue to ease the Indo-Pak diplomatic-military stand-off, India is keen that Musharraf demonstrates his intentions on the ground before it walks to the negotiating table.

The General may do so but at a pace that suits him domestically. If the push comes to shove he may hand over terrorists of so-called Indian origin in a move to ease the tension. Yet, for Musharraf, it is going to be a difficult trapeze act.

There is little doubt that Musharraf's vision for Pakistan holds out the tantalising prospect of a stable, moderate state. But it will take many months and deep, often painful, shifts in loyalties and thinking before it will be clear how much he has achieved.Till then Pakistan remains on the brink.