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In any case, both Vajpayee and Advani are well past their prime.The BJP, unlike the Congress, has not been able to effect a generational shift. It has a reserve of talented second-rung leaders but their services are grossly under-utilised. The tendency is to take the line of least resistance and find non-offensive but ineffectual veterans like Ram Prakash Gupta. It was Gupta's disastrous tenure that compounded the BJP's post-Kalyan Singh trauma in Uttar Pradesh. Indeed, if it hadn't been for Rajnath Singh's belated induction as chief minister, the BJP's performance in the polls would have been even more disastrous. As it is, the bizarre policy of having an upper-caste chief minister and an upper-caste party president cost the BJP, what Advani calls, its "holistic Hindu identity".

ILLUSIONS OF STRENGTH

L.K. Advani ACUTE ANALYTICAL MIND AND SHREWD STRATEGIST BUT is too preoccupied with the affairs of the Union Home Ministry to provide direction to the organisation. SEES RSS AS A MORAL AUTHORITY OVER THE BJP BUT is bound by the NDA agenda and finds himself unable to implement the RSS' policies in the Government. WANTS TO RETURN TO PARTY TO STRENGTHEN IT BUT is unable to do so for fear of creating a power centre rivalling Vajpayee. Would like someone with mass base to take over as party chief. A.B. VAJPAYEE EXCELLENT PARLIAMENTARIAN, GOOD ORATOR BUT is rattled by successive electoral reverses and VHP tantrums as witnessed during his recent spat with the Opposition in the Lok Sabha. DOESN'T LIKE RSS' INTERFERENCE IN GOVERNANCE BUT has to bear with it since a large number of BJP leaders, including ministers, have RSS links and also seek ideological support from it. COMMITTED TO THE NDA AGENDA BUT faced with problems from Sangh Parivar affiliates as well as his own party members who have strong Hindutva leanings.

This tension at the helm combined with lack of cohesion and direction mean that instead of governance, the Government is expending its energies on firefighting. So even as it is trying to soothe the allies' irritations on the one hand, it is forced into placating the RSS rabble-rousers on the other. It is an appeasement that has stretched to the Sangh Parivar right from the outset-the Swadeshi Jagran Manch grappling with the Government over the WTO, the Bharat Mazdoor Sangh lecturing it on disinvestment in the public sector, the VHP keeping up the chorus on Ayodhya and the Bajrang Dal indulging in its annual passion of Valentine's Day bashing. To begin with, the RSS, under Rajendra Singh alias Rajju Bhaiyya, toed a tame line, even moderating between the sulking saffron brigade and the Government. But after K.S. Sudarshan took over as the sarsanghchalak in March 2000, the relationship soured as the RSS became more intrusive.

Having committed itself to the NDA and nag at least till 2004, the BJP is in no position to revert to Hindutva. This stance is expected to be iterated, perhaps more forcefully, at the BJP's three-day National Executive meeting in Goa next week. There is an influential section in the party, ideologically closer to the Sangh, that is incensed enough with Vajpayee to even suggest his shifting into Rashtrapati Bhavan, now that President K.R. Narayanan's term is coming to an end.

PARENT TRAP: The BJP spends a lot of energy in appeasing the Sangh Parivar

The Goa conclave may well be the beginning of a restructuring process within the party, with leaders commanding a significant mass base being moved to the organisation. The clamour for Advani's return as party chief is also expected to resurface, but if at all a change occurs it is the dynamic, if a bit abrasive, Pramod Mahajan who could end up bagging the post (see box). There is also talk of a cabinet reshuffle which will have to wait at least till mid-May when the budget session of Parliament ends. Whether these changes can provide an impetus to the party and the Government to exercise some hard options remains to be seen. If not, a resurgent Congress under Sonia Gandhi is waiting in the wings to take over.

-with bureau reports