NEW STRATEGIES: Amarinder battles his way past rivals and rebels

Cutting through the cold north Indian sky in a four-seater helicopter, Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee chief Amarinder Singh points out the fortresses dotting the Malwa landscape below. Once part of the Patiala state founded and ruled by his ancestors, they were key defences in the battles against Afghan raider Ahmed Shah Abdali.

Two centuries and 12 generations later, Amarinder is fighting a different kind of battle-he's leading the Congress charge for Punjab. In 1997, the Congress lost the state to the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine, its strength dropping to 14 in the 117-member Assembly. Now Amarinder hopes for a thumping victory. The former captain in the Indian Army has his strategy ready: "A soldier has to outmanoeuvre his enemy by being one step ahead. And that is exactly what I am trying to do."

RALLYING SUPPORT: Badal has pinned his hopes on the rural vote bank

Vajpayee and Advani's rallies in cities with high Hindu vote concentrations have not gathered much steam. The absence of the SAD-BJP synergy hasn't helped.

But military strategies, the state Congress chief is realising, are of little help in fighting elections. For the adversary Amarinder is pitted against is no pushover. He is SAD supremo and Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, veteran of many an electoral battle. Despite a fractured leg, Badal, the first Akali chief minister to complete a five-year term, is doggedly defending his turf. He doesn't underplay the challenge he faces. "It's a tough election, but the voters' mood on the last days will be crucial," says Badal, sitting in a specially fabricated vehicle that has been his second home since January 8, the day he hit the campaign trail.

Spoilers

CUTTING INTO THE PIE In a closely contested battle, the Panthic Morcha and the BSP could hold the votes that swing the mandate When the Panthic Morcha and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) struck up a pre-poll tie up in Punjab, it was touted as a "third front" in the making, one that would hurt both the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal and the Congress. But the marriage of convenience broke up over seat-sharing even before the assembly elections. While the "third force" has come a cropper, the Morcha and the bsp, as potential spoilers, are making the main contestants jittery. While the Morcha threatens to dent SAD's Akali vote bank, the BSP may cut into the 27 per cent Dalit vote that the Congress is desperate to win to form the government. Though the two parties, as marginal players, may get only a slice of the votes, the close fight between the SAD and the Congress has increased their damage potential. CRUCIAL VOTES: Tohra campaigning with his new-found friends The Morcha, comprising four splinter Akali factions and the Sant Samaj-a grouping of Sikh seminaries-and spearheaded by stalwart Gurcharan Singh Tohra and radical Simranjit Singh Mann, has entered the fray not to win power but to defeat its sworn foe, SAD supremo Parkash Singh Badal. Portraying Badal as "anti-Panth" is the centrepiece of its strategy to undermine his support base among the Sikh voters. The Morcha's real stakes are in the SGPC elections, six months away. A SAD defeat in the assembly polls will change the balance of Akali religio-political power. As Morcha leader Prem Singh Chandumajra says, "We have nothing to lose." Neither does the BSP. Its vote share has eroded substantially over the years-from 16 per cent in 1992 to 7 per cent in 1997, when the party won only one seat. Maybe that's why BSP chief Kanshi Ram has spread himself too thin, contesting 110 seats out of 117 segments, though Dalit votes are an issue only in 28-odd seats. Still, in a mixed mandate, with just a few MLAs in their kitty, the Morcha and the BSP could end up with a bargaining chip that could mean the difference between a SAD or a Congress' government.

Nothing betrays the desperation of the two main rivals like their no-holds-barred, barb-laden ad blitzkrieg in the vernacular newspapers, never before seen in Punjab's electoral history. The war of allegations spilled out into court, when Badal's heir apparent, MP Sukhbir Singh Badal, slapped a criminal defamation suit against Amarinder.

With the Congress' comeback euphoria tempered by in-fighting over tickets and the ruling combine getting anti-incumbency jitters, even poll pundits are hedging their bets. Though the elections are just a few days away, there is still no clear winner. Barring a last minute swing, Punjab could well be heading for a very close finish-an oddity in a state where the people have voted decisively, alternately showing the door to the Akalis and the Congress in the previous eight assembly elections.

Victory in the Punjab polls hinges on the voting choice of the Sikh peasantry, which comprises 50 per cent of the electorate and is a decisive factor in at least 70 seats in rural areas. This is Amarinder's litmus test: will he be able to bring round the peasantry, the only section of voters still enamoured of Badal's carefully cultivated pro-farmer credentials? By striking a more-populist-than-you pitch, the Congress has tried to beat Badal at his own game. The party has announced a dole-for-all manifesto, promising sops amounting to Rs 1,200 crore. This despite the fact that the state already has a debt burden of Rs 36,000 crore. SAD, past master in the sops game, has unveiled yet more populist measures.

Badal believes that the "Akali constituency" of the predominantly rural vote bank is "intact". But the Hindu voters-who make up 36 per cent of the electorate and are a decisive factor in at least 36 seats-are cause for worry. The view that SAD pampered its rural constituency at the cost of the urbanites, traders and industry runs deep. "The urban voter is in a punishing mood for being taken for granted," says respected trading community leader Tulsi Dass Jaitwani, president, Punjab Beopar Mandal. The BJP's loss will be the Congress' gain.

BJP is banking on national leaders, particularly Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Union Home Minister

L.K. Advani to bring in the votes in cities with high Hindu vote concentration, but their rallies have not gathered much steam. Certainly, the absence of the SAD-BJP synergy, so obvious in the 1997 elections, hasn't helped. The combine has not even announced a common post-election agenda. It's not surprising that a senior Akali leader says, "This time, the BJP will be more of a liability for SAD."

Furious in-fighting for tickets has fuelled rebellions in each party that may turn seat arithmetic askew. The Congress, despite being buoyed by the swing of Hindu and Dalit vote banks, is still labouring to reach the magic figure of 59 seats because it has been riven by factionalism. Former chief minister Rajinder Kaur Bhattal and MP Jagmeet Singh Brar are backing their own horses. Bhattal has even challenged the projection of Amarinder as leader of the Congress legislative party. No wonder political observers predict that smaller groups will be crucial players in the formation of the next government.