Like the James Bond movies, Uttar Pradesh's politics has in recent times been heavily influenced by an entity called "M". At various points, the identity of M has varied-mandir, Mandal, Muslim (vote). In election 2002, the reigning M is clear enough-Mayawati, the Bahujan Samaj Party's queen. As quick analyses of exit polls suggest, she has emerged as the biggest gainer of the assembly elections in India's politically largest state.

Of the three post-election governments formed in Uttar Pradesh in the past decade-1991, 1993 and 1997- two depended on Mayawati. She has been chief minister two times, in 1995 and 1997. As things stand, she remains a factor to contend with.

SHASTRI UNDER THE SCANNER

KING MAKER As Uttar Pradesh groans at the prospect of yet another hung Assembly, all attention is focused on the Raj Bhavan. "Vishnu Kant Shastri believes in the role of the governor as envisaged by the Constitution," says a senior gubernatorial aide in Lucknow, "and dislikes disturbing an elected government and its chief minister." Excellent, profound words. Precisely what do they mean in today's context? SHASTRI: Rough ride ahead The choice before Governor Shastri is twofold. One, he can blindly swear in the leader of the largest group after the election and then give him time to "acquire" support. Alternatively, he can refuse to swear in a government without the chief ministerial aspirant establishing that he has the backing of 202 MLAs-just over half the state Assembly. He could demand, as President K.R. Narayanan did of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998, letters of support. The second option may be the proper one, but it won't make Shastri popular with the party that finishes first. The first option won't make him popular with the party that finishes second. Shastri could always exercise the third option-as one of his predecessors, Romesh Bhandari, did in 1996-and recommend President's rule, keeping the Assembly in suspended animation. There are indications that even senior leaders in the BJP may prefer President's rule. The assembly would not be dissolved but "kept alive" to facilitate the Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh as well as the state's participation in this summer's presidential election. Of course, if President's rule is resorted to, Shastri's skills as an administrator will be under scrutiny. While Union cabinet ministers in Delhi are already talking about appointing key bureaucrats as the governor's advisers -senior ias officer Bhure Lal's name is doing the rounds-Shastri himself will be a newcomer to governance. A former MLA in West Bengal- he taught Hindi at Calcutta University for many years, headed the bjp unit there and was the Rajya Sabha member from, ironically, Uttar Pradesh-Shastri is an rss old timer. As an associate puts it, "He speaks difficult Hindi and even more difficult Bengali." Shastri, who covered the Bangladesh war for Hindi journal Dharmayug, has one gripe about Uttar Pradesh-that it is obsessed with caste. A man of tradition, soon after taking over as governor in November 2001, Shastri sought to "Indianise" his new home. Raj Bhavan's banquet hall was renamed Annapurna, the dining hall Tripati and the colonial sounding Blue Room, the Neel Kumum. That aside, he has had a quiet time. A friendly person, unlike Uttar Pradesh's usually politicised governors, he has got along with virtually all the parties. It's a friends hip that will be put to the test in the coming days. -Subhash Mishra

Mayawati's strategy for poll 2002 was both typical and atypical. As always, the bsp went about its work in a quiet manner, mobilising voters-it devoted three months in the winter of 2001 to making sure its committed supporters had received their voter id cards-far from the media gaze. So while the focus throughout the pre-election flurry remained on Rajnath Singh (bjp) and Mulayam Singh Yadav (Samajwadi Party), it was Mayawati who inched towards her goal.

The bsp had failed to cross the 70-seat mark in the state Assembly in the 1993 and 1996 polls. This was Mayawati's first goal in 2002. So even as her party worked to retain its Dalit vote, it widened its candidate base, with an unprecedented number of upper caste nominees (92, including 38 Brahmins and 36 Thakurs), Muslims (82) and obcs (126).

"Mayawati was aware that most of the Brahmins and Thakurs fielded by her would not win," explains a senior civil servant considered close to the bsp. "At the same time she was confident that in fetching whatever votes they could these upper caste candidates would weaken the BJP.''

The OBC strategy was a daring assault on the SP. Mayawati wooed not the most backward castes-the ''underprivileged'' among the OBCs-but the affluent and militant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis and Shakyas. In the process, she even replaced the Dalit candidates with obcs, indicating how much she could take her core vote for granted.

What helped the BSP was the fragmentation of its rivals' vote. While the bjp's traditional obc supporters, Lodhs, distanced themselves from the party after the sacking of clansman and former chief minister Kalyan Singh, several disenchanted Brahmins chose to go either with the Congress or back a Brahmin candidate irrespective of his party.

Neither was the bjp benefited by its alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan and his Lok Janshakti party. Paswan was meant to woo the Passis, the second-largest Dalit sub-caste-Chamars or Jatavs are the largest and the bedrock of the BSP. As per the exit poll results, Paswan's mission can safely be called a failure. The Passis seem to have stuck to Mayawati.

While other parties were troubled by factionalism and dissidence, the bsp had no such problem. The sacking of R.K. Chaudhary and B.R. Verma, two senior bsp leaders who later joined hands with the BJP, on the eve of assembly elections failed to demoralise the Mayawati brigade.

The BSP may lack structure and manifesto, but like Mulayam, Mayawati too has committed cadres in the state bureaucracy who help mobilise support among the government officials. Besides, her two terms as chief minister have created an impact that saw more women attending her campaign rallies than even Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's or Congress President Sonia Gandhi's. Mayawati's decision to contest two seats, Haraura in Saharanpur and Jahangirabad in Ambedkar Nagar, also served to enthuse party workers.

Adding up to the bsp's advantages is the fact that over the past few years it has systematically demolished the ''red islands'' in Uttar Pradesh-the communist boroughs of Ghazipur, Mau and Ghosi in the east, and Kanpur and its evirons, Banda, Chitrakoot and Mainpuri in poverty stricken Bundelkhand. By converting the class issue into a caste one, the bsp has turned these areas into bsp bastions. Ram Manohar Lohia would have approved, even if his disciple, Mulayam, is fuming at the BSP's growth.

The Aaj Tak-C Voter exit poll for Uttar Pradesh's 403 seats gives the bjp 142 seats, the sp 136 and the bsp 83. The bsp's gains have been in the western and central parts of the state. Here, its vote share seems to have remained constant but a fall in the bjp and sp vote appears to have given her more seats. The eastern part of Uttar Pradesh remains Mayawati's Achilles' heel though. That's a battle for the next time.

The upshot of Mayawati's exertions is that she is better placed to negotiate post-poll. That she is a hard ally can be vouched for by the sp which reeled under her demands during the 1993-95 coalition and the bjp that suffered her in 1995 and then in 1997. Mulayam doesn't like her. Rajnath Singh is disdainful. Yet the exigencies of power and factionalism in the BJP-where Rajnath's rivals may be willing to do business with Mayawati-may just give her her chance. All Maya Memsahib has to do now is wait.