The Russian deputy prime minister Ilya Klebanov and Foreign Minister Ivan Ivanov have just visited Delhi. Defence collaboration is all set to expand hugely, perhaps a bit too hugely. These visits have also revived talk of an India-China-Russia relationship. It was the then Russian premier E. Primakov who first floated the idea of such a "strategic triangle" during his trip to India in December 1998.

The Russians are very keen on teaming up on the triangle as a counterweight to America, a feeling shared by the Chinese as well who are worried by the growing US presence in South and Central Asia. The Chinese also feel that they could use the Russians to "soften" India in relation to Sino-Indian differences. There are many in this country too who instinctively warm up to a triangular alliance to make the world less dependent on Washington.

Before 1980, both India and China aligned their economies closely with that of the USSR. The remnants of that dependence are still very much there. Sixty per cent of Russia's military sales are to India and China. And, of course, the three countries are in close geographical proximity with each other. All this makes for a cozy threesome. But realities have changed and the three countries are basically competitive, not complementary economies.

China's growth has been stunning since 1980 and this was achieved by abandoning Mao-era policies completely. India too has moved steadily forward. But Russia has been decimated. If real (inflation-adjusted) GDP in 1990 was set at 100, Russia's real GDP in 1999 was down steeply to around 60, whereas China's zoomed to about 244 and India's to around 164. In 2000 and 2001, Russia's growth recovered but that was almost entirely due to increased oil prices and the 1999 devaluation. Sharp regional disparities have emerged in all three countries and this is an important area where the trio could have a dialogue.

Russia is also in demographic decline. Its population is estimated to fall by some 10 million to about 135 million by 2015. The trend will continue thereafter. China and India, on the other hand, will see their numbers swell even further. This has strategic implications, particularly in resource-rich Siberia in Russia's far east. Russian anxieties are deepening with Chinese influx into the region, something that has also got the Japanese worried. Russia too is worried about China's growing influence in Mongolia and in Central Asia.

Islamist terrorism is a prime area for a coordinated strategy. The six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) comprising Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan was formally launched in July 2001. It has decided to set up a counter-terrorism centre in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Pakistan has been keen to join the group but this has been vetoed by Russia and other Central Asian members since it is seen as the main champion of religious extremism. China remains silent on the issue. India has not taken the SCO seriously so far. How the SCO will evolve now that the US also has a long-term presence in the region remains to be seen.

Energy could be a second area of three-way cooperation. Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, is rich in oil and gas. China has already made major investments in Kazakhstan and some years ago there was talk of a Turkmenistan-India gas pipeline. With growing bonhomie between Russia and the US following the cataclysmic events of September 11 last year, Russian and American cooperation in the exploitation of Central Asian energy resources is bound to increase.

Noted foreign policy scholar Kanti Bajpai of Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University feels that as pivotal states, India, China and Russia can also combine to develop a security system spanning the entire Asian continent. The radical rethinking on missile defence in the US also forces the three nations to act in close concert with each other not to counter the US but to ensure that the responses of each does not have adverse reactions on the others.

Pursuing areas of common interest is worthwhile. But a triangle to take on America is just not in our national interest. We have to be careful that the triangle is not perceived as and does not become an "axis". More than trilateralism, what is needed is deepening bilateralism. We have major differences with China but that should not deter us from forging closer political, economic and cultural Sino-Indian links. For most of the 1990s, India and Russia ignored each other. Fortunately, both realise closer ties with each other and closer ties individually with the West are not mutually exclusive.

Foreign policy is all about geoeconomics and geopolitics, not of geometry. It is also not about geology, given the prime minister's idea of India and the US as "natural allies". Hopefully, this will shape our worldview as we construct new partnerships with America, Russia and China.

(The author is with the Congress party. These are his personal views)