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When Army
Chief General S. Padamanbhan spoke of obliterating the nuclear attacker
with India's second strike capability last fortnight, Prime Minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee
and Defence Minister George Fernandes were visibly uncomfortable. But
the civilian and
the military leadership are clear about one thing: Pakistan President
General Pervez Musharraf must "walk the talk" before any demobilisation
of Indian forces takes place from the Indo-Pak border.
Although visiting US Secretary of State Colin Powell has called for a
dialogue to ease the diplomatic-military standoff between the two countries,
India is keen that Musharraf keeps to his word on the ground before any
dialogue can begin. The Pakistan president's widely publiced television
speech and the US advocacy were discussed threadbare by the Cabinet Committee
on Security in two consecutive meetings before Fernandes left for an official
visit to Pentagon. It was decided that India would maintain its diplomatic-military
posture till Pakistan stops infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir and hand
over the 20 terrorists named in the "most wanted" list that
Delhi submitted to Islamabad.
Notwithstanding Musharraf's intentions of bringing moderation into the
strife-torn Pakistani society, India wants to hold the Pakistan president
on his commitment to stop terrorist violence in Kashmir. It wants to know
whether terrorism in Kashmir includes Pakistan's support of "legitimate
freedom struggle"--- as reiterated by Musharraf in the National Kashmir
Committee meeting last week---and attack on combatant targets. A special
note has been taken of Prime Minister Sikander Hayat Khan's statement
that no terrorist activity would be allowed from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
(PoK). Musharraf's decision to drop the terms "freedom struggle"
from his speech also didn't go unnoticed.To that extent, India expressed
a cautious welcome to the steps taken by Pakistan against cross-border
terrorism.
For the moment, Delhi, it appears, has decided to adopt a "wait-and-watch
policy" given knows that there are forces within the Pakistani Army
which may be beyond Musharraf's control. The fire in Pakistan's interior
ministry, where documents reportedly relating to
banned terrorist groups were destroyed, indicates that there are divisions
within the Rawalpindi General Headquarters. Another cause of concern for
Delhi is Musharraf's propensity to shift stands under pressure, whether
it is from the international community or the fundamentalists within.
The aborted crackdown against jehadis last year, the Taliban turnaround
and the Kargil war show that the General is always ready for a tactical
turn to suit his long-term plans.
All this does not mean that India is not in a hurry to demobilise its
forces along the border. The deployment of forces here is costing the
Government dear. Besides, military training has almost come to a standstill
and army commanders are finding it difficult to keep their men charged.
While signs of a war may have receded to some extent after Musharraf's
speech, the commanders want to remain battle-ready for at least the next
three months. Even the pulling back of the second line that is involved
in supporting the operational forces stands has been ruled out. According
to intelligence reports, infiltration is still continuing from across
the borders.
Under the circumstances, the onus lies on Pakistan to take urgent steps
to stop the infiltration and hand over at least some of the terrorists
named in the list. Intelligence reports again indicate that underworld
dons Dawood Ibrahim and Chota Shakeel have been shifted out of the limelight
to the Baluchistan frontier while one of the Memon brothers has been packed
off to the Gulf. Similarly, Jaish-e-Mohammed supremo Maulana Masood Azhar
is comfortably ensconced in a guest house with telephone facilities while
Sikh terrorists have been lodged in a gurudwara and the IC 814 hijackers
are at large in Bahawalpur and Sindh. Home Minister L.K. Advani let Washington
know about these reports, hoping that Pakistan would act on them. But
Musharraf's speech remained adamant. But India is equally adamant. Unless
Pakistan ends its double-speak, there will no question of a dialogue between
the two countries.
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