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 CURRENT ISSUE APRIL 22, 2002  

COVER STORY: THE PRESIDENCY

Strong Candidature
    Cover Story
OTHER STORIES RELATED TO COVER

The President Lives...

Battle for the Bridesmaid
Split Decision

On its part, the Congress hasn't revealed more than half its cards. There is a perception that Alexander as President may not be suitable for Sonia's eventual move to 7 Race Course Road. After all, a Christian President as well as a Christian prime minister may not be politically correct. "All we want," says party spokesman S. Jaipal Reddy, "is that the presidential candidate must be a person who should have a reasonable reputation for being impartial. Someone who does not take all the powers enjoined by the Constitution as seriously as Zail Singh did."

    Cover Story
L.M. Singhvi, 70

Jurist who socialised his way into reckoning.

Not a non-starter but certainly a self-starter. Uphill task.

FOR: Swatantra Party man in olden times. High commissioner to the UK in Congress times. Rajya Sabha member in BJP times. Friends in all parties at all times. His skills as a networker are truly extraordinary.
AGAINST: There's only so far that climbing the right ladders can take you. Singhvi knows a lot of people but is not a "true" Congressman or a "real" BJP man. There's a perception that he's already got more public honour than he deserves.

A section of the Congress is backing Karan Singh because "he has acceptability even among the NDA". The former Dogra royal is banking on the support of the Samata Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party and is hoping the BJP will forget he stood against Vajpayee in Lucknow during the 1999 general elections.

Even so, Singh's soft Hindutva approach to life may not win him friends among the left parties and the Samajwadi Party. "If the Congress fields Karan Singh, for the sake of secular unity we will support him," admits Amar Singh. The rest is left unstated. The man who has spent 53 years in public—Karan Singh became regent of Jammu and Kashmir at 18-allows himself just cryptic sentences. "I am a candidate only if the Congress fields me," adding for good measure, "I have a lot of goodwill."

    Cover Story
Karan Singh, 71

President in waiting for whole decades.

He is India's Al Gore, the former next president.

FOR: Has Congress backers and his Hinduised political philosophy-he sees himself as a contemporary Aurobindo-could go down well with sections of the BJP too.
AGAINST: The BJP can't forget that he stood against Vajpayee in the 1999 election. Left and Samajwadi Party are uncomfortable with his "soft Hindutva". No political base.

Actually, the presidential election was a bit of a phoney war till even a fortnight ago. A second term for Narayanan seemed a likely conclusion. As early as the summer of 2001, the late Madhavrao Scindia sounded out Narayanan who apparently said he was not confident about his health. Earlier this year, Sonia sent K. Natwar Singh for another meeting in Rashtrapati Bhavan. Presumably more confident of his health now, Narayanan indicated his interest in being a consensus candidate.

Till March 26-the day the joint session of Parliament voted on the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO)- the BJP would have played ball. Neither the Congress-led Opposition nor the BJP-led NDA was confident of being able to elect their candidates in a clear contest. The passage of POTO by 426 votes to 296 gave the NDA new ideas. The accretion in its support courtesy the aiadmk's 17 MPs and the Nationalist Congress Party's (NCP's) nine was a boost. Translated into electoral college strength, the result gave the NDA a clear edge of 49,500 votes (see box).

BJP+ALLIES WITH
439 MPs & 1,680 MLAs
BJP 2,60,696

Rest of NDA

1,56,701
TDP+TRINAMOOL 73,202
NDA+ALLIES 4,90,599
AIADMK 45,880
NCP 17,246
NDA+ALLIES+FRIENDS 5,53,725
BSP 36,117
TOTAL NDA+Allies+ All friendly parties

5,89,842

CONG+allies with 332 MPs & 2,429 MLAs
CONGRESS+ALLIES 2,69,784
SAMAJWADI PARTY 55,135
RJD 33,033
OTHERS 35,027
LEFT PARTIES 85,563
INDEPENDENTS 25,683

TOTAL CONGRESS
+Allies+Friends

5,04,225

These figures assume the constitution of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly; the Goa Assembly has not been taken into account.
Value of an MP's vote is 708, that of an MLA varies from state to state.

SCENARIO 1
If TDP, ADMK, BSP and NCP vote with NDA, it will lead by 85,617 over the Congress and allies. The NDA wins.
SCENARIO 2
If the TDP, Left and Samajwadi put up a third candidate, the contest will go to second preference votes. Outcome uncertain, but advantage NDA.
SCENARIO 3
If ADMK, NCP and BSP vote along with Congress+allies, they will be 99,244 votes ahead of NDA. Congress wins.
SCENARIO 4
If the BSP abstains, the NDA will still be ahead of the Congress and its allies by 49,500 votes with 5,53,725 votes. NDA wins.

Rajya Sabha MP Praful Patel of NCP cautions the NDA not to take his party for granted, "The POTO vote has nothing to do with any political alliance with the BJP." Even so, the BJP is upbeat. "If Narayanan asks for a second term," says a ruling party leader, "he can have it. Otherwise if we have a majority we must have a more amenable President. That's what everyone in the NDA wants. Narayanan has not been very cooperative." Even Telugu Desam Party MPs speak of the need for a President who doesn't seem infirm.

Despite his party's anxieties-Narayanan is anything but sympathetic to the BJP's politics-Vajpayee is at one level not averse to giving the President another five years. He has dropped hints in one-to-one interactions and, sources say, probably sees this as keeping with his Nehruvian self-image. Jawaharlal Nehru was ideologically closer to Narayanan's London School of Economics guru Harold Laski and not quite comfortable with Rajendra Prasad, the orthodox Hindu at Raisina Hill. Yet he gave "Rajen Babu" a second term in 1957.

In the first half of the budget session of Parliament, Narayanan was under scrutiny. Every move, physical or procedural, was keenly interpreted. His candidature took a beating when he was helped to his seat in Central Hall. Samajwadi Party and Left Front leaders were miffed when he didn't meet a team that had just returned from Gujarat. "He refused to see us because he was too ill," says a Samajwadi functionary.

The Congress, Narayanan's original proposer, is not without second thoughts either. "Within an hour of receiving the joint sitting proposal (for POTO) from the Parliamentary Affairs Ministry, Narayanan signed and returned the file," points out an AICC functionary. "He could have delayed it under the pretext of consulting the attorney-general or seeking legal opinion. He didn't because he was anxious to be in the good books of the BJP."

Rashtrapati Bhavan sources are eager to emphasise how fit Narayanan is for the job. "The President is in fine fettle," says an aide. "At the banquet hosted in honour of Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, he stood for half an hour delivering a speech." He explains that Narayanan remained seated during his address to Parliament because of a sprained leg.

While a gambler may well put that extra 10 paise on Narayanan, the fact is any of half a dozen people could become the next President. "We have the numbers," claims a BJP leader, "but going by past record the prime minister may opt for a consensus." No wonder half his party jokes (and perhaps hopes) that Vajpayee will give himself the job.

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