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When the members of the BJP National Executive trooped into the Marriot Hotel in Goa on April 12, the mood was funereal. By the time they departed two days later, there was an extra bounce in their steps and a touch of triumphalism in the air. The catalyst of this remarkable transformation was the ubiquitous Narendra Modi.

SPLIT PERSONALITY: Vajpayee's BJP identity overshadowed his national status

"Wherever there are muslims they are unwilling to live in peace." A.B. Vajpayee at a BJP meeting, Goa

The Modi effect proved electrifying for a BJP smarting under a succession of devastating election defeats. No sooner had party President Jana Krishnamurthy completed his "taken as read" presidential address than Modi got up and said in his sombre, chaste Hindi: "Adhyakshji, I want to speak on Gujarat ... From the party's point of view, this is a grave issue. There is a need for a free and frank discussion. To enable this I wish to place my resignation before this body. It is time we decided what direction the party and the country should take from this point onwards."

He didn't need to say more. With one stroke, the Gujarat chief minister had seized the initiative. He galvanised his supporters who now stood up to be counted. Food Minister Shanta Kumar, who had spoken out against Modi and the VHP's extremes, found himself being rebuked and facing a disciplinary committee. He was forced to apologise.

Even if the prime minister may have thought Modi's resignation prudent for the sake of both his personal image and the unity of the coalition, there was absolutely no way he could go against the ferocity of the pro-Modi sentiment. He tried shelving the issue for a day but even this was resisted. Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pramod Mahajan intervened to say any delay would mean uncertainty and uncertainty could cause riots in Gujarat. He was backed by party General Secretary Sanjay Joshi, hitherto known for his rivalry with Modi in Gujarat.

By the time Vajpayee left for the public meeting, he had been infected by the mood. Departing from his prime ministerial grandeur he delivered a speech that could have been a replay from his heady Jan Sangh days. "We don't need lessons in secularism from anyone," he thundered. "India was secular even before the Muslims and Christians came."

"There are two faces of Islam," he continued, "one, pious and peaceful, and the other, fundamentalist and militant. Wherever there are Muslims, they are unwilling to live in peace."

The final sentence may have been unintended. But coupled with the uncompromising defence of Modi, it sent an unambiguous message to the party: Hindutva was back. The rest-refusal to succumb to unreasonable demands of allies-just followed. "The hierarchy of the NDA has been redefined. The BJP will be big brother again," gloated Maharashtra General Secretary Atul Bhatkalkar. By the time Home Minister L.K. Advani spoke about shedding defensiveness, getting back to the basics and effecting a radical overhaul of the party and the Government, the BJP was on a roll. Even criticism of Vajpayee's stridency was brushed aside. "I find it strange that when Atalji decried Hindu fundamentalism he was applauded but when he spoke about fundamentalism in the Muslim world he was criticised," said Law Minister Arun Jaitley.

Jaitley's belligerence reflected the crucial subtext of the Goa National Executive: the generational backlash. The rediscovery of Hindutva and the reassertion of the BJP's own identity was the younger generation's missive to the leadership. Advani was always with them and, this time, Vajpayee followed meekly. All because Modi had shown the way.

-Shankkar Aiyar

THE MODI EFFECT: NDA
Naidu is Clever but his Veto Power May Have Gone

Each year, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu celebrates Ugadi, the Telugu new year, in style. This year, the festivities were politically loaded. After the traditional tasting of the Ugadi pachadi-a bitter-sweet blend of mango, tamarind, neem flowers, jaggery, pepper and salt-on April 13, Naidu reeked of profundity: "The country should be a synthesis of all religions but must taste of oneness like the pachadi."

The reference was unmistakable: the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief was on a secular high. Two days earlier, the TDP politburo had called for Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's resignation. "Secularism is a fundamental principle for the TDP and strict adherence to it is one of the basic conditions for our support to the NDA," said Naidu.

Forever the tactician, Naidu based his stand on the assumption that it would be curtains for Modi after the BJP National Executive in Goa. Whether this was based on his political reading or a pre-determined move based on a signal from the PMO is unclear. Whatever the rationale, it aimed at both pressuring the BJP to act against Modi and then taking the credit for it at home.

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HOW THE ALLIES PLAYED N. CHANDRABABU NAIDU Believed that Vajpayee wanted Modi out and tried to hog the credit for that. Ended up triggering a BJP backlash. MAMATA BANERJEE Never sure whether in or out of the NDA, she tried piggybacking on the TDP. Was left high and dry and has now again made her peace with Vajpayee. GEORGE FERNANDES The sheet anchor of the NDA and the BJP's most loyal ally. Deftly turned the Modi issue into a Centre-state tussle and placated the regional parties. BAL THACKERAY Praised BJP for rediscovering itself in Goa and supported Modi fully. Hopes that Gujarat will influence Maharashtra.

Unfortunately for him, the BJP was in no mood to listen. Not only was Modi endorsed enthusiastically, the party sent a clear signal that it wasn't going to tolerate any nonsense from its allies. This left Naidu with two options: to either withdraw support or stomach the insult. Unwilling to do either, he did the next best thing-postpone a decision.

When the parliamentary session began, the TDP kept up its televised pressure for Modi's removal and hedged the issue of withdrawing support. Any likelihood of other NDA partners, the Trinamool Congress apart, teaming up to force Vajpayee's hand came a cropper after the NDA meeting on April 14. At that meeting, the Modi debate was projected as a federal issue and one that a regional party couldn't really fault.

The implication was the NDA was a collection of parties with strong territorial identities. Each constituent had to be allowed to reign unfettered in its area. For instance, the BJP couldn't dictate the BJD's choice of chief minister in Orissa. Neither could Naidu interfere in the BJP-ruled Gujarat. Even Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah conceded it was the BJP's "prerogative to name its own chief minister".

Anxious to effect an honourable retreat, the TDP delighted in the Gujarat Government shelving the question of assembly dissolution and said it would be satisfied if the Lok Sabha discussed Gujarat. An adjournment motion or a division under rule 184 wasn't on its mind any longer. In short, it wanted Modi to go but wouldn't make a great fuss if he chose to stay.

With the rest of the NDA falling in line, and the BSP readying to join the pack, Naidu preferred discretion to valour. A few months ago, such a crisis would have led to a flurry of activity between Delhi and Hyderabad and a predictable outcome: a hefty diversion of the Centre's resources to Andhra Pradesh. Vajpayee may still be as generous but as BJP chief whip V.K. Malhotra said, "The BJP will heed the NDA partners only to an extent."

The Modi effect has given the BJP the courage to draw a Lakshman rekha.

-Amarnath K. Menon and Sharad Gupta

THE MODI EFFECT: OPPOSITION
Sonia Smells her Chance and the Left Obliges

UNITY IN DIVERSITY: The Opposition has been given a chance to build its strength

"Naidu is a kingmaker without clothes. The BJP has called his bluff." Asaduddin Owaisi Muslim leader, Andhra Pradesh

No issue has galvanised the Opposition in the past three years as much as the oust-Modi campaign. The Congress, fresh from its victories in the assembly polls, launched a month-long nationwide relay hunger strike at Sabarmati Ashram from April 16 to unseat the Gujarat chief minister, and the People's Front complemented it with a rally in Delhi and support from the leftist intelligentsia.

Inside Parliament, a common goal lent cohesion to the Opposition. So overwhelming was the newfound camaraderie that CPI(M) leader Somnath Chatterjee threw open the doors of the People's Front to the Congress and the Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav traced his steps to Congress President Sonia Gandhi's office in Parliament for the first time in three years, thereby acknowledging her status as the leader of the Opposition.

On her part, Sonia acted prime ministerially. Inside the Lok Sabha, she walked up to Mulayam, Chatterjee and former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda to invite them for a strategy meeting at her office. She extended a hand of friendship to Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which reciprocated by attending a strategy session for the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha convened by leader of Opposition Manmohan Singh. Keeping the AIADMK's heightened comfort level with the NDA in mind, she also began exploring ties with the DMK and a senior Congress leader held talks with DMK Union Commerce Minister Murasoli Maran last week.

In effect, the Modi campaign did for the Opposition what the POTA vote did for the Government: accretion in numbers. The NCP and AIADMK, that had voted with the NDA for POTA, broke ranks and demanded an end to the Gujarat violence. The Opposition was also given a chance to gauge the mood of the NDA constituents. "Modi's actions and the BJP's defence of them have ended the political basis for this Government's existence. The allies have no reason for tying up with the BJP. It is only a matter of time before the alliance collapses," says CPI(M) MP Nilotpal Basu.

One of the primary objectives of the anti-Modi campaign has been to unsettle the regional parties associated with the BJP. "In most states, the threat to the Congress is not the BJP but regional parties. So far these parties managed to get Muslim votes because of their regional status and Hindu votes by aligning with the BJP. The focus of our campaign is to make the regional party pay for its tie-up with the BJP," says a Congress leader.

For the moment, the allies don't seem ready to pull the plug. In fact, they saw a face-saver in the Gujarat Cabinet's decision to defer assembly polls. While the Government is not bothered that the Budget runs the risk of being passed without discussion for the second consecutive year, the Congress is brimming with confidence as the BJP reverts to its Hindutva agenda. "A single-issue political party can never come to power in any democratic country," says Congress MP Prithviraj Chavan. The conviction is that the Modi debate has exposed the BJP's bankruptcy, which has given the Opposition a fresh momentum.

-Lakshmi Iyer