HIGH STAKES: Malik with Rajnath on his campaign trail

Elections, a British writer once observed, is something Indians do well. It is also something we've begun doing far too frequently. But when the country's most populous state is involved, an election assumes a larger significance. Later this month, we will witness elections in one of the country's richest states and one of its poorest. The scenarios couldn't be more different: Punjab has shrugged off the memory of insurgency with ebullience; Uttar Pradesh remains a madhouse of caste, criminality and lax governance.

With its huge electorate of 9.8 crore, 1.16 lakh polling booths and triangular and quadrangular contests, Uttar Pradesh is a political tinderbox. A few thousand votes can alter the fortunes of candidates and parties. Trying to identify trends in the tumult is treacherous. In this issue we have used the poll commissioned by the Aaj Tak channel (a part of the India Today Group) and conducted by C-Voter to anticipate the outcome. The results are crucial because they will influence politics both in Lucknow and Delhi: victory for Rajnath Singh will strengthen the Government at the Centre while his defeat would shift the focus to the next Lok Sabha polls due in 2004.

Five correspondents travelled across the states which go to the polls. Special Correspondent Ramesh Vinayak journeyed through Punjab as Associate Editor Ashok Malik, Special Correspondent Lakshmi Iyer and Principal Correspondent Subhash Mishra covered ground in different regions of Uttar Pradesh. Assistant Editor Sharad Gupta caught up with the goings on in Uttaranchal.

Malik, who ran into some bizarre sights, including a magician-candidate pulling party flags out of a hat, says, "If you want to be pessimistic about India, go to Uttar Pradesh." But that need not be the last word. Hopefully, the state could yet witness the different magic of a clear outcome and a stable government. One committed to improving the quality of administration for one-fifth of India's population.

(Aroon Purie)