SHIFTING SANDS: The success of the tie-up will depend on the mercurial Mayawati

On the previous two occasions that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) propped up Mayawati as the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader did not quite endear herself to her coalition partner. Take a look at how she ruffled BJP feathers during her three-month-long regime in 1995: she hurled abuses at Lord Ram and Mahatma Gandhi, held lavish celebrations to mark the anniversary of Dravida Kazhagam leader Periyar Ramaswamy Naicker (an acknowledged Ram-baiter) and banned the Bajrang Dal from Ayodhya.

Mayawati's second stint in 1997 was plagued by scams, including the Rs 100-crore Ambedkar park project and the float pump purchase and the agriculture farm purchase scandals. She created 13 new districts and named them all after Dalit heroes; filed false cases against over 2,000 upper caste Hindus under the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act and marginalised the upper caste bureaucracy in the state by promoting only Dalits.

Then in March 1999, on the eve of a no-trust vote in Parliament, Mayawati pledged Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee the support of her party's MPs. The next afternoon, the Vajpayee government was voted out by one vote after BSP MPs voted against the government.

COUNTER POINT: Vajpayee (left) needs the support of the BSP MPs to undercut a possible threat at the Centre, while Rajnath (right) fears he will be marginalised under Mayawati

That being the BJP's experience with the BSP, conventional wisdom would suggest that the party would have nothing to do with the mercurial Mayawati in future. But with the support of less than one-fourth of the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly-the BSP has 98 MLAs-she is all set to become chief minister of the state for the third time with the help of the BJP's 88 MLAs.

So have both sides decided to bury the hatchet? Far from it. In the BSP, Mayawati's writ runs and opinions to the contrary find their way to the waste bin. But in the BJP, state-level leaders and some at the Centre stoutly oppose a BJP-BSP alliance. Former chief minister Rajnath Singh and state party chief Kalraj Mishra did all they could to stall the alliance before they left Lucknow for Goa to attend the party's National Executive last week. In public, however, they were careful to say that they would stick by whatever decision the party's central leadership took. Aware of the attempts being made by Rajnath and Mishra to scuttle the alliance, Vajpayee, in his concluding address at Goa, singled out the former chief minister for a scathing attack, accusing him of "dumping the party organisation and sidelining senior ministers throughout his 14-month-rule before the election". Taking a dig at Rajnath's favourite line-"Jeete koi, sarkar hum hi banayenge (Whoever wins the elections, we will form the Government)"-the prime minister said, tongue firmly in cheek, "Now that we are forming the government why are some people opposing it?" Sources in the party say the sheer vigour of the attack forced Rajnath to abandon all opposition to the alliance.

The resistance to the partnership had nothing to do with the party's upper caste support base. It was all about furthering political careers. Rajnath, for example, is said to have opposed the alliance because he felt he would be marginalised in a Mayawati led set-up. Mishra is said to be keen to leave Uttar Pradesh as soon as possible and is known to be wooing the BJP's central leadership for a ministerial berth in Delhi.

At the other end are a bunch of leaders who are strong advocates of the alliance. Om Prakash Singh, for one, is eyeing the deputy chief ministership, confident that this would project him as a leader of the OBCs. Lalji Tandon is not known to have strong views either way and would be content with a lucrative portfolio. A leader without too many followers, Tandon's only asset is that he has the backing of the prime minister.

Vajpayee's approval of the alliance undoubtedly stems from his need for the support of the 14 BSP MPs in the Lok Sabha should the BJP's coalition partners pose a serious threat to his Government on the issue of the Gujarat riots. Besides, there are administrative compulsions. In less than three weeks, the Government will have had to win parliamentary approval for the ordinance declaring President's rule in the state. Though the NDA has a majority in the Lok Sabha, it would have been extremely difficult-if not impossible-for the Government to have the ordinance passed by the Upper House. That's a risk that the Vajpayee Government clearly did not want to take.

On the political front, there is Mulayam Singh Yadav for both Vajpayee and Mayawati to contend with. Time would have been a convenient ally for the Samajwadi Party leader-somewhat of an expert at poaching-to lure enough MLAs to form a government. That would have triggered further developments, even emboldened the Third Front to make another serious bid to knock Vajpayee from power at the Centre. The prime minister is said to be convinced that the BJP will get time to put its house in order during the year so that even if the unpredictable Mayawati betrays it a third time, the party will face the elections that follow as a much more cohesive unit. On the other hand, if the alliance manages to sail through without hiccups, there's nothing to stop the two parties from extending it to the next Lok Sabha elections. "It's a win-win situation for us," says a senior pro-alliance leader.

The party was cautious this time. Unlike the previous two occasions, the BJP showed no undue haste this time and also appears to be in no mood to give the BSP a free hand. On the other hand, if Mayawati was in a tearing hurry to revive the partnership, it was only because she knew that the more the state remained under Central rule, the easier it would be for Mulayam to poach MLAs. As negotiations began, the BJP insisted that the two parties be equal partners in the coalition. The point was put across to Mayawati by Union Human Resource Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi who is acting as the intermediary in the dialogue between the two parties. Mayawati, sources said, was agreeable, her only condition being that she would settle for nothing less than the chief ministership; she was ready to give the posts of deputy chief minister, Speaker of the Assembly and the home portfolio to the BJP.

From the BJP's point of view, the success or failure of the alliance depends entirely on the mercurial Mayawati. On the two previous occasions when the parties tied up, the BSP consolidated its position among its Dalit support base by keeping up its anti-upper caste tirade. But in the recent assembly elections, Mayawati was liberal in handing out party tickets to the upper castes. If the caste composition of her party's MLAs in the recent elections is any indication, Mayawati will have no trouble shedding her anti-upper caste image and expanding her party's support base.

The pro-alliance lobby within the BJP is propounding a new, if somewhat incredible theory to advance its cause-that the impetuous lady has mellowed. "Mayawati understands the coalition dharma. She is not as unpredictable as she is made out to be," says a senior BJP functionary. The optimists evidently see the alliance as a new beginning. But sceptics fear that its experience with the BSP in 1995, 1997 and at the Centre in 1999 has made the BJP leadership sadder but not wiser.