By next Sunday, India will know the results of assembly elections in four of its states. Of these, Punjab is India's granary as it were, and Uttar Pradesh the political powerhouse. The BJP-led NDA, which rules nationally, faces possible reverses in both states. As certainly as eggs are eggs, this will set off the sort of irresponsible politics that so often nullifies India's robust democracy. Already there is talk of a possible Congress victory in Punjab facilitating a crack at the Centre. In Uttar Pradesh, no government is likely without the participation of either the Samajwadi Party or the BSP. At best this will force the BJP into sharing power under very harsh conditionalities; at worst it will shove it to the margins. What'll happen next? The Opposition in Delhi will see its chance to cripple the Government. The Congress will talk of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee having lost the "people's confidence". There will be the drearily familiar stories about the "third alternative", with every has-been from Chandra Shekhar to Jyoti Basu to V.P. Singh being speculated of as future prime minister. The Government, on its part, will see this as a wonderful opportunity to do what it does best-stop working. There will be the usual tumult in the Lok Sabha, walkouts and adjournments galore. The budget, rather than pushing ahead with the reformist agenda the Government has committed itself to as recently as this month, will become a tepid accountancy exercise.

Democracy, far from lending a certain credibility to governance, ends up sabotaging it in India. The more democratic the country becomes-if multiplicity of ruling parties in a federal polity be a measure of "more" democracy-the greater the negation of governance. In a country that sees a major provincial election virtually every year, victory and defeat for one political party or the other are hardly earth-shattering events. Ultimately, the responsibility of establishing the autonomy of policy from politics rests with the ruling alliance. If it appears on the defensive after the assembly elections, the Opposition will savage it. If, on the other hand, the NDA regime turns proactive-admittedly, that would be a change from its normal disposition-and keeps to the path of rational economics, it may still emerge a long-term winner. That day India's politics will be a fairytale. Right now, it can only wait for the big bad wolves.