BACKING INDIA: US Ambassador Robert Blackwill (left) and Rumsfeld with Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh

This is, in every sense of the phrase, a defining moment in the history of India's decade-old war against cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. Admittedly, it has come with considerable help from Washington. Even so, it has the potential to permanently end infiltration of Pakistan-backed terror groups. Or, in a worst-case scenario, keep them penned up till the October elections in Jammu and Kashmir are over, in itself a major victory for Indian diplomacy.

No wonder External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh looked tired but elated after the visits of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. While Armitage had conveyed the unambiguous message that Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf has decided to "permanently" end infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir, Rumsfeld declared, "I have seen indications that the Al-Qaida is operating near the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir."

In effect, the international community is now substantiating the Indian stand that Pakistan is squarely behind the wave of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. South Block has other reasons to celebrate. Since the Kaluchak massacre, the External Affairs Ministry and the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) have shown remarkable synergy in handling the international community and the diplomatic-military offensive against Pakistan. For the past month, Jaswant and the man widely perceived as his bete noire, Brajesh Mishra, national security adviser and principal secretary to the prime minister, have marched in step and consulted each other on the Indian response to Pakistani actions and pressure from the international community almost on a daily basis. The duo gambled on coercive diplomacy rather than the military option against Pakistan and it appears to have paid off, at least for the present.

THE HEAVYWEIGHTS: Armitage and Advani in broad agreement

Shortly after returning from a visit to the subcontinent, UK's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told the House of Commons on June 10 that Britain was convinced there was a "clear link" between the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. More significantly, Straw added that there was no point in getting involved in the "historiographical exercise" of UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir. Instead, it was important to find a way out to resolve the "bilateral dispute that has international implications".

For Islamabad and General Pervez Musharraf-till recently the poster boy of the global coalition against terror-the irony could not have been starker and the message more explicit. Straw's House of Commons statement and Rumsfeld's comments are clear indicators that the major global players now side with Delhi on its stand that de-escalation on the India-Pakistan borders and a dialogue with Islamabad is only possible after a visible end of cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and dismantling of the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Addressing the Asia Society on June 10, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said: "Musharraf has assured us the cessation of activity would be visible and would be permanent and would be followed by other activities that had to do with the dismantling of camps that led to the capacity to conduct these kind of operations." This is precisely the response India was hoping for.

In diplomacy, there are no free lunches. The US and UK want both India and Pakistan to undertake a cycle of mutually reinforced actions that lead to de-escalation of tensions and finally a dialogue on all outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir. That process is already in motion. Last week, Delhi lifted the January 1 ban on Pakistani aircraft and airlines using Indian airspace, recalled the operationally deployed Indian Navy's warships from the Arabian Sea and decided "in principle" to send its high commissioner back to Islamabad.

India's actions are based on its assessment that infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir is visibly on the decline. Intelligence reports say that only 40-45 infiltrators had crossed the LoC since Musharraf's aggressive May 27 speech and satellite imagery has shown tents housing terrorists near Muzaffarabad in PoK being taken down. During his recent visit, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Anatoly Safanov had been taken to PoK by the Pakistani Army in order to convince Moscow of steps Islamabad had taken against Kashmir terrorists and their infrastructure. This information was later conveyed to Delhi by the Russians.

Further, India is no longer making an issue of the list of 20 terrorists whose extradition it has been demanding. Armitage, during his visit, had told his Indian counterpart that while Musharraf was committed to ending infiltration, he had cited "Pakistan honour and dignity" to justify Islamabad's refusal to act on the list. The Indian Government has also selected Harsh Bhasin as India's high commissioner to Pakistan though his name has not yet been sent to Islamabad for formal accreditation. On other issues raised by the Americans, India has dug in its heels. One was that India should withdraw its strike aircraft from the forward bases near the India-Pakistan border. India says it wants Musharraf to not only turn off "the tap of infiltration but drain the reservoir feeding Kashmir terrorism" before it will agree to any such step. Delhi has pointed out that as late as June 8, six terrorists tried to cross the LoC in Mendhar sector in Jammu and Kashmir despite the presence of a Pakistani Army picket on their route. Delhi told Rumsfeld that terrorists are still waiting to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir from "launch pads" in PoK. The Indian assessment is that more than 2,500 terrorists are massed along the LoC in Gurez, Kupwara, Baramullah, Uri and Poonch sectors.

STAYING ALERT: Indian troops will stay put till after the Kashmir elections

Further, radio intercepts prove that PoK-based terrorists are still in touch with their fellow jehadis in Jammu and Kashmir, exhorting them to keep their powder dry for another day. The Indian leadership made it clear to Rumsfeld that the US could not "segment" its fight against terrorism by restricting its anti-Al-Qaida operations to Afghanistan and Pakistan tribal areas. Implicit in this was the suggestion that the US should also take action against terrorist groups such as LeT and JeM in Pakistan, the support base of the global Al-Qaida network.

The key issue now is a mechanism to patrol the LoC and monitor activities in PoK. Delhi has proposed joint patrolling of the LoC by troops from both sides while Islamabad wants international observers. Home Minister L.K. Advani told a British newspaper that India would prefer international observers in PoK instead, since terrorists were infiltrating from the Pakistani side.

The bottom line, as far as Delhi is concerned, is that once tension is reduced and infiltration visibly ended, India would like a joint patrolling mechanism with Pakistani troops. Both sides would be equipped with sophisticated electronic sensors to detect infiltration. In fact, during his trip to the US in January, Advani was specially briefed by Kent Biringer, director, Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico, on how electronic sensors can be used to make infiltration difficult for PoK-based terrorists. The US may be willing to sell underground sensors to India as part of the direct military sales under the ongoing bilateral defence cooperation though Rumsfeld said that the proposal for sensors "did not reach any conclusion". Washington, however, has indicated its willingness to share technical and human intelligence on terrorists and terror groups with both India and Pakistan.

The Indian perception is that Pakistan will check infiltration but at the same time ask its jehadis operating inside Jammu and Kashmir to raise the level of violence close to the assembly elections in the state. Islamabad can then claim that the violence is part of the indigenous "freedom struggle" and not terrorism. Islamabad is hoping its current moves to stop infiltration will give it the leverage to exert international pressure on Delhi to resolve the Kashmir dispute on a priority basis. On a visit to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia last week, Musharraf termed the recent Indian steps to defuse tensions "cosmetic" and reiterated his three-point formula for peace in the region: de-nuclearisation of South Asia, strengthening of deterrents and resolution of the Kashmir issue.

The Indian government is fully aware that the Americans are planning some action against Iraq, possibly by September. Hence, American pressure for the start of a dialogue on Kashmir and de-escalation of forces can only get stronger. However, Delhi is taking no chances. Indian Army commanders met last week and decided that there will be no change in force "posturing" or withdrawal of troops along the western borders at least till the Jammu and Kashmir elections since it would be difficult to mobilise again if there is another terrorist strike. The commanders decided to undertake "cost cutting measures" (it costs Rs 33 lakh per day to operationally maintain a strike corps near the border). The Indian Air Force has already stopped augmenting its forward air bases with more personnel last week but there is no change in its operational status. Even though the navy has pulled back, it has the capability to re-deploy within 12 hours.

All this is to convey to Washington and Islamabad that the threat of war may be receding but Delhi will need a lot more evidence before Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee finally agrees to shake Musharraf's hand.