Neighbours

OTHER STORIES RELATED TO NEIGHBOURS Evolution of the Tiger

In person, Vellupillai Prabhakaran doesn't quite measure up to his image of being the world's most ruthless guerrilla warlord. As part of his new strategy to don a political mantle, he has discarded his trademark army fatigues for tight-fitting, light coloured safari suits. Unfortunately for him, his civilian attire emphasises his expanding girth and stocky build. With his clean-shaven chubby cheeks and hair brushed neatly back, he could pass for a moderately successful businessman or even a government minister. The eyes are a giveaway-alive, alert and wary. At times the cunning shows. When provoked, they turn ferocious.

A peaceable Prabhakaran is all smiles at the April 10 press conference

PRABHAKARAN'S COMPULSIONS Global Clampdown US pressure and the ban imposed by Britain and Australia have forced the LTTE to explore the political options. Friendly Politics With a friendlier Sri Lankan government, there's a chance of legitimising control over the north. Limits to Terror Realising that India and the US would never allow secession by use of force, now wants Delhi to participate in negotiations.

At his first press conference in 12 years last Wednesday, inside his lair in the forests of northern Sri Lanka, Prabhakaran was careful though to look benign and sheathe his blood-stained claws in velvety promises. He frequently allowed his thin lips to slant into a disarming grin that made him look like a cat that has just licked the cream.

There was no mistaking though where his power stemmed from and how he has been able to survive unharmed for so long. His personal security rivalled that of the Indian prime minister with rows of heavily armed soldiers guarding every square inch of the venue. Inside the hall, five toughs who wore sun glasses even though it was dark, stood at his sides watching everyone closely. Hordes of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) men filmed every journalist who was present. Earlier everyone was thoroughly frisked with even footwear being examined. With impressive military precision, at the anointed time, Prabhakaran drove up in a white and grey mini-van and walked briskly into the open-air hall. For the next two hours he fielded questions from journalists with earnestness and equanimity.

ROAD TO AMITY: LTTE's move to reopen the A-9 highway is celebrated with a peace marathon

It was an extraordinary performance for someone who had remained underground for more than two decades building the LTTE into one of the most secretive and lethal insurgent armies. Today, the LTTE could teach even Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaida a few lessons in the art of terror. In his bid to achieve Eelam or an independent nation for Sri Lanka's minority Tamil community who constitute 18 per cent of the total population of 18 million, Prabhakaran escalated the use of violence to horrific levels (see box). Over the years, the ethnic strife has claimed 60,000 lives and even sucked India into its bloody matrix. It has pushed the country to the brink of political and economic ruin.

Now for the first time Prabhakaran was signalling to the Lankan Government and the world that he was willing to explore a peaceful political settlement. Gopal Gandhi, India's high commissioner to Sri Lanka, describes it as a "defining moment" in the island country's war-torn history. Pakiasothy Sarawannamuttu, political analyst and executive director, Centre for Policy Alternatives, Colombo, says, "Prabhakaran is indicating that he is serious about joining the political mainstream. It marks an entirely new but positive phase."

Even before Prabhakaran held the press conference, he had indicated he was willing to explore the path of peace. In February, he signed a landmark agreement with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe that called for a cessation of hostilities and a negotiated settlement. Last week, the LTTE agreed to reopen sections of the crucial A-9 highway that connects the south to the northern regions controlled by the LTTE.

AT A TANGENT: Wickremesinghe (left) felt reassured after the press conference but Kumaratunga feels she was not fully consulted on the Government's deal with the LTTE

The move resulted in unprecedented scenes of bonhomie between the Sinhala and Tamil communities with even the armies of the two sides working to clear the mines on the highway. Citizen groups joined in by promoting marathon runs and cycle races across the newly opened highway. With prominent Buddhist prelates welcoming the peace talks and even flagging off such races, Colombo's Daily News in an editorial described it as a "significant milestone in the road to peace". Damith DeSilva, a former Sri Lankan Asian Games medallist, who ran much of the distance, says, "This is the first real chance we have had in years."

PRAYING FOR PEACE: A broken church at Killinochchi offers hope to the faithful

So, is this Tiger, the most feared man eater, changing its stripes? Most experts are wary given his track record of breaking off from peace deals. For the press conference they worked out a mathematical formula of E minus (meaning how much would he relent from his maximalist position of Eelam) and D plus (denoting how strongly he would come on devolution of powers) to calculate just how sincere Prabhakaran was.

Prabhakaran just about passed. No one was expecting him to announce the end of his armed struggle or even give up the concept of Eelam. At the press meet, Prabhakaran defined the core of the LTTE's demands as the recognition of a homeland for Tamils, their nationality and the right of self-determination. These had been volatile issues since the 1960s when the Tamils felt they were being treated as second-class citizens. Apart from making Sinhala the sole national language, various Lankan governments began discriminating against Tamils for jobs and reservation of seats in educational institutions.

The first two demands of homeland and nationality could be worked out under the framework of the constitution. The core issue is the right of self-determination-it could lead to secession. At the press meeting, Anton Balasingham, LTTE ideologue and chief negotiator, took pains to define the organisation's brand of self-determination and said it could mean self-government. He added significantly, "Only as the last resort would we opt for secession."

That was enough to make Wickremesinghe feel reassured enough to say the next day, "Taking a cue from this positive reaction, we must commit ourselves to trek the difficult path towards a permanent solution." Next month the two sides are to hold talks in Bangkok to work out the modalities of an interim administration that could give the LTTE government-recognised administrative control over the areas it now controls militarily.

Interim administration may be the easy part. LTTE's core demands require constitutional amendments that will have to be passed by a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Wickremesinghe, who heads the United National Party, came to power with a thin majority of two in the 225-member house. He would require the cooperation of the main opposition party the People's Alliance controlled by President Chandrika Kumaratunga. She has already expressed her displeasure over not being consulted fully on the deal with the LTTE.

There are, however, powerful factors that are driving both sides towards some form of settlement. The post-September 11 developments have seen the US and other countries come down strongly on the use of terror to achieve political ends. Prabhakaran and his organisation have already felt the pressure. The US, Britain and Australia have banned the LTTE and frozen its funds.

The Indian factor too is the key. Given the impact on neighbouring Tamil Nadu, apart from Kashmir, India will do its best to prevent the formation of Eelam. It is ready to assist Sri Lanka militarily if LTTE's objectives get out of hand. Fighting the Indian Army is something Prabhakaran would like to avoid. The LTTE has realised its folly of assassinating Rajiv Gandhi and at the press conference he repeatedly pleaded with India to "forget the past" and forge a new friendship. It suits India to keep out of the negotiations and allow Norway to play the broker. Also with the ban on LTTE and the Congress demanding Prabhakaran's extradition, the Indian Government would prefer to keep a low profile. Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee has already rejected the LTTE request to lift the ban.

There was intense speculation that the 47-year-old Prabhakaran was pushing for peace as he was going through a mid-life crisis: he was tired of fighting and even the LTTE army was overstretched. Married with three children (the eldest, a girl, is 14) Prabhakaran is said to be keen on donning a political mantle to have a modicum of family life. But Prabhakaran dismissed such rumours with a contemptuous wave.

The Tigers are far from being a diminished power. The LTTE has regained much of its military might in the past five years. Only eight months ago, it carried out a attack against the Katanayake air base in Colombo destroying eight military aircraft, and then proceeded to wipe out half of Sri Lankan airways commercial fleet parked on the runway. The LTTE now negotiates from a position of military strength. But Prabhakaran realises that while he may never lose the war he may never win it either.

It's the disastrous state of the economy that is a major push factor for the Sri Lankan Government. The years of fighting have seen a negative growth rate. Last year, it was minus 1.3 per cent. The Government is desperate to put the economy back on rails. The LTTE too is feeling the pressure from the people in the Tamil-dominated regions in the north and east because development has stagnated in these areas. While the people in the provinces controlled by the Government enjoy a per capita income of $900 (Rs 43,200) a year, in LTTE areas experts put it at less than $150.

The transition from a military general to a political leader is going to be Prabhakaran's biggest test. After his press conference, he made an effort to meet leaders of major Tamil parties and take them into confidence. He has also sent conciliatory messages to the Muslims in the region who have been persecuted by LTTE in the past. Many believe that Prabhakaran has not given up the armed struggle for Eelam. Choosing a political option is a ploy to move the pieces forward in his favour on the chessboard of Lankan politics. Author M.R. Narayan Swamy, whose book on the Tigers is considered among the more authentic accounts, says, "The Tigers are irrevocably on the path of Eelam. Even the current cease-fire is part of that long-term strategy. He hasn't changed his stripes." The tiger is keeping everyone guessing about his next move.

-with Christine Jayasinghe in Colombo