Cover Story

OTHER STORIES RELATED TO COVER Interview: Narendra Modi

Nearly 840 people, including the 58 killed in Godhra, have died as a result of the communal violence that erupted in Gujarat on February 27. As many as 1.07 lakh people are living in makeshift camps, a marginal decline from the 1.37 lakh a fortnight ago. According to estimates by the Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI), the loss to commerce and industry is a whopping
Rs 10,000 crore.

NARROW VISION: While the Congress is busy tapping the political situation in Gujarat (above), nearly one lakh Muslims (below) continue to live in makeshift camps

"There's a conspiracy to defame Gujarat. Its five crore people will reply." Narendra Modi Gujarat CM

In a devastated and emotionally scarred Gujarat, anti-Modi feelings would be expected to run high. Not least because Modi, as chief minister, failed to either anticipate the violence or keep it within acceptable bounds. Yet, paradoxically, the state is experiencing what Shankarbhai Patel, former president of Vatva Industry Association (the state's largest industrial estate) calls "a Modi wave". Where other chief ministers confronted with similar disasters found themselves politically vulnerable because of hostile public opinion, Modi is riding the crest of enhanced stature and popularity.

The reasons lie in his steely consistency and political positioning aimed at effecting a Hindu consolidation. First, Modi has uniformly projected the violence as a composite development that originated from the attack in Godhra. "They kept silent on February 27 and on the evening of February 28 the humaneness suddenly started overflowing," he told the crowd of 3,000 that had gathered at the Ahmedabad airport to welcome him on his return from Goa.

Cover Story

INDIA'S IMAGE ABROAD India has lost its moral high ground in the global community An act of violence-December 13-helped India acquire a moral high ground in the global community. Another- communal savagery in Gujarat-may have partly squandered it. For not only has the Gujarat violence blunted the Indian diplomatic offensive against Pakistan but has also inadvertently consolidated General Pervez Musharraf's position before his April 30 presidential referendum. However, Delhi has now sent an express advisory to all its missions abroad detailing the circumstances leading to the violence and the steps being taking to rehabilitate riot victims and bringing the culprits to justice. The US, meanwhile, has publicly regretted the events and privately shared its concern with powers like Russia, saying it should not increase the Indo-Pak tensions. In its internal report, the UK has virtually charged the Gujarat Government with inaction for failing to contain the "pre-planned violence". South Block fears other missions may have sent similar reports back home. Delhi's equations with the Gulf emirates have also been dented and only a rapid normalisation in Gujarat will help put diplomacy back on track. -Shishir Gupta

Second, he has expediently interpreted the concerted national offensive against him as an assault on Gujarati pride. "There is a conspiracy," says Modi nonchalantly, "to defame Gujarat's reputation. But the five crore people of Gujarat will give an effective reply." The more his opponents hurl invectives at him, the more he projects himself as the defiant underdog. "Modi doesn't have to do anything. Secularists and the Congress are consolidating the Hindus for him," says BJP MLA Bharat Pandya. Modi's conduct in Goa too has won him admiration. "No Gujarat chief minister in recent past has carried as much weight in Delhi as Modi," says Kalyanbhai Shah, GCCI president.

It is an approach that seems to be working. The opposition to Modi just hasn't picked up and the Congress' dharna outside the Sabarmati Ashram is pathetically token. Even NGOs and human rights groups are confronted by a hostile and unrepentant populace. Admits human rights activist Girish Patel: "Secularists are isolated because of the one-sided approach by some of us. We won't make headway unless we win the confidence of the majority."

The recent events have added to the isolation. Last week, in a move that provoked widespread derision, a group of Muslim leaders, dominated by the Congress and under the influence of the radical Tableeghi Jamaat, called for a boycott of the rescheduled high school examinations. The boycott failed but ended up reinforcing Modi's insinuation that a "conspiracy" stands between Gujarat and normalcy.

-Uday Mahurkar

THE MODI EFFECT: GOVERNANCE
It is Half Term but India is in Election Mode

BENEFICIARY: Sinha's budget may sail through Parliament as Vajpayee fights a bigger battle

"What is a government for? If it can't protect innocent lives, it should go." Deepak Parekh Chairman, HDFC

The stand-off between the Government and the Opposition has led to Parliament being adjourned since April 15. It has crippled the Government's legislative schedule. At the beginning of the budget session, the Government envisaged introducing 40 new bills and passing 23 pending ones-16 in the Lok Sabha and seven in the Rajya Sabha. Only three have made it.

A meaningful discussion on the Union budget-a must for any healthy democracy-is another casualty. Armed with suggested modifications from the BJP National Executive, Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha is set to effect a rollback. But neither these nor his original proposals will be subjected to any scrutiny. Since the passage of the Finance Bill is a must for the functioning of the Government, a guillotine will be applied and the budget passed.

The complete breakdown of all parliamentary norms is not a case in isolation. It reflects a larger shift from concerns of governance to partisan politics. The NDA Government is just about at its half-way mark. Yet, particularly since the Gujarat riots, the focus has shifted from economic reforms, fiscal responsibility and investment to emotive themes like Ayodhya, secularism and realignment. The country, it would seem, is in election mode as the Congress and BJP prepare for next year's assembly elections in six states.

By stealing the thunder in Goa, Modi hasn't made life any easier for governance. He has indicated that there are cynical short-cuts to popularity which don't have to bother about administration and good governance. In the past, this was a phenomenon confined to Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Now the malaise has gripped Gujarat-an economically vibrant state. The Modi effect may have taught the world that there are better places than India to lose sleep over.

-Lakshmi Iyer