The heightened concern over terrorism and security has stemmed the electoral decline of the BJP, if not its electoral partners. Compared to the Mood of the Nation poll of August 2001, there has been a swing of 1.8 per cent for the BJP alliance and against the Congress alliance. If the Congress' troubles with Jayalalithaa reach a point of no return, the main opposition party could be in even more serious trouble. The systematic gains it has made at the state level since 1999 are in danger of being nullified in a Lok Sabha poll. The Congress has slipped in Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Uttar Pradesh, the advances made over the past year have been virtually wiped out. Despite this, the party is holding the high ground in Karnataka and Haryana. In Punjab and Gujarat it remains ahead but not as conclusively as it did six months ago.

Ideally, the BJP should have expected a surge in Uttar Pradesh, in line with the national trend. However, the gains appear more modest and seem to be offset with corresponding gains for the Samajwadi Party. Of course, Lok Sabha voting preferences are not replicated at the assembly level and the future of the BJP in the state will depend on the residual support the Congress retains there.

As for the BJP's allies, the downturn witnessed in August 2001 continues. The Akali Dal has recovered some ground in Punjab-suggesting that the assembly poll may be a more closely fought exercise than what is conventional wisdom-but the unpopularity of O.P. Chautala's INLD continues. However, N. Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam has gained from the surge in its partner's fortunes. The only exception is the Telengana region where Chandra Shekhar Rao's Telengana Rashtriya Samiti is attracting support. In Tamil Nadu, the shifting alliances in the AIADMK camp seem likely to be advantageous to the DMK-BJP alliance.

Overall, the gains for the BJP and its allies are not commensurate with the larger change of the national agenda. The economy is a factor but leadership could be another.

Who would make the best prime minister?

A.B. Vajpayee 38	Sonia Gandhi 19
All figures in per cent. Rest: don't know/can't say.

Last year witnessed a strange situation of both Vajpayee and Sonia losing popularity and no third leader gaining in the prime ministerial stakes. The trend continues as far as Sonia is concerned but Vajpayee has been able to arrest his own decline marginally. It is, however, clear that Vajpayee hasn't been a substantial benificiary of an ideological shift. Today, unlike 1998 and 1999, his popularity does not exceed support for the NDA. As for Sonia, she hasn't even equalled the Congress' popularity.

Rate the performance of the PM

In terms of performance, this has been a good six months for the prime minister. Adding those who pronounced his performance as good and outstanding, Vajpayee now has an approval rating of a staggering 47 per cent, compared to 40 per cent in both August and January of last year. By any reckoning, this is an enviable record and suggests the Government's handling of events since September 11 has met with popular approval. So, what should worry Vajpayee and his colleagues is: why doesn't this popular endorsement translate into electoral support? Is it a case of trust failing the conversion to charisma?

Who is the best leader for NDA if Vajpayee is replaced?

	All	BJP+voters
Lak Krishna Advani	30 (26)	38 (34)
M.M. Joshi	04 (4)	5 (4)
Jaswant Singh	05 (4)	5 (4)
Chandrababu Naidu	03 (4)	2 (4)
Sushma Swaraj	04 (4)	2 (4)
Figures in per cent. Rating of Aug 2001 in brackets

Who is the best leader for Congress if Sonia is replaced?

	All	Congress+voters
Priyanak Gandhi	25 (23)	27 (27)
Manmohan Singh	12 (11)	11 (10)
Rahul Gandhi	11 (9)	12 (10)
Arjun Singh	03 (2)	3 (2)
Pranab Mukherjee	02 (2)	2 (2)
Figures in per cent. Rating of Aug 2001 in brackets

In a country where incumbency doesn't always count as a disadvantage, identifying possible successors is always tricky. In the August 2001 poll, L.K. Advani was perceived as a clear successor to Vajpayee in the NDA by 26 per cent of the respondents. This time too Advani leads the pack but with a difference-he is being more clearly identified as a successor with his rating going up by 4 per cent. In the Congress too, Priyanka Gandhi holds the dynastic candle and her ratings have gone up by 2 per cent. Ironically, the Congress chief ministers don't get a look in.

Which issue are you most concerned about?

In the past two years, the quality of life has ...

Except in times of exceptional distress, economics doesn't influence political choice too much. Yet, when there is a perceived economic downturn, the effects rub off on politics. Last August, a larger number of people felt the quality of their lives had worsened. This time, the gap between those who think they are better off and those who believe they are worse off has narrowed. It would have narrowed further but for a clear thumbs down from Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In the past, only the so-called bimaru states reflected gloom. The Government may, however, be heartened from early indications of a feel good factor returning to Uttar Pradesh. It may also read a message from the fact that it is the 18-24 year-olds who steadfastly believe in a more rosy future.