|
On
March 11, one of the world's truly great and enormously influential economists
passed away. Aged 84, James Tobin was still intellectually active at the
prestigious Yale University in the US. Incidentally, Yale is named after
Elihu Yale, governor of Madras during 1687-1692 who bequeathed his loot
to the institution in 1718 after losing his job over a corruption scandal.
One of the stars of its economics department for long has been T.N. Srinivasan,
among the most brilliant economic minds India has produced.
Tobin was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 1981 for his seminal
contributions to the understanding of financial markets and their linkages
with the "real" economy and also for his theory of portfolio
selection by households-for proving, as he said, that you don't put all
your eggs in one basket. He was among the chosen few who have fundamentally
altered the nature of economic theory, profoundly influenced the practice
of economic policy and decisively shaped the course of economic debate.
In
1961, Tobin shot into wider prominence when he became a member of US President
John F. Kennedy's Council of Economic Advisers along with Walter Heller
and Kermit Gordon. This council had among its staff members Kenneth Arrow
who shared the Nobel Prize in 1972, Robert Solow who won the accolade
in 1987 and Arthur Okun. It has enjoyed the highest reputation among all
such councils and is given credit for having laid the practical foundations
of "new economics" based on the works of John Maynard Keynes.
This was felt necessary because, as Michael Bernstein puts it in his recent
account of economists and public purpose in 20th century America A Perilous
Journey, even though a remarkably prosperous decade in the US, the 1950s
were punctuated by three recessions. In the early 1960s, American unemployment
rates fell sharply from about 7 per cent to 4 per cent. The revival recipe
was huge tax cuts. At that time, this appeared heretical because, in the
words of Bernstein, it entailed the "first deliberate peacetime indulgence
of federal budget deficits".
In 1972, building on a concept originally propounded by Keynes himself,
Tobin put forward a proposal to cushion fluctuations in exchange rates
that were becoming a matter of serious concern following the abandonment
of the fixed exchange-rate system in the winter of 1971. His idea was
simple: at each exchange of a currency into another, a small tax could
be levied. His motivation was not to have a new revenue-raising device
but to have an instrument to curb trafficking in foreign exchange, which
he felt would multiply phenomenally with electronic money exchanges. But
Tobin's idea generated little enthusiasm for much of the 1970s and 1980s
on the ground that in a world of tax havens, it could always be circumvented.
Some economists also argued that far from dampening volatility, the levy
would discourage growth in forex markets that is essential for lubricating
global trade.
The Tobin Tax, as it came to be called,was rescued from the groves of
academia by the eruption of currency crises first in Europe in 1992 and
1993 and then in Mexico in 1994. In October 1995, Mahbub-ul-Haq, the eminent
Pakistani economist who had been Tobin's student, organised an international
meeting in New York under the aegis of the UN. This resulted in a comprehensive
book The Tobin Tax: Coping with Financial Volatility, co-edited by Haq.
The East Asian crisis of 1997, the Brazilian turmoil of 1998 and the Russian
disaster of 1999 all led to renewed support for a Tobin Tax. It has been
championed aggressively by the anti-globalisation brigade and NGOs, leading
Tobin himself to bemoan that his ideas had been hijacked by those with
whose cause he had little sympathy. Ironically, the most powerful and
dreaded foreign-exchange trader, George Soros, has also backed the tax.
The tax has invited a positive reaction from European legislatures also,
although the US Congress rejected it in 1996. A group of eminent world
personalities, including Manmohan Singh, assembled by the UN under the
chairmanship of former Mexican president Ernest Zedillo, submitted a report
in June 2001 extending cautious support to the Tobin Tax. The International
Labour Organisation has just set up a high-level commission to study the
social dimensions of globalisation. It is co-chaired by the presidents
of Finland and Tanzania and includes Joseph Stiglitz, the 2001 economics
Nobel laureate and Deepak Nayyar, vice-chancellor of Delhi University.
This commission will also undoubtedly support the Tobin Tax when it submits
its report next year.
Tobin was also the only economist, other than John Nash, to figure in
a novel-Herman Wouk's The Caine Mutiny (1951) where "a mandarin-like
midshipman named Tobit with a domed forehead, measured quiet speech, and
a mind like a sponge, was ahead of the field by a spacious percentage".
Wouk's thinly veiled reference to his friend cannot be bettered as an
epitaph.
(The author is with the Congress party. These are
his personal views)
|