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OTHER STORIES RELATED TO COVER Interview: Abdul Ghani Lone Key Players in J&K

The killers of Abdul Ghani Lone, leading light of the separatist All Party Hurriyat Conference, could not have chosen a more opportune time to target the man who was seen fast emerging as a rallying point for pro-dialogue moderates in the secessionist camp in the run-up to assembly elections in the strife-torn state. The sensational killing coincided with the first day of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's three-day politico-military visit to Jammu and Kashmir on May 21.

LAST OF THE MODERATES: Lone's killing could scare separatists away from the polls

While the objective of the Vajpayee visit was to enable the prime minister to make a first-hand assessment of the military mobilisation and chair a meeting of the Unified Command in Srinagar, the political overtones of the visit were suddenly enhanced with Lone's assassination. His killing turned the spotlight on the Centre's plans to hold elections in the state later this year and its efforts to get maximum political participation in the polls. It also effectively put a spoke in the Centre's ongoing exercise to disentangle at least a section of the Hurriyat leadership from the clutches of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Only two days before his death, Lone was in Delhi finetuning his strategy for the polls which included the participation of his son Sajjad and other second-rung leaders of his party in the elections. Officials now fear Lone's slaying could scare away separatists outside the Hurriyat like Jammu and Kashmir Democratic Freedom Party chief Shabir Shah from the elections.

NEVER GIVE UP: Pro-Pakistan elements shouted anti-election slogans at Lone's funeral

The latest militant strike makes it clear that Pakistan is determined to disrupt the Kashmir polls. With the militant gun now turning against its mentor, the threat was chillingly loud and clear: no one wedded to the separatist cause should turn moderate and talk peace. The choices are not many: you are either a militant or a martyr.

Following the killing, it is the Hurriyat which is feeling the chill the most. "It is a hard blow," said Hurriyat Chairman Abdul Ghani Bhat. But, far from blaming any militant outfit, the pro-secessionists lost no time in striking strident "anti-election" stance-an implicit signal to Pakistan-backed militants that none of them will smoke the peace pipe with Delhi. Their fear is obvious. Sajjad Lone first charged the ISI with masterminding the killing but quickly backtracked, calling his initial reaction an "emotional outburst".

THE SUCCESSOR: Farooq is expected to pass the baton of state politics to his son Omar (left)

Lone was in fact the first among the separatists to sense the growing public groundswell against Pakistan-backed violence. By taking an anti-foreign militants stand, he broke ranks with the Hurriyat earning the wrath of the militants' masters in Pakistan. It was indeed a U-turn for Lone who had in 1994 welcomed the Pakistani militants with open arms, calling them "mehmaan mujahideen" (guest crusaders).

Of late, Lone had begun to realise that Kashmiri militancy was losing its edge and was keen to wrest control of the separatist movement in the name of imparting an indigenous edge to it. He wasn't the only one to adopt a pro-dialogue posture that was diametrically opposite the hardliners' "no Pakistan-no talks" stance. The Centre's Kashmir strategists have also been counting on Mirwaiz Omar Farooq, another moderate voice in the Hurriyat ranks. A globe-trotter, Omar Farooq has a better worldview of the Kashmir issue, something other Hurriyat members lack. In fact, their participation in the Dubai conclave in April, attended also by leaders from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, had given the impression that the Lone-Omar duo was veering around to breaking bread with Delhi.

So miffed was Hurriyat chief Bhat with their new moderate stance that he warned them against betrayal. Lone's exit has not only nipped the pro-dialogue leanings in the Hurriyat quarters but also altered the power equations in favour of pro-Pakistan hardliners led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani who are now calling the shots.

There are other crucial straws in the wind. The significance of the "no election boycott" stand recently adopted by the Jamaat-e-Islami, a key constituent of the Hurriyat, has not been lost on many in Kashmir. The tactical shift by the Jamaat, once a fountainhead of militancy, is seen to be in consonance with the new mood in the Valley. "We have no right to force the people to boycott the election," says respected Jamaat chief Ghulam Mohammad Bhat-a stand that, however, is at variance with Jamaat's top gun Geelani, the linchpin of the Hurriyat's anti-election rhetoric. Jamaat, well-placed sources say, has been imploring Hurriyat leaders not to "miss the bus" but to take the political route as a step forward in the separatist movement.

The emergence of pro-dialogue voices coupled with the vertical split in the Hizb-ul Mujahideen was unsettling enough for Pakistan-backed militant outfits to strike with vengeance. Since January at least 25 anti-election threats have emanated from militant quarters that include the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. There are other indications of militants targeting pro-election forces: 16 activists of the National Conference (NC), the only credible political force in the Valley, have been killed in the past three months. The attacks are becoming more and more brutal-like the May 21 beheading of two NC workers.

Left to itself, the Centre would like to have as many players as possible in the election game. Delhi's calculations are that a credible election with a reasonable turnout in the Valley will go a long way in puncturing Pakistan's designs on Kashmir. "Roping in the separatists in the political process will blunt the anti-election tirade," says former Union home minister and current chief of the People's Democratic Party Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. He, however, adds, "Only a clean election will lead to a breakthrough on Kashmir."

Motivating the pro-secessionist elements to participate in the polls may now be a tough call. And after Lone's killing, the Government's gamble on separatists' participation hinges on Abdul Majid Dar, leader of the breakaway Hizb-ul and architect of the short-lived cease-fire in July 2000. Dar's pro-peace overtures may now have even fewer takers among the separatists. Though a sizable section of the Hizb-ul cadres are said to be moving into Dar's fold, there are doubts on whether he can consolidate his position. "Dar runs the risk of becoming a non-entity if he changes his militant stripes," says an intelligence official.

Already a fierce internecine war is shaping up in Hizb-ul ranks. Militants supporting Pakistan-based Hizb-ul chief Syed Salahuddin have of late been owning up to most of the violent actions to establish their edge and chip away at Dar's credibility. And Delhi's divide-and-deal game plan to facilitate Dar's emergence as a rallying point for disparate secessionists may have already gone awry. "The elections are not a forbidden fruit as long as it leads to a resolution of the Kashmir issue," says Shabir Shah, the only credible separatist face outside the Hurriyat fold. Curiously, Shah had welcomed Vajpayee's Kashmir visit last week but his enthusiasm evaporated following Lone's killing.

Unless a new polarisation emerges within the separatist forces-a remote possibility at present-the elections in the Valley may turn out to be by and large a single-horse race. On the issue of autonomy, its key plank in the 1996 polls, the NC prefers to go on the backfoot, but Farooq Abdullah's party enjoys considerable goodwill in rural Kashmir. His son Omar, Union minister of state for external affairs, is confident that the party will return to power. "I think with a new chief ministerial candidate and a new programme of action, we can return to power," he says. Riyaz Punjabi, who chairs the nc's regional committee, agrees: "Despite bad governance, there is no alternative to the NC now. But it is possible that it will be returned to power with a considerably reduced majority."

The NC had roped in the dapper Omar to take over as party chief to counter the charisma of separatists like Mirwaiz Omar Farooq. The buzz in the party is that once he does that, he will be elevated to cabinet rank and his father will remain chief minister till the elections. Says Omar: "Much will depend on where my father is at the time of elections." Farooq has set his eyes on a move to Delhi to take up residence, if not at Rashtrapati Bhavan, at least as the vice-president. If there are problems within the NDA on that score, the chances are that as a compromise he is likely to be inducted into the Union Cabinet. And therein lies the rub. The Centre's think tanks believe that at a time when the state is reconciling itself to the democratic process, Delhi would be better served with a tough-talking Farooq heading the NC government in Srinagar. Farooq, on the other hand, is keen on a shift to Delhi, and a cabinet berth could compensate for missing out on becoming president or vice-president. The ultimate political irony would be if father and son end up trading places.

Until last week, all that the Government has had to offer-explicitly rubbed in by Vajpayee during his meeting with political groups in Srinagar-was its promise of free and fair elections. Considering Kashmir's track record of rigging, the Centre is said to be mulling over the prospects of holding elections after putting the state under Central rule. This is in response to growing demands from non-NC political quarters in Jammu and Kashmir. "That will be a small sacrifice to make the elections a level playing field," says Mufti Sayeed. But the NC scoffs at Delhi's efforts to placate the separatists. "The Centre cannot let us down for standing up against militancy," says a senior NC leader.

The NC also dreads the prospect of the Centre making a deal with the separatists on a political package. Officials negotiating with the separatists are persuading the NC to leave as many as 18 of the 76 seats to the separatists but the party is not willing to concede more than 10. "Free and fair elections does not mean that the NC will lie low and let these people walk all over us. Let the people decide," says Omar. Officially, however, the negotiators maintain that the Centre is not making any deal with the separatists. "We are not interested in the NC losing or the separatists winning. We only want free and fair elections," says one of them.

What stood out at the end of Vajpayee's three-day trip to the state last week was the Centre's firm resolve to hold the elections despite the Pakistan-backed terror campaign to scuttle them. Vajpayee backed up his resolve by coupling the bread and butter concerns of the people of the state via a Rs 6,165-crore omnibus development package with a promise to hold fair and free assembly elections. " I stand guarantee for this," he said, in a clear signal to the Kashmiris that Delhi would make a break from the state's history of rigged poll. And by indicating that he is not averse to talking to the separatists, he is holding out an olive branch. But in the present climate of fear, it may as well be a poisoned chalice.

-with Rajeev Deshpande