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OTHER STORIES RELATED TO COVER India Today—ORG-Marg Opinion Poll

The storm clouds have been visible on the horizon for at least six months. The India Today-ORG-MARG Mood of the Nation poll in August last year detected the craving for a strong and decisive leader-in the mould of Indira Gandhi. This yearning for robust nationhood was coupled with a growing dissatisfaction with the leadership and Government of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

DRAMATIC COMEBACK: There is a surge in support of the demand for a Ram temple

In the aftermath of the September 11 outrage in the US and the attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, these trends are beginning to crystallise. Gone is the residual willingness-still visible after the failure of the Agra summit last July-to have another shy at Indo-Pakistani friendship. Totally absent is any willingness to blend anti-terrorism with the niceties of civil liberties. Instead, after a decade, 2002 is witnessing the return of Hindu militancy.

Unlike 1990-92 when Hindu assertiveness found a voice in the BJP and RSS affiliates such as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), the new stridency lacks a clear political focus. Between the Mood of the Nation poll in January 2001 and the present exercise, there has been a dramatic surge in support for the VHP demand to begin construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. A year ago, only 20 per cent favoured this drastic and potentially divisive step. Today, that number has shot up to 43 per cent. Among Hindus it is 48 per cent.

CALL TO ARMS: The largest number want military action against Pakistan

AP PHOTO/RAFIQ MAQBOOL

The hardening of positions is visible in the Hindi heartland and western India. In Gujarat, support for immediate temple building has risen from 26 per cent to 73 per cent, in Rajasthan from 23 per cent to 60 per cent, in Maharashtra from 28 per cent to 51 per cent and in urban Delhi from 10 per cent to 40 per cent. Even outside the Hindi heartland, a Hindu stridency is visible: in Orissa, the temple-now constituency has grown from 21 per cent to 41 per cent and in Andhra Pradesh from 30 per cent to 39 per cent.

There seems to be a definite convergence between support for temple building in Ayodhya and endorsement of the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO)-the subject of acrimonious debate prior to December 13. There is an overwhelming support for POTO in those states where the Ayodhya agitation strikes a chord. However, if Ayodhya has more support among the young and the less educated, POTO seems to represent the national consensus. There is significant opposition-25 per cent-to POTO only in Kerala.

Since Ayodhya and POTO are issues strongly identified with the BJP, a natural outcome would have been a surge in support for the party. Curiously, that hasn't happened. True, the BJP and its allies have recovered considerable lost ground since August last year. Today, there is no danger of the Congress overtaking the BJP as the single-largest party or even depriving the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of its parliamentary majority. For the first time in a year, the BJP has also overtaken the Congress as the party best equipped to tackle national issues-a significant political achievement.

However, given the magnitude of the emotional churning among the Hindus, the BJP's gains seem relatively modest. In a similar situation prior to the 1971 Bangladesh War, Indira Gandhi managed a greater degree of political consolidation.

One possible reason for this unfocused belligerence seems to be the leadership of the prime minister. While his performance rating has improved dramatically over the past six months, and even more markedly over a year, this has not translated into an automatic endorsement of his leadership. Immediately prior to the 1998 general election, Vajpayee was the preferred prime ministerial choice of 59 per cent of the respondents; in the aftermath of the Kargil war, in October 1999, he still enjoyed a staggering 50 per cent support.

Since the 1999 election, the prime minister's appeal has been waning steadily. In January 2001, his support went down to 43 per cent and came down further to 37 per cent in August 2001. The recent crisis has helped reverse the trend but only by 1 per cent. Today, Vajpayee can no longer be said to be taller than the NDA he heads. He has been reduced to the first among equals. His comfort level stems from the fact that support for Leader of the Opposition Sonia Gandhi has slipped even more sharply-from 28 per cent in January 2001 to 19 per cent now. In a moment of crisis, Vajpayee seems clearly more trusted than she is.

For the past three years, Vajpayee has attempted a deft balancing act. He has played the difficult role of consensus builder, without simultaneously offending the faithful. He has been dove and hawk at the same time-both responding to events and taking the initiative. Unfortunately for him, the time for tightrope walking seems to be running out. The sudden onrush of Hindu belligerence-an impulse he has traditionally been out of sync with- could leave him with little room for manoeuvre. The BJP's core constituency is turning increasingly restive, vocal and very militant. In the next few months, Vajpayee has to either ride the crest or swim against the tide. He has coped with Islamist terrorism but what happens when there is an equally fierce Hindu backlash?