STANDING FIRM: Sonia (extreme right) isn't bowing to pressure from the CPI(M)

On March 18, when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee told the Rajya Sabha that he was ready to sit in the Opposition-where he had, after all, spent almost an entire lifetime-there was no ring of resignation in his voice. He spoke with the confidence of a man who knew there was no alternative to his Government. "I am willing to hand over the reins to anyone who is willing to take charge. I know you people are making some effort. I wish you all the very best."

Nation

"The BJP must finish its term. Its real face must be seen." Kamal Nath, AICC general secretary "The Congress wants to wait. But events will overtake it." Amar Singh, Samajwadi Party leader "The process of disintegration of the NDA has begun." Nilotpal Basu, CPI(M) leader " We do not want to bring down this Government." K. Yerran Naidu, TDP leader

Barring a weak repartee from Kapil Sibal, there were no takers for his challenge from the Opposition benches. There was sufficient temptation, though. For nearly four weeks, partners of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had been openly critical of the BJP and the crisis within the coalition had reached a flashpoint. At least two of the 24 NDA allies-the Trinamool Congress and the JD(U)-called for a ban on the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and the Bajrang Dal on the floor of the Lok Sabha. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) did not quite call for a ban but demanded strong action against the militant Hindutva groups.

It was for the first time in three years that the allies had indicated that their patience was running out. Yet the Opposition-which had only three years ago brought down the government after a tea party-was not rubbing its hands in glee. On the contrary, the Congress, which had disrupted House proceedings for over two weeks, returned to normal parliamentary business. The CPI(M) fell in line. Leader of the Opposition Sonia Gandhi went on to make the best speech of her short parliamentary career while debating the motion of thanks to the President's address. The BJP picked up more votes in the Lok Sabha while securing passage for the Prevention of Terrorism Bill (POTO), 2002 after the AIADMK and Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party voted in favour of the Bill.

With the Congress showing no indication of making a bid for power, the CPI(M)-which had been persuading it to form an alternative government-became bitter. At the CPI(M) Congress in Hyderabad last week, party General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet spewed venom on the Congress' economic policies and said his party would renew efforts to revive the Third Front. Recalcitrant NDA allies, which had been banking on the Congress, also despaired. "The Congress has not taken the expected initiative," lamented a JD(U) leader.

The Congress is perhaps aware of its limitations. It knows it cannot match the number game with just 112 members in the 13th Lok Sabha. In a House of 545, the NDA has 306 members, which leaves the Congress and the rest of the Opposition parties with 239 members. For the Congress to make a credible bid for power, it needs to wean away at least 43 members from the NDA to reach the halfway mark of 272. Many of the NDA allies-like the TDP in Andhra Pradesh-will have nothing to do with the Congress as the party is the main rival on their home turf. Then, of course, come the problems of running a coalition. As the undisputed leader of the Congress, Sonia is used to having her way. A luxury she may not be able to enjoy as the leader of a coalition with its inherent pulls and pressures.

The buzz in Congress circles is that Sonia was under immense pressure from the CPI(M) and the Samajwadi Party to explore the chances of an alternative government ever since the Gujarat riots broke out. But Sonia decided not to take any shortcuts to power. "We decided that the BJP must complete its term in office. People must see its real face. We have learnt our lesson of March 1999," says AICC General Secretary Kamal Nath, referring to the Congress' failure to get the requisite numbers to form a government after the previous Vajpayee government was defeated by one vote in Parliament. Thus, though Surjeet has been working overtime trying to persuade the Congress to take the initiative, this time he has not even been able to win over Arjun Singh, his long-time friend in the Congress. When Surjeet approached Sonia and asked her to be flexible, the Congress told him to get in touch with RJD President Laloo Prasad Yadav whom Mulayam does not see eye to eye with. "We also told Surjeet that we could not follow Mulayam. After all, he has no stake beyond Uttar Pradesh," says a Congress Working Committee member.

Sonia nevertheless maintained a charade of unity with other opposition parties. She took part in protest marches organised by the Left. She even allowed CPI(M) leader Somnath Chatterjee to lead her party in walk-outs like the one after the passage of the POTO Bill in the Lok Sabha. She also showed she was in no hurry to tap the BJP's allies in the NDA. "The contradictions within the NDA will come out fully. The allies will soon have to leave the BJP. The Uttar Pradesh and Punjab assembly elections results have shown that the BJP is no longer of incremental value to them," says an AICC functionary.

Non-Congress parties, however, are not sure if the ruling coalition can continue in office for long. Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh is confident that events will force the Congress' hand. "The Congress is waiting for tina to become sita (Sonia is the alternative)," he quips. Betrayed by the Congress' refusal to back Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh, Amar Singh takes heart from the CPI(M)'s call to strengthen the Third Front. "The Congress must come out clearly and say it will not support Mulayam." Nilotpal Basu of the CPI(M) says "The process of disintegration of the NDA has begun. The BJP is being isolated. In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA allies along with the Opposition pressured the Government to move a resolution condemning the attack on the Orissa Assembly."

Not everyone in the Opposition shares the view that the NDA is heading for a showdown. "Where is the crisis?" asks Revolutionary Socialist Party leader Abani Roy. "The NDA is gaining in the numbers game. There is no threat to it from outside. Nobody in the NDA is willing to leave. Can the TDP and Congress go together? Can the CPI(M) accept Mamata?" Roy sees recent developments in Uttar Pradesh as a pointer to the shape of things to come. "Surjeet pleaded with Sonia to support Mulayam. She didn't oblige." Perhaps that's because four years in politics have taught Sonia to beware of the contradictions inherent in forging a coalition. And her political education seems to have put paid to the dreams of friends as well as foes in the Opposition.