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There are leaders who find politically uncertain times the most convenient to search for their conscience. Ram Vilas Paswan is one such. Union coal minister till last week, Paswan pulled out of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Cabinet, and his latest party offering, the Lok Janshakti, out of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), hours before the Lok Sabha debate on April 30. The Opposition-sponsored motion sought to censure the Government on the continuing violence in Gujarat.

VOTE BAIT: The Government has survived but its image has taken a beating

As the discussion began, Minister of State for External Affairs Omar Abdullah, of the National Conference (NC), also announced his decision to quit. With the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) having already declared its intention not to participate in the voting, the Congress-led Opposition was anticipating an April 1999-type closing that saw the then Vajpayee government being thrown out by a solitary vote.

GOLDEN HOUR: The Congress has gained from the BJP allies' trial by fire in the debate

Far from being a close call, the voting at the end of a 16-hour, often acrimonious debate showed that despite the cracks in the coalition the Government was safe. The Opposition had pinned its hopes too high. The Government garnered 281 votes, the Opposition merely 194. "The Vajpayee Government may have won, but the nation is the ultimate loser," fumed RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav, assuming the uncharacteristic role of democracy's latest torchbearer. Rural Development Minister M. Venkaiah Naidu showed no trace of emotion when he said, "Only numbers count in democracy, not sentiments."

THE OPPOSITION

Profits of Loss For the first time in four years, there was unanimity across party lines Even though the opposition failed to carry it through, its finest hour in the 13th Lok Sabha was the censure motion on the Gujarat situation. For it divided the ruling NDA, while uniting the fractured Opposition. Though there was no accretion in the Opposition numbers, the motion provided it much psychological comfort. The motion under Rule 184, which entails voting, put to test the NDA constituents' commitment to secularism. It took a toll on the Government, with the cohesiveness of the coalition eroded. If one minor constituent copped out of the alliance, another abstained, a third nearly suffered a split and the regional bulwark, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), that was supporting the Government from outside staged a walkout. "The Opposition succeeded in putting us through agnipariksha," admitted Janata Dal (United) Parliamentary Party leader Devendra Prasad Yadav, who defied the party directive to vote against the motion. The Congress attack on the Government was spearheaded by Sonia Gandhi. Besides an impressive intervention, she was frequently seen egging on her party colleagues when the House was engulfed in chaos. Now, party leaders feel the Congress stands to gain from this trial by fire of the BJP allies. "By exposing the TDP, the motion has improved our stock in Andhra Pradesh. In the next elections, we need to pick up more seats from some states to offset our near zero presence in others," says a senior Congress leader. In the Rajya Sabha, the Government initially robbed the Opposition of the pleasure of savouring its numerical superiority. In a dramatic move last Thursday it associated with the Rule 170 motion that entails voting, catching the left parties off-guard. However, by endorsing the motion the Government also committed itself to taking certain steps under Article 355. The article decrees it shall be "the duty of the Union to protect every state against aggression and internal disturbance and to ensure that the government of every state is carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution". "By associating with the motion the Government has implicitly admitted that the Gujarat Government is not functioning according to the Constitution. Directives under Article 355 will have to be followed with Article 356 (President's Rule) or Article 352 (Proclamation of Emergency). The Government's action has opened doors for a judicial remedy," points out CPI(M) MP Nilotpal Basu. Whether the Government sewed up unanimity in the Rajya Sabha to save face or to apply salve, for the first time in four years of the NDA rule, the Opposition showed a cross-party unanimity which may augur well for it in the future. -Lakshmi Iyer

The parliamentary test may have been won by the Government but it had to count its losses as well. After the continued deadlock in the Lok Sabha and the hype outside over Gujarat ever since Parliament resumed the budget session in mid-April, it has been a fight for survival for the Government. It did survive, but its image was badly bruised. In the past, the BJP could afford to brush aside Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee's outrageous demands as the tantrums of a temperamental woman. But this time, even the hitherto reliable allies began to play truant. In hindsight, it is clear that some of the allies are dispensable but it would be naive to assume that the coalition emerged stronger after the debate. If anything, the vote pattern proved that many alliance partners had no choice but to stick to the NDA despite the BJP's hardline posture on Hindutva.

The voting of the alliance partners was dictated mainly by their own political compulsions. Ahead of next year's assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh, the TDP could do little else but abstain. The alternative? Hand over the substantial Muslim votes in the state to the Congress. The Trinamool, still smarting from last year's rout in the West Bengal assembly elections, had no electoral compulsions and voted for the Government.

SLING SHOTS

"The Congress president is an antique smuggler." Prabhu Nath Singh, Samata Party MP

"Women being raped, what's new? Did this not happen in 1984?" George Fernandes, Defence Minister

"Uma Bharati speaks like a Nazi volunteer." Chandra Shekhar, SJP President

"Vaiko is a murderer, a terrorist and an anti-national." Mani Shankar Aiyar, Congress MP

"Mulayam once had Mayawati dragged by her hair." Uma Bharati, Sports Minister

The NC's dilemma was somewhat akin to that of the TDP. Elections in Jammu and Kashmir are due later this year and the party could not afford to annoy the state's majority Muslim community. At the same time, the party faced the risk of a double anti-incumbency backlash-being in power both at the Centre and the state. But since it had no intention to antagonise the Centre, it decided to abstain and sacrifice the ministerial berth of Abdullah, who in any case is scheduled to take over as the NC chief in the near future.

The DMK had in the past voiced its reservation over the events in Gujarat but was forced to vote with the Government because it couldn't afford to be seen on the same side of the political divide as arch rival AIADMK. The Janata Dal (United) was anything but united. While party chief Sharad Yadav is a member of the Vajpayee Cabinet, his Parliamentary Party leader Devendra Prasad Yadav, sore over not being accommodated in the Cabinet, decided to adopt the moral highground and abstaining despite being present in the House.

Major parliamentary debates are usually covered live by Doordarshan, but with the Government ordering the switching off of the cameras, viewers across the country were deprived of the chance to see their elected representatives indulge in doublespeak. In this case, the NDA leaders who spoke the language of the Opposition and blasted the Narendra Modi Government for its alleged inefficiency, but ultimately voted against the censure motion.

While the NDA's image has taken a beating, the debate has boosted the BJP's morale. Having crossed the Lok Sabha halfway mark of 272 despite the desertion of key allies-thanks to the trade-off with the BSP's Mayawati which brought 13 crucial votes-party leaders will now be eager to put an end to frequent threats being doled out by them. "Enough is enough. Now the BJP will call the shots in the NDA," said a BJP minister after the debate.

The obvious reference was to the TDP, Trinamool, JD (U), and NC leaders' attempts to form an informal pressure group within the NDA to force the Government to seek Modi's resignation.

The BJP has now proved to N. Chandrababu Naidu that his party is not indispensable. So long as the TDP doesn't vote with its arch rival Congress-the political equivalent of the Muslim League building the Ram temple-Vajpayee's Government is safe. But only as long as the battle is fought in Parliament. The outcome could be different if instead of the honourable MPs the people were to decide the Government's fate.