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The gentle clipping of Kalraj's wings has meant the strengthening of Rajnath, the human basket into which the BJP has put all its eggs. The campaign itself is a bit of a cat-and-mouse game with Rajnath trying to provoke Mulayam. The chief minister has accused the SP of funding its campaign with "foreign money", implying a Pakistani link, and asked Mulayam to clarify if he wants the Babri masjid rebuilt.

EYEING THE FUTURE: Both BJP and BSP are hoping Mayawati's BSP will split

Mulayam has kept his mouth shut and has run a very organised campaign.

Mulayam has kept his mouth shut, refusing to say anything remotely controversial. Asked pointedly about Ayodhya, he said, "There are other important issues to bother about." Mulayam has run a very organised campaign with, whispers suggest, solid backing from two very large business groups. His district offices are remarkably media-savvy, ready with CVs of candidates. He was also the first to announce his list of nominees: while OBCs (148) and Muslims (69) constitute the bulk of the SP's candidates, there are 89 upper caste members too.

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METHODOLOGY The Aaj Tak-C-Voter Poll covered 97 assembly segments in Uttar Pradesh, 28 in Punjab and 18 in Uttaranchal. A total of 18,474 eligible voters were contacted in Uttar Pradesh, 4,509 in Punjab and 2,273 in Uttaranchal between January 29 and February 4. Voting preferences were studied at the regional macro level and the shifts were applied at the constituency level using the C-Voter psephometer software. A separate sampling was undertaken for constituencies where the margins were extremely narrow. The margin of error is 3 per cent at the state level.

Concluding that the BJP's Brahmin vote may be worried by the "Thakurisation" under Rajnath, even the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a decidedly Dalit entity, has put up 92 upper caste candidates. While Mulayam has avoided attacking the Congress, the Congress itself has been fairly sharp in criticising him. It senses that, like the Brahmin vote, the Muslim vote too may not be a foregone conclusion.

For Mulayam, who has built the SP into the strongest non-BJP force with a single-handed and singleminded effort, this election is an enormous sociological experiment. He has been out of the chief minister's office since 1995. While he became defence minister in the United Front government (1996-97), his heart has always been in Uttar Pradesh. Like Rajnath, he has sought to expand his party's social base. While Rajnath has done this by presenting himself as a "doer" almost above the BJP-and by bringing in turncoat specialist Ajit Singh for the Jat vote in western Uttar Pradesh-Mulayam has focused on the upper castes to supplement his traditional Muslim-Yadav constituency.

Amar Singh, the SP general secretary, courted the Thakurs, though Rajnath may just have beaten him at that game. The Baniyas were wooed with Samajwadi populism, Mulayam matching Rajnath sop for sop. The Brahmins are, of course, the other special interest group. Finally, Mulayam presumes he is the natural repository of the undecided urban middle-class vote, given its anger with the under-performing Government. As the poll indicates, 116 seats are in the "danger zone" and are still up for grabs. This is where the cow belt will be won and lost.

The BJP's calculation is that the anti-incumbency vote will be split among its rivals, allowing it to inch ahead. As the ruling party, it is certainly getting the most publicity-but elections are not usually won by press releases.

Of course other means are being deployed too. The SP has bought time in all the 850 movie theatres in the state, screening a short film on a child who refuses to come out of its mother's womb because it doesn't want to live in BJP raj. The BJP has retrofitted nine video raths, displaying a message by movie star Mukesh Khanna and culminating with a shot of Rajnath firing an arrow.

The BSP, as usual, has been quiet but determined. As one district magistrate points out, "It spent three months from October doing nothing but ensuring all its voters got their electoral id cards." This time at least one photo id is mandatory at the polling booth; and the BSP realises its voters are not the sort to flash credit cards.

It's almost comical that all the positioning and posturing are actually intended for post-poll bargaining. A hung assembly is a given. The Congress hopes to get anything between 25 and 35 seats and bargain its way into an alliance with Mulayam. There is already talk in some circles of Pramod Tiwari becoming deputy chief minister. The BJP, from virtually the chief minister downwards, admits it has helped 20-25 people "buy" BSP tickets but pleads that "Amar Singh has done the same for the SP". The hope is that this segment will split from the mother BSP and help its benefactor form a government.

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The opinion poll indicates as many as 116 seats are in the "danger zone" and still up for grabs. This is where the cow belt is likely to be won and lost.

More sophisticated punditry argues the BSP will split only if the BJP and its allies get 170 seats or more-a highly unlikely occurrence, the poll suggests. If Rajnath and company peak at 140 or less, the BSP may be better served with negotiating en bloc and demanding the chief minister's job for Mayawati.

If it all sounds confusing, imagine the plight of the hapless Uttar Pradesh voter; and of the land he calls home. In the state secretariat in Lucknow, every bureaucrat you can spot has stopped working and is busy speculating on the elections, making references to the 1967 results, drawing inferences from the 1974 verdict, almost salivating at the thought of elections. It takes one such hyper(in)active IAS officer to sum up the state of Uttar Pradesh, "The outgoing Government has left us five years away from Bihar." Chances are the next government will strive to bridge the gap.