ROUGH RIDE: Faced with tough electioneering BJP's Phonia has declared it his last bid

Kedar Singh Phonia has not worked harder in his life. Uttaranchal's 71-year-old tourism minister is seeking his fourth election from Badrinath. But it shall be his last-he cannot endure the thought of campaigning for yet another election. This time round he has been forced to ride a horse to reach the voters. "In the past three elections, I have campaigned only on roads and people from nearby villages would come to the nearest road-head. But this time they expect the candidates to go to their doorsteps," he says.

A.P. Maikhuri, Phonia's rival from the Congress, is faring no better. His legs are swollen from trekking around 40 km every day. "He eats with the villagers and even sleeps in remote villages," claims his campaign manager Gulam Rasool.

This is just one fallout of the statehood granted to Uttaranchal. The newly formed state has been divided into 70 assembly constituencies with an average of 60,000 voters. The constituencies are so small that each consists of merely two blocks and a few towns, forcing the candidates to trek long distances to reach the electorate. This is the reason, says an observer, "why most candidates are young and physically strong". Not only did the statehood trigger aspirations regarding employment and development, but the mass movement for separate statehood had created many leaders. With practically every leader worth the following eyeing the assembly elections to further his political career, there are at least 15 candidates in each constituency. And those who were not nominated by the BJP or the Congress are contesting as rebels, at least one in each constituency.

All figures in per cent. Rest: others/don't know/ can't say

The forthcoming elections have also spawned a number of regional parties like the Uttaranchal Janwadi Party founded by outgoing MLA from Chakrata, Munna Singh Chauhan, the Uttaranchal Lok Vahini by P.C. Tiwari, a journalist, and the Uttaranchal Janvikas Party by S.S. Pangti, a retired bureaucrat. An initial bid by some of these parties to form a front with the CPI (M) and CPI (Ml) to take on the national parties failed after Kashi Singh Airi's Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) put up its candidates for the seats allotted to the allies.

Initially things did not go smoothly for the Congress either. Top leader and former Union minister Satpal Maharaj resigned over the selection of candidates, relenting only after five party candidates were replaced with his nominees, including his wife Amrita Rawat. There are, however, nearly two dozen Congress rebels in the fray. "Had it not been for this infighting, the Congress would have easily defeated the BJP," says Suryakant Dhasmana, a Congress leader who resigned after being denied a ticket.

The developments in the Congress have resulted in a windfall for the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) with at least half-a-dozen Congress rebels like Dhasmana, Surendra Singh Negi, Sudarshan Kathait, Shamsher Singh Sajwan and Balbir Singh Negi now contesting under its banner. Former Congress minister Shivanand Nautiyal, who was denied a ticket, is fighting as an independent candidate against Maharaj's wife from Birokhal in Pauri district.

A divided opposition should have been good news for the BJP but it too has been plagued with dissent. Almost two dozen BJP leaders were expelled last week for contesting against the party's official candidates. The party has, however, devised a strategy to minimise the damage. It is holding meetings with star campaigners L.K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj, M.M. Joshi, Uma Bharati and Pramod Mahajan in the rebel-affected areas. In Rishikesh, three BJP rebels are contesting against the official candidate, while in Dehradun two rebels are contesting against former chief minister Nityanand Swami.

Uttaranchal has been the BJP domain since 1991 but the party was deprived of all emotive issues once statehood was granted in 2000. With smaller assembly constituencies, the focus now is on development matters like roads, water and jobs. This is why a large number of the BJP and Congress candidates have framed individual manifestoes to address local problems. In a virtually issueless poll, it's the regional parties that are likely to play a crucial role if neither the Congress nor the BJP gets a clear majority. The BJP, however, may still spring a surprise in the last phase of electioneering.