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On its part,
the Congress hasn't revealed more than half its cards. There is a perception
that Alexander as President may not be suitable for Sonia's eventual move
to 7 Race Course Road. After all, a Christian President as well as a Christian
prime minister may not be politically correct. "All we want,"
says party spokesman S. Jaipal Reddy, "is that the presidential candidate
must be a person who should have a reasonable reputation for being impartial.
Someone who does not take all the powers enjoined by the Constitution
as seriously as Zail Singh did."
A section of the Congress is backing Karan Singh because "he has
acceptability even among the NDA". The former Dogra royal is banking
on the support of the Samata Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party and is
hoping the BJP will forget he stood against Vajpayee in Lucknow during
the 1999 general elections.
Even so, Singh's soft Hindutva approach to life may not win him friends
among the left parties and the Samajwadi Party. "If the Congress
fields Karan Singh, for the sake of secular unity we will support him,"
admits Amar Singh. The rest is left unstated. The man who has spent 53
years in publicKaran Singh became regent of Jammu and Kashmir at
18-allows himself just cryptic sentences. "I am a candidate only
if the Congress fields me," adding for good measure, "I have
a lot of goodwill."
Actually, the presidential election was a bit of a phoney war till even
a fortnight ago. A second term for Narayanan seemed a likely conclusion.
As early as the summer of 2001, the late Madhavrao Scindia sounded out
Narayanan who apparently said he was not confident about his health. Earlier
this year, Sonia sent K. Natwar Singh for another meeting in Rashtrapati
Bhavan. Presumably more confident of his health now, Narayanan indicated
his interest in being a consensus candidate.
Till March 26-the day the joint session of Parliament voted on the Prevention
of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO)- the BJP would have played ball. Neither
the Congress-led Opposition nor the BJP-led NDA was confident of being
able to elect their candidates in a clear contest. The passage of POTO
by 426 votes to 296 gave the NDA new ideas. The accretion in its support
courtesy the aiadmk's 17 MPs and the Nationalist Congress Party's (NCP's)
nine was a boost. Translated into electoral college strength, the result
gave the NDA a clear edge of 49,500 votes (see box).
BJP+ALLIES WITH
439 MPs & 1,680 MLAs |
| BJP |
2,60,696 |
|
Rest of NDA
|
1,56,701 |
| TDP+TRINAMOOL |
73,202 |
| NDA+ALLIES |
4,90,599 |
| AIADMK |
45,880
|
| NCP |
17,246 |
| NDA+ALLIES+FRIENDS |
5,53,725 |
| BSP |
36,117 |
| TOTAL NDA+Allies+ All friendly parties |
5,89,842
|
| CONG+allies with 332 MPs & 2,429
MLAs |
| CONGRESS+ALLIES |
2,69,784 |
| SAMAJWADI PARTY |
55,135 |
| RJD |
33,033 |
| OTHERS |
35,027 |
| LEFT PARTIES |
85,563 |
| INDEPENDENTS |
25,683 |
|
TOTAL CONGRESS
+Allies+Friends
|
5,04,225 |
|
These figures assume the constitution of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly;
the Goa Assembly has not been taken into account.
Value of an MP's vote is 708, that of an MLA varies from state to
state.
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SCENARIO 1
If TDP, ADMK, BSP and NCP vote with NDA, it will lead by 85,617
over the Congress and allies. The NDA wins.
SCENARIO 2
If the TDP, Left and Samajwadi put up a third candidate, the contest
will go to second preference votes. Outcome uncertain, but advantage
NDA.
SCENARIO 3
If ADMK, NCP and BSP vote along with Congress+allies, they will
be 99,244 votes ahead of NDA. Congress wins.
SCENARIO 4
If the BSP abstains, the NDA will still be ahead of the Congress
and its allies by 49,500 votes with 5,53,725 votes. NDA wins.
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Rajya Sabha MP Praful Patel of NCP cautions the NDA not to take his party
for granted, "The POTO vote has nothing to do with any political
alliance with the BJP." Even so, the BJP is upbeat. "If Narayanan
asks for a second term," says a ruling party leader, "he can
have it. Otherwise if we have a majority we must have a more amenable
President. That's what everyone in the NDA wants. Narayanan has not been
very cooperative." Even Telugu Desam Party MPs speak of the need
for a President who doesn't seem infirm.
Despite his party's anxieties-Narayanan is anything but sympathetic to
the BJP's politics-Vajpayee is at one level not averse to giving the President
another five years. He has dropped hints in one-to-one interactions and,
sources say, probably sees this as keeping with his Nehruvian self-image.
Jawaharlal Nehru was ideologically closer to Narayanan's London School
of Economics guru Harold Laski and not quite comfortable with Rajendra
Prasad, the orthodox Hindu at Raisina Hill. Yet he gave "Rajen Babu"
a second term in 1957.
In the first half of the budget session of Parliament, Narayanan was under
scrutiny. Every move, physical or procedural, was keenly interpreted.
His candidature took a beating when he was helped to his seat in Central
Hall. Samajwadi Party and Left Front leaders were miffed when he didn't
meet a team that had just returned from Gujarat. "He refused to see
us because he was too ill," says a Samajwadi functionary.
The Congress, Narayanan's original proposer, is not without second thoughts
either. "Within an hour of receiving the joint sitting proposal (for
POTO) from the Parliamentary Affairs Ministry, Narayanan signed and returned
the file," points out an AICC functionary. "He could have delayed
it under the pretext of consulting the attorney-general or seeking legal
opinion. He didn't because he was anxious to be in the good books of the
BJP."
Rashtrapati Bhavan sources are eager to emphasise how fit Narayanan
is for the job. "The President is in fine fettle," says an aide.
"At the banquet hosted in honour of Indonesian President Megawati
Sukarnoputri, he stood for half an hour delivering a speech." He
explains that Narayanan remained seated during his address to Parliament
because of a sprained leg.
While a gambler may well put that extra 10 paise on Narayanan, the fact
is any of half a dozen people could become the next President. "We
have the numbers," claims a BJP leader, "but going by past record
the prime minister may opt for a consensus." No wonder half his party
jokes (and perhaps hopes) that Vajpayee will give himself the job.

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