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 CURRENT
ISSUE FEB 18, 2002 |
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COVER STORY: UTTAR PRADESH
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| Flux
and Fortune |
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Central to the electoral gamble in Uttar Pradesh
is the shifting of vote-banks. Barring the BSP, the traditional bases
of most political parties are not intact.
By Lakshmi
Iyer
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At Saurpur Kalan
village, just outside Baghpat—the Lok Sabha constituency of Union Agriculture
Minister Ajit Singh—a group of Jat farmers are immersed in a game of
cards under the winter sun, sharing a hookah. A jeep pulls up. Two turbaned,
well-dressed men—Chowdhury Naval Singh and Dalip Singh—step out.
The Singhs are visitors from across the state boundary. They are office-bearers
of Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal
and have been scouring the western UP countryside for fellow Jats to woo
them away from Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).
The visitors, pleased with the chance encounter with an audience in Ajit
Singh's own backyard, instantly embark on proselytising them. "Do you
know why Haryana is properous and the neighbouring region backward?"
they ask. "Eastern Uttar Pradesh is taking away your wealth. If you
vote for the INLD candidate, Chautala will make your region as prosperous
as Haryana."
The local Jats refuse to bite the bait . "We are poor because we are
a big state," says local school teacher Satyavir Singh. The audience
also does not approve of outsider Chautala's attempt to upstage Ajit Singh.
"Why are you opposing the BJP now? Just because Ajit Singh is a minister
in the Government?" poses Ravinder Singh. The visitors squirm and make
a quick exit.
In the encounter between the Uttar Pradesh and Haryanvi jats lies the battle
for Jat supremacy between Ajit Singh and Chautala. Desperate to enlarge
his acceptance beyond his state—and probably get a national party status
for the INLD—Chautala has fielded candidates in all the 105 assembly
constituencies in western Uttar Pradesh. He is even tipped to open his account
in the state assembly with two seats—Hastinapur in Meerut and Deoband
in Saharunpur—from where he has fielded sitting BJP MLAs who failed
to get party tickets.
Ajit Singh, in alliance with the BJP, is contesting 37 seats. Chautala is
no threat to him. To Uttar Pradesh Jats, he remains their undisputed leader.
He has promised them a separate Jat state—Harit Pradesh. In any case,
the Jats vote for Ajit Singh not for what he offers them, but for what he
is: Chaudhury Charan Singh's son.
The tug-of-war is happening only on the sidelines of the ballot battle in
western Uttar Pradesh. Central to the electoral gamble is the shifting of
vote-banks. Barring the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the traditional support
base of most political parties is not intact. All the caste Hindus are not
rallying behind the BJP. Neither are Jats putting all their eggs in Ajit
SIngh's baskets. Muslims are also not blindly voting for the Samajwadi Party.
They are willing to try out the Congress and even the Kalyan Singh-led Rashtriya
Kranti Party in Aligarh. Certain sections of the upper castes don't mind
voting for the BSP too.
What has contributed to this flux in vote banks? Alienation of traditional
voters, new electoral alliances like the RLD-BJP tie-up and fielding of
candidates outside the sectoral support base by parties such as the BSP,
the SP and the RKP have skewed poll arithmetic in the region. For instance,
Ajit SIngh's problem has less to do with Chautala and more with his alliance
with the BJP. It is for the first time that he is contesting elections with
the BJP and that tie-up has alienated his Muslim-support base. The BJP is
also not sure if it would be able to entirely transfer its caste Hindu votes
to the RLD candidates. In Muslim-majority Kithaur, for example, the RLD-BJP
candidate is Pervez Alim. The Hindus have a problem voting for him. "We
will vote for the BSP's Kedarnath Singh. Some may vote even for Congress
candidate Santosh Sinaha. Both of them are Gujjars," says shopkeeper
Ashok Bansal. Muslims have no hesitation in backing the sitting RLD MLA.
But should some of them have, they may plum for the SP's Shahid Manzoor.
The party that is tipped to benefit from such hitches in transferring votes
is the BSP. Early signs of this was available last year when the party wrested
Siwal Khas (SC) from the RLD in a by-election. This time round, the BSP
has fielded candidates from upper castes, Jats and Muslims to tap those
put off by the BJP-INLD alliance.
Ravinder who scared the Haryanvis away is not voting for the RLD. His vote
is for BSP candidate Saheb Singh who is also a Jat. Why is the Ajit Singh
backer not voting for him? The RLD candidate is sitting MLA Kaukab Ahmed.
"I don't want to vote for a Muslim," he says.
Similarly, Mohd Haroon Siddiqui in Baghpat, who has been voting for the
RLD, refuses to ote for the party's Muslim candidate fourth time. "The
RLD has tied up with the BJP and I am not comfortable with this idea. The
BSP has fielded a good candidate. Besides, the party has fielded more Muslim
candidates than any other political party in the state." The BSP's
eventual alliance with the BJP to form a government does not bother him
either. "We are grateful to Mayawati for making Baghpat a district.
Otherwise we had to travel to Meerut for revenue work."
The BSP's candidates in Baghpat and Chaprauli---an undertrial Rajpal Singh
currently lodged in Meerut jail—are bad news for Ajit Singh. Rajpal,
a former BSF jawan-turned Robinhood, is posing a stiff challenge to him
in prestigious Chaprauli. He belongs to the backward Nai caste and hopes
to gain from splitting the Jats among six candidates belonging to that community.
The district-status for Baghpat has won the BSP support even from the trading
Vaish community. The Vaishs, traditional supporters of the BJP, are dismayed
with the party through out western Uttar Pradesh. Small-scale units in Barot
that fall in Baghpat have hoisted BSP party flags. "Mayawati ko kya
dekhna hai. Pratyashi ko dekhna hai (Why should we see Mayawati; we should
consider the candidate)," says foundry-owner Pradyumna Jain. He feels
the traders could either vote for the BSP or the SP .
It is not just the SP and the BSP which have tapped Vaish disillusionment
with the BJP, the RKP too has picked up their support in places like Bulandshahar.
In this constituency, the RKP has fielded Sanjeev Aggarwal, a Vaish. With
Aggarwal, Kalyan hopes to shift both Vaish and his own Lodha-Rajput (LR)
votes away from the BJP in Bulandshar and Aligarh.
The LRs matter in five of the seven assembly seats in the districts. In
the 1996 elections, all the five seats had gone to the BJP. Once core Hindutva
supporters, the LRs are determined to avenge the insult the BJP meted out
to Kalyan. They are now prepared to vote for a Muslim candidate, Mujaheed
Guddu whom the RKP has fielded in Gangeri. "We want to give a message
to the BJP. It is Kalyan Singh who brought it to power and it should know
that," says Anand Saroop in Bulandshahr. The caste bonding is so strong
among the LRs that threats are being issued to those from the community
who have dared to campaign for the BJP. While Sakshi Maharaj's meeting was
stoned, Union Minister Uma Bharati tactfully refused to speak a word against
Kalyan in Aligarh. She even refused to stop by Atrauli from where the RKP
leader is seeking a re-election. Kalyan's BJP rival in his second seat—Divai
in Bulandshahar—has asked senior party leaders, including Chief Minister
Rajnath Singh, not to hold any meeting in his constituency.
Kalyan has not just been consolidating his LR base. He has tried to woo
the Muslims too. "He has almost apologised for destroying the Babri
Masjid. In Divoi and Gangeri assembly segments, he has helped Muslims become
chairmen of nagar panchayats," points out entrepreneur Javed Syed in
Aligarh.
While the other parties have made plans to add to their vote-base, the BJP
and the Congress have made no effort to lure new voters. The BJP has struck
to its timeworn formula of polarising Hindu votes or benefiting from a split
in Muslim votes. For instance in Meerut City, sitting MLA Laxmikant Vajpayee
hopes to win because he is facing three Muslim candidates. The Congress
appears to be in contest in Aligarh where the Muslim community leaders have
decided to back its candidate Vivek Bansal. To help Bansal win, the community
has also asked its Jama Masjid mufti to steer clear of endorsing any candidate.
"We are basically not happy with the kind of Muslim candidates that
the SP, BSP and the INLD have fielded. We are enamoured by Mulayam. We don't
want that kind of leader who will isolate us," says lock-maker Naseem
Akhtar. Prof Naseem Beg, president of the Aligarh Muslim University Staff
Association, feels Mulayam's politics has not done the party much good though.
"We want to be involved in the national mainstream. The SP is basically
a regional party with no larger vision," he says. With such shifts
in thinking, the Uttar Pradesh election results are certain to throw up
an interesting cocktail.
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