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The thumping victory of the AIADMK in the assembly bypolls overshadows Jayalalithaa's dismal governance in the past year. India Today's Arun Ram reports on the chief minister's renewed confidence.
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 CURRENT ISSUE JUNE 24, 2002  

BOOKS

Ace Provocateur

A muscular argument that provides a complacent India with enemies bigger than Pakistan

By Amitabh Mattoo

    Books
OTHER STORIES RELATED TO BOOKS

Doctor's Dilemma
Book of Hate
Authorspeak

It is often mistakenly assumed that the great Indian nuclear debate is a contest between nuclear advocates and anti-nuclear dissenters. The truth is that Indian opponents of nuclear weapons do not count in any significant sense. Within the public domain the influence of anti-nuclear activists is restricted to a few middle-class radicals, and their presence in the policy community is virtually negligible. Nuclear angst still does not strike a chord with much of the Indian imagination. Indeed, despite systematic attempts at generating nuclear dissent in this country, often motivated by other countries, most Indians still view the country's nuclear might with considerable pride. The real nuclear tussle, in both an intellectual and political sense, is among those who agree with at least one proposition: India made the right decision by going overtly nuclear in May 1998. But beyond this limited agreement, there are stark differences. Sharp disagreements over the nature of threats to India, the purpose behind acquiring atomic weapons, the size and shape of the country's nuclear arsenal and the current state of capabilities makes the nuclear debate a rich if sometimes a fractious one.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
AND INDIAN SECURITY:
THE REALIST FOUNDATIO-
NS OF SECURITY

By Bharat Karnad
Macmillan
Price: Rs 795
Pages: 724

The main faultline within nuclear advocates is between the so-called minimalists and the maximalists. Minimalists take a more relaxed, a more political and, dare we say a more Indian, view of nuclear deterrence. For them the credibility of Indian nuclear deterrence does not lie in numbers or in the baroque infrastructure often associated with the command and control of these most destructive weapons of mass destruction. Instead, the minimalists feel that having demonstrated its nuclear capability and having at least a rudimentary delivery capability, India can now be more or less assured that it has the means to deter countries that are likely to pose a nuclear threat in the foreseeable future. Minimalists would also argue that nuclear weapons are only one, and probably not the most important, instrument in the country's resources that can enable it to carve out a niche in the international system. And that India can and has developed a nuclear doctrine which need not mimic western nuclear theology or replicate the Cold War experience.

In contrast, maximalists view the minimalist posture with deep scepticism and concern, and fiercely argue that there can be no short cut, no quick fix to acquiring a credible nuclear deterrent. Bharat Karnad is inarguably one of the most "muscular" of the maximalists, to use former US deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott's description of his writings. While Karnad has extensively published in scholarly journals in the past, Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security is clearly his magnum opus. And despite the 700-odd pages, it is also one of the more readable accounts of nuclear politics produced by a strategic thinker in India. Be that as it may, the book will undoubtedly provoke sharp comment and may cause considerable offence for Karnad does not shy away from often taking personal jibes at individuals and institutions that he disagrees with intellectually.

But whether you agree with Karnad or disagree with him, there is a refreshing clarity to his views. A clarity that will make his volume a standard text for some, but will frighten many others who will profoundly disagree with his Machtpolitik. Consider the most provocative of Karnad's assumptions. For him, the threats to the country are not just those from two of India's nuclear neighbours, but also potentially from the United States. India, for him, needs to protect itself specifically "against the wilfulness of the United States and the sustained, if opportunistic belligerence of China". And the recipe: "To deal with the more immediate nuclear threat from China and to deter from the US coercively turning its military prowess against India on any pretext in the future demands the early acquisition of strategic armaments that the Indian government has shied away from, namely megaton-yield thermonuclear warheads and weapons married to intercontinental range ballistic and cruise missiles in sizable numbers." And while Karnad has little faith in the Indian political leadership, which he finds "pickled in self doubt", he believes that the bulk of the Indian people are rooted in the "vagaries of Machtpolitik" depicted in the ancient Hindu texts and "conditioned by life-long deprivation, are hard as nails". In sum, contentious, controversial, sometimes disturbing, but highly readable.

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