Neighbours

OTHER STORIES RELATED TO NEIGHBOURS Interview: Sardar Abdul Quayyum Khan

It may just be semantics. But everyone in Pakistan knows that if you call yourself a "jehadi" you are likely to get Bush-whacked. So these days Islamabad's power circles are engaged in a game of complex wordplay to reinvent the Kashmir struggle and make it more palatable for the West.

Analyst Khalid Mahmud of the Institute for Regional Studies in Islamabad thinks the problem could be solved by simply changing the rhetoric. Instead of calling themselves Khudai Faujdars (Allah's army), he believes the militants should go back to being called "azadis"
and the battlecry to "Kashmiriyat". His reason: "The freedom struggle in Kashmir has to outgrow its image of religious extremists of Islam if it has to be internationally acceptable."

ON HOLD: Pakistani forces at the LoC; Musharraf (below) at a Kashmir solidarity meeting in Muzaffarabad

Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf has added his own list to the revised lexicon of Kashmir phraseology. In various statements since his January 12 speech clampdown on extremist elements in Pakistan he has trod a fine line when it comes to the Kashmir cause. The ingenious phrase that he and his government spokespersons use is that Kashmir militants are "indigenous" in origin and there is little his Government can do to break them if they operate in "Azad" Kashmir. This is the part of Kashmir under Pakistan's control.

Under pressure from the US and with India stacking up a million-strong army on its borders, Musharraf has been careful not to sound confrontationist on Kashmir. While expressing solidarity in the cause, he has told Pakistan-backed Kashmiri leaders that for the moment they should allow his Government and not guns to do the talking. To keep the political rhetoric up, his most recent move has been to form a high-powered Kashmir Committee headed by a perceived moderate, Sardar Mohammed Abdul Quayyum Khan, the former prime minister of Azad or Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (depending on which side of the divide one belongs to).

NO LET UP: Infiltration may have lessened but security forces continue to battle militants, killing four of them in Kupwara last week

India perceives the move by Musharraf as a clever ploy to tell the world that for now he has opted for the political route in Kashmir while satisfying restless elements in the Valley that he hasn't lost sight of their cause. Among the first thing that Quayyum proposed when his committee met last week was to send a delegation to India "to create an atmosphere which is conducive for removing misgivings and mistrust (see interview)".

Quayyum hasn't sent an official letter as yet. But it is likely to be rejected outright with India perceiving it as a way of starting a tripartite dialogue that Pakistan has always wanted. Since the dialogue Pakistan has in mind is usually with sections of the Kashmiri leadership favourable to it, India has steadfastly turned down any such move. This time too it is likely to tell Quayyum, as a foreign policy expert put it, "to take a hike". Nor does it want to resume an official dialogue with Pakistan till it is certain that Musharraf's policy on clamping down on extremists is more action than words.

SPOT CHECK: Pant's visit to Pakistan in April for SAARC will help assess the mood

While Musharraf's crackdown on key Kashmir militant groups such as the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Toiba has reduced infiltration of extremists on the loc, India remains wary. Many of the 6,500 extremists arrested by the Pakistani Police since January 12 are being released for "want of evidence". India fears that they may regroup in Pakistani Kashmir and cause a fresh wave of trouble at a later date. "Islamabad has yet to cut off military support to armed militant groups, despite Musharraf's pledges," says Rajinder Singh Bhullar, who heads the Border Security Force's intelligence wing in Kashmir. For India the critical test of Pakistan's sincerity will be when the snow melts and the passes become accessible. Only if there is marked lessening of infiltration will India de-escalate its military build-up and toy with resuming a dialogue.

There are other factors at work too. With six months to go for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, India began to make fresh policy moves in the state last week. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's told Parliament that he and his home and defence ministers plan to visit the Valley soon to "hold consultations on what strategy to adopt". The prime minister is likely to promise "free and fair" elections and invite all political groups, including the All Party Hurriyat Conference, to take part in them.

Meanwhile, another pointer that Delhi is preparing for new initiatives on Kashmir is the forthcoming visit to Pakistan of K.C. Pant, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission and the government's main interlocutor on Kashmir. Pant will be visiting Pakistan from April 8 to 10 for the meeting of the SAARC Commission on Poverty Alleviation. While South Block is at pains to emphasise that Pant will limit himself to multilateral issues and not Kashmir, the deputy chairman will get a chance to assess Pakistani views on the Kashmir issue. India's game plan is likely to be to keep the heat on and avoid a dialogue with Pakistan till the Kashmir elections are over. Pakistan, of course, will do everything to disrupt such a plan. Whatever the weather forecast, politically it is going to be a long, hot summer for the Valley.

-with Shishir Gupta and Izhar Wani